Going One Step Beyond in North Denver

Transcription

1 Going One Step Beyond in North Denver A Neighborhood Scale Air Pollution Modeling Assessment Part I : Predicted Mobile Emissions in 2035 Michael Ogletree Denver Environmental Health

2 Purpose To compare current conditions to future emissions 2011 Base Case 2035 PCL Partial Cover Lowered Address community concerns around Hot-Spots Compare results from CDOT Additional compounds Provide assurance to the community that air quality in 2035 will be cleaner than it is today 2

3 Motor Vehicles Emission Simulator (MOVES) Developed by the EPA and used by state agencies for State Implementation Plan (SIP) and transportation conformity Most recently updated in November 2015 MOVES2014a This update did not include significant changes to the criteria pollutant emissions results of MOVES2014 (EPA) MOVES2014 (released in October 2014) was used for our analysis Different from CDOT & CDPHE MOVES2010b 3

4 Emissions Modeling Procedure Traffic Data Meteorological Data Fuel & Control Program Data Vehicle Fleet Data EPA MOVES2014 Emissions Factors by Pollutants Post-Processing PM Emissions NO x Emissions Benzene Emissions 4

5 Denver VMT (Billions) Thousands Denver VMT (Billions) Denver County Annual Emissions 150 Total PM 2.5 (Tons) 8 NOx (Tons) Benzene (Tons)

6 Project Area of Primary Focus 6

7 Model Scenarios 2011 Base 2035 PCL Winter Summer Winter Summer AM PM AM PM AM PM AM PM MD OP MD OP MD OP MD OP AM = 6:30-9:00 MD (Midday) = 9:00-15:00 PM = 15:00-19:00 OP (Off Peak) = 19:00-6:30 7

8 PM Modeling Components PM 2.5 & PM 10 Exhaust emissions Emitted directly from tailpipe Elemental carbon, iron, organic carbon, etc. Tailpipe emissions also lead to secondary particulate matter like nitrate and sulfate Brake and Tire wear Road Dust 9

9 Road Dust - Limitations From the South Coast (California) Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) I-710 Environmental Impact Statement Air Quality Technical Report (February 2012): Road dust lofted (entrained) into the air by passing vehicles result in increased inhalable particulate matter levels in some areas very near to the highway compared to the baseline. Brake and tire wear particulate matter is different and will grow with added vehicles and/or VMT The increases in dust may be an artifact of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) calculation method for entrained road dust and are inconsistent with the South Coast Air Quality Management District s 2007 Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) methodology and proposed 2012 AQMP method, which do not result in the growth of entrained dust seen in the U.S. EPA method. The EPA equation to calculate road dust assumes that roads have infinite amounts of dust (also known as silt reservoirs) to entrain. Basically for each added vehicle or vehicle mile traveled (VMT), more and more silt is deposited onto the highway and becomes available for resuspension. DEH contends there is a finite amount of dust that can be added to any roadway, and that is related mostly to meteorology (wind) and not the number of vehicles. If re-entrained road dust growth were excluded or assumed to not grow, all project alternatives reduce emissions from the baseline year. SCAQMD proposed a modified methodology for entrained PM emissions as part of their 2012 AQMP development. In SCAQMD s proposed methodology, baseline year PM10 and PM2.5 estimates will be lower, particularly PM2.5 estimates. Most importantly, future year entrained PM will remain constant (unless the roadway is lengthened or widened). I-70 will be widened and would be expected to have some increase in resuspended road dust. However, the calculations used for this modeling result in what we consider to be a very conservative (high amount). DEH expects future year dust and the resulting total PM concentrations to be lower than predicted here. 10

10 PM 2.5 PM 2.5 is particulate matter that is 2.5µm (microns or micrometers {millionths of a meter}) 1/30th the width of a human hair Sources of PM 2.5 Fossil fuel combustion Gas and diesel vehicles Wood burning Health effects Irritation of the eyes, nose, and throat Reduced lung function Asthma attacks Those most at risk are those with heart or lung diseases, children and older adults. 11

11 Grams/Day Grams/Day PM 2.5 Emissions 120,000 January PM 2.5 Exhaust Comparison 120,000 July PM 2.5 Exhaust Comparison 100,000 98, ,000 80,000 80,000 65,128 60,000 60,000 40,000 40,000 20,000-84% 20,000-77% - - BASE CASE (2011) PCL (2035) BASE CASE (2011) PCL (2035) 12

12 GRAMS/DAY (X1000) GRAMS/DAY (X1000) PM 2.5 Breakdown January PM 2.5 July PM 2.5 PM2.5 Exhaust PM2.5 B&T PM2.5 Road Dust PM2.5 Exhaust PM2.5 B&T PM2.5 Road Dust Base Case (2011) PCL (2035) - Base Case (2011) PCL (2035) 13

13 PM 2.5 January Breakdown 2011 vs 2035 January PM 2.5 Base Case (2011) January PM 2.5 PCL (2035) PM2.5 Exhaust 18.6% PM2.5 Road Dust 34.2% PM2.5 B&T 7.6% PM2.5 B&T 2.3% PM2.5 Exhaust 63.5% PM2.5 Road Dust 73.7% 14

14 PM 2.5 July Breakdown 2011 vs 2035 July PM 2.5 Base Case (2011) July PM 2.5 PCL (2035) PM2.5 Exhaust 17.6% PM2.5 Road Dust 43.7% PM2.5 Exhaust 53.4% PM2.5 Road Dust 74.7% PM2.5 B&T 7.7% PM2.5 B&T 2.9% 15

15 PM 10 PM 10 is particulate matter that is 10µm (microns or micrometers) About 1/5th of a human hair Sources of PM 10 Brake and tire wear Construction activities Re-entrained road dust Health effects Irritation of the eyes, nose, and throat Coughing, chest tightness and shortness of breath Reduced lung function Asthma attacks Those most at risk are those with heart or lung diseases, children and older adults. 16

16 Grams/Day Grams/Day PM 10 Modeled Comparison January PM 10 Exhaust Comparison 90,000 85,172 80,000 90,000 80,000 July PM 10 Exhaust Comparison 70,000 70,000 63,521 60,000-33% 60,000-11% 50,000 50,000 40,000 40,000 30,000 30,000 20,000 20,000 10,000 10, BASE CASE (2011) PCL (2035) BASE CASE (2011) PCL (2035) 17

17 GRAMS/DAY (X1000) GRAMS/DAY (X1000) PM 10 Breakdown January PM 10 July PM 10 PM10 Exhaust PM10 B&T PM10 Road Dust PM10 Exhaust PM10 B&T PM10 Road Dust Base Case (2011) PCL (2035) - Base Case (2011) PCL (2035) 18

18 PM 10 January Breakdown 2011 vs 2035 January PM 10 Base Case (2011) January PM 10 PCL (2035) PM10 Exhaust 26.2% PM10 Exhaust 15.6% PM10 B&T 14.0% PM10 Road Dust 65.5% PM10 B&T 8.4% PM10 Road Dust 70.4% 19

19 PM 10 July Breakdown 2011 vs 2035 July PM 10 Base Case (2011) July PM 10 PCL (2035) PM10 Exhaust 20.9% PM10 Exhaust 15.4% PM10 Road Dust 70.1% PM10 B&T 9.0% PM10 Road Dust 70.5% PM10 B&T 14.0% 20

20 NO x NO x consists of a group of highly reactive gases. Includes: nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) It contributes to secondary PM 2.5 as well as the creation of ground level ozone. Sources Vehicle emissions On-road and off-road vehicles Construction equipment Power plants Health effects Airway inflammation in healthy people Increased respiratory symptoms in people with asthma 21

21 Grams/Day Grams/Day NO x Modeled Comparison January NO x Exhaust Comparison 1,400,000 1,329,092 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 July NO x Exhaust Comparison 1,246,912 1,000,000 1,000, , , , , , , ,000-87% 200,000-88% - - BASE CASE (2011) PCL (2035) BASE CASE (2011) PCL (2035) 22

22 Benzene Benzene is an organic compound with high flammability and volatility used as a component in gasoline because of its high octane number. Sources Vehicle exhaust Refineries and gasoline service stations Wood burning Health effects Known to cause cancer Irritation of the eyes, skin, and respiratory system 23

23 Grams/Day Grams/Day Benzene Modeled Comparison 12,000 January Benzene Exhaust Comparison 12,000 July Benzene Exhaust Comparison 10,000 9,823 10,000 8,355 8,000 8,000 6,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 2,000-80% 2,000-80% - - BASE CASE (2011) PCL (2035) BASE CASE (2011) PCL (2035) *Evaporative emissions could not be included in the model at the project level 24

24 What s Next? Incorporate 2035 emissions data into AERMOD to generate predicted future year concentrations Compare to current health based standards The first step in a larger process Air monitoring for PM10, PM2.5, CO, NOx, certain VOCs like benzene, and soot Swansea Elem in 2016 One year of pre-construction (baseline), 3 years during construction, one year post construction EPA grant to conduct two 4-6 week intensive sampling periods to determine near highway gradients to verify modeling 25

25 Disclaimer: This work was performed by Denver Environmental Health (DEH) independently from the Colorado Dept of Transportation (CDOT). CDOT did answer a few technical questions along the way regarding some of the assumptions were made. Similar modeling tools were used by both agencies (MOVES, AERMOD). This project builds upon work that DEH completed in 2005 and was funded by Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and CDOT in FHWA/CDOT did not provide funding for this phase of work. DEH did this work in response to citizen and other interested stakeholders concerns regarding near highway gradients and hot-spots. CDOT did review this presentation but otherwise has had not formally reviewed the technical work products. The materials produced are wholly owned by the City and County of Denver Dept. of Environmental Health. For more information Contact Michael Ogletree, Gregg Thomas, or Lisa Clay with the Denver Department of Environmental Health 26