Adaptive strategies to Mitigate the Impacts of Climate Change on European Freshwater Ecosystems

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1 SEVENTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME THEME 6 Environment (including Climate Change) Adaptive strategies to Mitigate the Impacts of Climate Change on European Freshwater Ecosystems Martin Kernan Environmental Change Research Centre University College London Collaborative large-scale integrating project Started: Feb 1st 2010 Duration: 4 years Consortium of 25 partners (Europe, Canada & Australia)

2 The REFRESH programme is concerned with the development of a system that will enable water managers to design cost-effective restoration programmes for freshwater ecosystems at the local and catchment scales that account for the expected future impacts of climate change and land-use change in the context of the Water Framework and Habitats Directives At its centre is a process-based evaluation of the specific adaptive measures that might be taken at these different scales to minimise the expected adverse consequences of climate change on freshwater quantity, quality and biodiversity.

3 REFRESH Project structure WP1 Strategies, scenarios, stakeholders T1 Adaptation Strategies WP2 Rivers T2 Scenarios T3 Engaging Stakeholders WP3 Lakes WP4 Wetlands T2 Drought T2 Water level T2 Drought/Flood T3 Nutrients T3 Nutrients, OM T3 Nutrients WP6 Cost effectiveness WP5 Integrated Modelling Ecosystem models Model Chaining Management options Uncertainty Bridging WP7 Dissemination Best practice strategy Stakeholder workshops Demonstration case studies Policy oriented reports Profiling catchments Sub-catchments Scoping solutions Cost-effectiveness analyses Wider benefits

4 WP1 Strategies, scenarios, stakeholders Setting the scene.. Adaptation Strategies Reviews of strategies for rivers, wetlands and lakes at different scales Scenarios for Europe ( ) CLIMATE LAND-USE N DEPOSITION WATER RESOURCE USE The scenario framework will be used to develop a series of coherent storylines for demonstration catchments Engaging stakeholders Early dialogue with the user community with respect to the scenarios and storylines to be used in REFRESH Explore potential barriers to the implementation of measures being evaluated.

5 Further our understanding of the processes that govern the relationship between temperature, hydrology (and salinity) and nutrient/organic matter loading and the structure, function and biodiversity of freshwater ecosystems; WP2 Rivers WP3 Lakes WP4 Wetlands T2 Water level T2 Drought/Flood T3 Nutrients, OM T3 Nutrients T2 Drought T3 Nutrients Co-ordinated Experiments Rivers & Wetlands Field & mesocosms experiments, time series analyses, palaeolimnology, modelling Understanding how the functioning of freshwater ecosystems is affected by climate change While earlier studies on climate change, including Euro-limpacs, focused on trophic structure, relatively little is known about how climate change affects ecosystem functioning. Controlling ecosystem functioning is at the heart of adaptive management

6 STREAMS & RIPARIAN WETLAND EXPERIMENTS STREAMS Better understand temperature processes Identify temperature disturbance regime Better understand low flow/drought processes Identify low flow/drought disturbance regime Better understand nutrient / OM processes Identify nutrient / OM disturbance regime To understand better the processes and effects of multiple stress induced by climate/global change upon river ecosystem functioning and biodiversity and use this to identify adaptive management measures. Low Low Nutrients Shading experiments Nutrients WETLANDS Impacts of temperature on wetland functioning and biodiversity Impacts of changes in flooding and drought on wetland functioning and biodiversity Impacts of nutrient loading on effects of increased temperature and flooding (interactions with changes in hydrologicl regime) High Low Nutrients High High Flooding experiments Drought/low-flow experiments

7 LAKE EXPERIMENTS Temperature constraints on management success in lakes Water level (salinity) constraints Nutrient and organic matter constraints on management success in lakes Mesocosms Effects on trophic structure, ecological function and biodiversity Lake level experiments

8 Field experiments in along latitude gradient in Europe (from Sweden to Turkey)

9 WP2 Rivers WP3 Lakes WP4 Wetlands T2 Drought T2 Water level T2 Drought/Flood T3 Nutrients T3 Nutrients, OM T3 Nutrients THRESHOLDS & REFERENCE CONDITIONS Identify ecological relevant thresholds and dynamic reference conditions in streams INDICATORS Identify key effect parameters (indicators) for climate change in streams What are temperature, flooding and nutrient loading thresholds for riparian wetland key functions and biodiversity? Can we define reference conditions? Which ecological response variables can be used as indicators for wetland key functions and biodiversity? Tools for vulnerability assessment? Guidelines on thresholds for temperature, water level, salinity, nutrients and organic matter in European lakes identification of reference conditions with a flexible, change based methodology Identify ecological indicators and functional response parameters of temperature, flow and nutrients / OM ADAPTATION Identify adaptive management strategies in streams, riparian wetlands and lakes METHODS review existing data; meta-analysis; spatial and time series datasets; palaeolimnology

10 New indicators of functional response, tools for assessing vulnerability and dynamic reference conditions In REFRESH we will develop a new set of system indicators for freshwaters focusing essentially on ecological indicators sensitive to the functional response of rivers, lakes and wetlands to changes in temperature, flow/waterlevel and nutrient/organic matter loading. We will also develop new tools for assessing vulnerability to climate change which take into account both site specific and landscape (e.g. associated with connectivity, dispersal migration) scale threats. We will examine how the concept of a dynamic reference condition can be built into WFD and HD methodologies.

11 WP2 Rivers WP3 Lakes WP4 Wetlands T2 Drought T2 Water level T2 Drought/Flood T3 Nutrients T3 Nutrients, OM T3 Nutrients WP5 Integrated Modelling Ecosystem models Model Chaining Management options Uncertainty Bridging INTEGRATED CATCHMENT MODELLING Ultimate objective develop parsimonious integrated models robust simulations of future water quantity, quality and ecology at the catchment scale Objectives better: 1. Inclusion of ecology 2. Connectivity 3. Scenario assessment (with uncertainty) to design adaptation and cost effective restoration at local and catchment scales

12 1. Integration of ecosystem models for rivers, lakes and wetlands with models of key ecological vulnerability indicators to determine interactions between climate and land use management change and freshwater ecology Catchment Biogeochemical Model Ecological response functional parameters

13 2. Integrated and chained models to couple river, lake and wetland systems to the river catchment scale Chaining the new hydrological water quality ecological models means complex systems which incorporate a mixture of rivers, lakes, wetlands and the riparian zone can be considered

14 COST-EFFECTIVE MITIGATION ADAPTATION AND RESTORATION STRATEGIES

15 OBJECTIVES To discover what anthropogenic practices compromise water quality and/or environmental quality in selected European catchments To find cost-effective means of mitigating climate-change induced damage to water quality and consider reinstatement possibilities To assess whether these compliance costs are proportionate To assess whether compliance delivers changes in the values of other ecosystem services

16 Application of model chains at key demonstration sites to determine the ecological response (using vulnerability indices) to climate and land-cover change for different adaptation, mitigation and restoration options Downscaled climate scenarios Land use scenarios Deposition scenarios Water use scenarios

17 WP1. Adaptation / response Storylines / scenarios MODEL OUTCOME This work is likely to be done on a sub-catchment

18 WP1. Yes WP6. Adaptation / response Storylines / scenarios MODEL No OUTCOME x3 max. Meets WFD, HD?

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20 Engaging Stakeholders To feed into Project design Workshops involving stakeholders Barriers to implementation workshop in Autumn st: Scotland (River Dee) 2nd: Greece (River Loures) High-level stakeholder workshop April 2011 possibly together with the next project meeting 2-3 regional representatives per demonstration catchment Dissemination Usual means Web site etc - Regional stakeholder workshops Best practice strategy documents Demonstration case studies Cross sectoral policy briefings