- Heterogeneity in the technological selec1on in CGE-

Transcription

1 - Heterogeneity in the technological selec1on in CGE- Na1onal Ins1tute for Environmental Studies 2014 Annual IAMC mee1ng th, Nov., Washington DC 1

2 Outline Detailed energy end- use technology informa1on is incorporated in a CGE model. AIM/Enduse device informa1on is given to AIM/CGE Logit selec1on is the core idea to select technology Main results Aggregated macro economy results of the new model are similar to the original model. The new model shows unique characteris1cs in the transport and household sectors. 2

3 Background Two types of models in IAMs Two types of models have been used for the assessment of climate change mi1ga1on policy. Top- Down model pros; En1re economic goods and produc1on factors are covered cons; technological details are not described BoTom- Up model pros; technological details are represented cons; macro economic feedback is outside of the model There are several trials Exchanging informa1on each other MESSAGE- MACRO, IMACRIM- R (WEM and CGE), CIMS Dealing with detailed technological representa1on in specific sectors SGM (electricity and steel), EPPA (transport)

4 Objec/ves Integra1ng botom- up to top- down CGE Develop fully coupled CGE model with detailed energy end- use representa1on Perfectly consistent solu1on (energy end- use and macro economy) More realis1c model for the CGE models. Heterogeneity of the energy technology selec1on This study aims to show How the energy end- use is represented in the newly developed model What are the characteris1cs of the model

5 AIM/CGE model Popula1on Food preference, yield GDP Energy goods flows Agricultural products flows and land use Energy service intensity AIM/CGE input Resource poten1al (Fossil and renewable) Energy and agricultural price GHG, and air pollutants output Climate policy Dynamic recursive General Equilibrium (1 year step) Base year; regions 43 industries (23 goods) Power sector is disaggregated and there is a mode to couple detailed energy end- use informa1on. Agricultural sectors are disaggregated Domes1c and interna1onal market Gases; CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, SOx, NOx, CO, BC, OC, VOC, NH 3 MAGICC6 is used for the Climate informa1on 5

6 The tradi1onal approach in produc1on func1on with CES output σ=0 Land Resource Value added σ=0.5 Capital Labor Energy and value added bundle σ=0.4 σ=0 Energy aggregate Fossil fuel σ=1.0 σ=0.5 Intermediate inputs electricity solid liquid gas goods Mul1- nested CES func1on Energy and primary factor inputs are nested usually with 0.4 or 0.5 elas1city of subs1tu1on. 6

7 The new approach in produc1on func1on output σ=0 Land Resource Value added Detailed Energy Device Selec1on Intermediate inputs σ=0.5 Energy service goods Capital Labor Energy consump1on Addi1onal capital cost Value added and energy parts are separately treated. Energy is determined by detailed informa1on 7

8 How to determine energy end- use within the new approach Energy service demand is Leon1ef Device selec1on is Logit Each device has each energy efficiency and energy consump1on is determined.

9 Method List of main end- use services and energy use Sector Transport Industry Services Residents Passenger gasoline car Boiler as intermediate input Warming (Heating) Warming (Heating) Passenger diesel car Heat as intermediate input Cooling Cooling Passenger bus Machine as intermediate input Hot water Hot water Passenger electricity rail Other electric technology as intermediate input Cooking Cooking Passenger domestic air Other non-electric technology as intermediate input Lighting Lighting Passenger industrial air Office tools Refrigerator Freight small truck Television Freight large truck Others Freight electricity rail Freight domestic ship Freight international ship Freight domestic air Pipeline Total Definition of service Energy use Electricity, Fuel-cell, Gasoline, Natural gas, Diesel, Coal, Jet fuel, Heavy fuel oil, Crude oil, Oil Coal, Oil, Natural gas, Biomass, Electricity, Heat Coal, Kerosene, LPG, Natural gas, Heat, Geothermal, Electricity, Biomass, Oil (Kerosene) AIM/Enduse is the basis of the informa1on 32 main services Coal, Kerosene, LPG, Natural gas, Heat, Geothermal, Electricity, Solar thermal, Fuelcell, Biomass, Oil (Kerosene)

10 Method List of main end- use devices Sector Transport Industry Services Residents Passenger car Boiler Boiler for space heating Stove for space heating Hybric passenger car Electrict boiler Stove for space heating Heat supply for space heating Plug-in hybrid car Heat pump Adsorption heat pump Geothermal supply for space heating Bus Heat boiler Heat supply for space heating Air conditioner for warming Hybrid bus Furnace Geothermal supply for space heating Air conditioner for cooling Passenger rail Biomass furnace Air conditioner for warming Water heater Aircraft for domestic flight (passenger) Electricc furnace Heat pump for cooling Electric water heater Aircraft for international flight Heat furnace Air conditioner for cooling Heat pump type water heater Small-size truck Motor Water heater Cooking equipment Small-size fuel-cell truck Heat motor Heat pump type water heater Electric cooking equipment Small-size hybrid truck Electrochemistry technology Cooking equipment IH cooking heater Large-size truck Other technology Electric cooking equipment Incandecent lamp Large-size fuel-cell truck IH cooking heater Compact fluorescent lamp Large-size hybrid truck Incandecent lamp Fluorescent lamp Freight rail Compact fluorescent lamp Refrigerator Ship for domestic transport Fluorescent lamp Television Ship for international transport Other electric equipment Other electric equipment Aircraft for domestic flight (freight) Pipeline transport Main Detail Definition of device Devices are divided into different levels and energy types: - Total detail devices: 365

11 Method Scenario framework and assump1ons Model type Mi/ga/on policy No policy [BaU] Mi1ga1on [MIT] Aggregated CES [AGG] AGG_BaU AGG_MIT Detailed BU informa1on [BU] BU_BaU BU_MIT Socioeconomic assump1ons; middle of the road (SSP2) Mi1ga1on is almost similar to RCP2.6 emissions trajectory Global 17regions and are the target.

12 Results Example of the end- use technology selec1on Passenger- km (bil. person km/year) BaU Electric vehicle Plugin hybrid Hybrid High Medium High efficiency Low efficiency This is just an example to show the endogenously determined within the CGE model in conjunc1on with BU informa1on Mi1ga1on Technology breakdown of global passenger car service Electric vehicle Plugin hybrid Hybrid High Medium High efficiency Low efficiency

13 Results Emissions and energy supply GHG Emissions (GtCO 2 eq/year) Historical BU_BaU BU_MIT AGG_BaU AGG_MIT Primary Energy [EJ/year] BU_BaU 2050 BU_MIT 2050 AGG_BaU 2050 AGG_MIT Bioenergy w/ CCS Bioenergy w/o CCS Geothermal Wind SPV Nuclear Hydro Natural gas w/ CCS Natural gas w/o CCS Oil w/o CCS Oil w/ CCS Coal w/o CCS Coal w/ CCS GHG emissions Primary energy supply AGG model is slightly higher emissions in BaU MIT scenarios are same Primary energy supply is not so quite different in BaU Those of mi1ga1on scenarios are different oil. The transport sector is one of the key sectors. AGG model is rela1vely hard to reduce the oil consump1ons

14 Results Policy cost; carbon price and GDP losses GHGEmissions price(us$/tco 2 -eq) BU_MIT AGG_MIT GDP losses from BaU(%) 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% BU_MIT AGG_MIT Carbon price GDP losses due to the climate mi1ga1on Carbon price is higher in AGG It would be due to the BaU emissions difference and mi1ga1on possibility but hard to iden1fy GDP losses are also high in AGG

15 Results CO2 emissions decomposi1on analysis CO 2 change ratio facttors (-) Residuals Carbon factor CO 2 change ratio facttors (-) Energy intensity Activity level Residuals Carbon factor Energy intensity Activity level AGG model BU model Ac1vity level change is a small factor in all sectors in both models AGG model has less emission reduc1on in transport and household The carbon factor reduc1on in transport is small in AGG The energy intensity improvement and carbon factor reduc1on in household are small in AGG Biofuel and electric vehicle availability The typical Household demand func1on is not well described for the energy assessment

16 Results Energy price elas1city and AEEI in the BU model Energy price elas1city Autonomous energy efficiency improvement Energy intensity change = Price effect + Autonomous efficiency improvement Regression analysis of the BU model energy end- use response Both are heterogeneous across regions and sectors whereas single parameter is typically used in previous method.

17 Conclusions Findings We developed a CGE model coupled with detailed energy end- use technology representa1on. Key results Macro level impressions of the results are not so quite different. The energy price elas1city and AEEI derived from the results are heterogeneous across regions and sectors. The way how transport and household sectors reduce CO2 emissions are different and the proposed model showed high energy efficiency improvement and carbon factor reduc1on in those sectors

18 Some thoughts Typical method may be not so problema1c in aggregated results (e.g. global results, total sector) but regional (country) or sector specific results may have problems AIM team has put much effort on encouraging the Asian countries to use our model and we cannot directly use global study s parameters The conclusion derived from this study might work within the rela1vely shorter- term assessment but longer- term may not be same. 18

19 Conclusions Limita1ons Parameters incorporated in the Logit func1on is arbitrarily assumed. It strongly requires behavioral studies or inves1ga1on. Energy service demand determina1on is also quite simplified (coefficient to output in industry, income elas1city in household). Energy end- use cost is actually part of the energy cost and infrastructure would substan1ally affect to the energy choices but this study only takes into account energy device cost.

20 Method Model structure (previous model) Popula1on Fossil fuel extrac1on cost Energy demand and supply GHG emissions TFP AIM/CGE [global] Energy service demand Renewable energy cost and availability Carbon and energy price Land use Electricity has detailed resolu1on combined with Logit formula1on Land use is dealt with detailed AEZs associated with physical volume informa1on. Energy end- use is represented by CES nested produc1on func1on or LES consump1on func1on.