Rethinking Sustainability Indicators

Transcription

1 Rethinking Sustainability Indicators Evidence from the Globe to the Ground Heather Tallis

2 Why Sustainability Indicators? What are the biggest problems What works best to fix them Are we making any progress

3 A Special Challenge: People AND Nature Nature Problem: Deforestation Effective Solution: Protected area People Problem: Conservation refugees

4 A Special Challenge: People AND Nature Nature Problem: Climate change Effective Solution: Fossil fuels People Problem: Energy security

5 Can Our Indicators Catch Up?

6 What Are The Biggest Problems?

7 What are the Biggest Problems? FOR NATURE AND PEOPLE?

8 SDG 2,12 Food Security SDG 1,11 Disaster Risk Reduction Health SDG 3 SDG 2, 12, 14, 15 69% Climate Stability MARINE 4% TERRESTRIAL 33% FRESHWATER 5% 80% Water Security SDG 1,11, 13 SDG 6,12 SDG 1, 8, 10 GDP Energy Security SDG 7

9 SDG 2,12 Food Security SDG 1,11 Disaster Risk Reduction Hunger 795 Million Child underweight 1 Billion Health SDG Billion DALYs SDG 2, 12, 14, 15 69% Climate Stability SDG 1,11, 13 MARINE 4% TERRESTRIAL 33% FRESHWATER 5% 80% Sanitation 2.6 Billion Water Clean Water 600M Security SDG 6,12 GDP Energy Security SDG 1, 8, 10 SDG 7 896M 1.44 Billion 21%

10 CURRENT INDICATORS # people without access to clean water Health % population facing water insecurity # people without sanitation 69% TERRESTRIAL FRESHWATER 5% 80% Sanitation 2.6 Billion Water Clean Water 600M Security EBV s # species % habitat cover % fisheries over fished % rivers with impaired connectivity

11 DIG DEEPER: DRIVERS

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14 Hunger 795 Million Food Security Child underweight 1 Billion High blood pressur e Dietary risks Climate Stability Disaster Risk Reduction Fish oil & meal Overharvest GHG Emissions Aquaculture Fishing MARINE 4% 16.7% Bycatch Urban Habitat Conversion 5% Invasives Extraction 59% Food amount Pasture Cropland TERRESTRIAL 33% Food distributio n Food productio n Fishing Diet choice Irrigation Diet diversity FRESHWATER 5% 38% Hydro Conventional Biomass & other renewables Nuclear Pesticides Nutrients 55% 80% Food quality Habitat Conversion Overweight 1.4 Billion 69% Pollution 3.1% Water Withdrawals Air Pollution Sanitation 2.6 Billion Health Clean Water 600M 2.5 Billion DALYs Hygiene Water Security GDP PEOPLE BELOW POVERTY LINE 64% Energy production Transport Commercial Industrial Household Energy Security 1.44 Billion 21% Services

15 There ARE Many Big Joint Challenges BUT TODAY S INDICATORS DON T MAKE THAT EASY TO SEE Solving sanitation access would solve one of the largest SDGs, and solve major components of freshwater biodiversity decline and child malnutrition Reducing agricultural inputs (land, water, chems) is a connected major challenge for food security, terrestrial and FW biodiversity, child malnutrition and drinking water Stopping deforestation and transitioning households off biomass fuels would stop the largest single threat to biodiversity globally, and stop the primary drivers of air pollution and associated respiratory disease.

16 What Works Best?

17 WHAT WORKS BEST TO FIX THEM? Environmental Intervention Environmental Change Social or Economic Intervention Social or Economic Change

18 EXAMPLE: FOREST MANAGEMENT Ecosystem Services Health Mechanical thinning Fuel load (mass, volume) Fire behavior (fire intensity) Ecology

19 EXAMPLE: FOREST MANAGEMENT & HEALTH Ecosystem Services Health Mechanical thinning Fuel load (mass, volume) Fire behavior (fire intensity) Respiratory treatments Respiratory health impacts (hospital visits) Value of reduced illness Ecology Health

20 EXAMPLE: FOREST MANAGEMENT & HEALTH Health Mechanical thinning Fuel load (mass, volume) Fire behavior (fire intensity) Air quality (smoke, particulates) Exposure (population in airshed) Respiratory health impacts (hospital visits) Value of reduced illness caused by smoke Ecology Health

21 EXAMPLE: FOREST MANAGEMENT & HEALTH Health Mechanical thinning Fuel load (mass, volume) Fire behavior (fire intensity) Air quality (smoke, particulates) Exposure (population in airshed) Respiratory health impacts (hospital visits) Value of reduced illness caused by smoke Ecology Ecosystem Services Health

22 ALIGNING EVIDENCE Health Mechanical thinning Fuel load (mass, volume) Fire behavior (fire intensity) Air quality (smoke, particulates) Exposure (population in airshed) Respiratory health impacts (hospital visits) Value of reduced illness caused by smoke Ecology Ecosystem Services Health

23 CONSERVATION BY DESIGN

24 NORTH AMERICA URBAN NETWORK Problem: Urban heat island effect causing increased air conditioning needs and costs declines in terrestrial species of concern declines in migratory corridor connectivity Building regulations encourage permeable surfaces Impermeable surface area Temperature seasonality Air conditioning use Population trajectory of urban species of concern Air conditioning costs Tree cover in key migratory areas Migratory corridor connectivity

25 Drive Indicators Off Of Shared Logic Models

26 Are We Making Any Progress?

27 What Can We Track Annually & Globally? Fisheries Production Type Supply Service Environment Handoff Metric Biomass or abundance of fish Fish landings Caloric content of landings Benefit Human Market value of landings Reduced malnutrition from fish Tallis et al BioScience

28 What Can We Track Annually & Globally? Karp et al. 2015, Global Enviro Change

29 What Can We Track Annually & Globally? Tallis et al BioScience

30 Conclusions Drive indicator development and evidence around shared logic models (everyone face the same idea) Choose indicators that truly reflect the interaction the handoff not just the environmental and socio-economic endpoints

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