SECTION. Macro-economics. OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2017

Transcription

1 SECTION 2 Macro-economics OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 217

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3 Oil use per capita in OPEC Member Countries Macro-economics Feature Box: Section 2 During the period 198 to 216, OPEC Member Countries populations increased by about 275 million and, in relative terms, by almost 25 per cent, marking an average annual increase of around b 1 8 million per year. 1 The largest percentage gains have taken place in Middle Eastern OPEC Member Countries with relatively small populations, such as and the. OPEC Members oil demand gained almost 2.4 billion barrels during the same period, marking an average of b 2 68m b/yr. 2 Oil demand in OPEC Members is determined to a large extent by the transportation and industrial sectors, particularly the petroleum products categories of gasoline and distillates, as well as kerosenes. The higher rate in oil consumed, compared to the population, implies a sharp increase in oil use per capita from 4.9 b/yr in 198 to 7. b in 216 with the largest increases in relative terms originating in Middle Eastern OPEC Members. Healthy growth in the transportation sector of OPEC Members between 23 and 213, in addition to a developing industrial sector, have supported oil demand per capita gains considerably. OPEC Members population and oil demand OPEC Members oil demand per capita (million) (m b) 6 4, 5 3,5 4, 4 b 2,5 1 = 8 3 2, 2 1,5 b 2 = 68 1, (b/yr) Oil demand (RHS) Population Oil demand per capita in OPEC Members increased sharply during the early 198s, as well as from 23 to 213. It remained relatively stagnant between the mid-198s and 23, and further declined from 214 onwards, as shown in the figure above (right-hand side). The main factors behind declining oil demand per capita as of 214 were efficiencies in the transportation sector, increasing petroleum products retail prices in some OPEC Member Countries and fuel substitution with other primary commodities, notably natural gas in the industrial sector. As can be seen from the figure on the left-hand side, while population growth in OPEC Member Countries follows a linear trend during the time period , oil demand has switched towards a non-linear structure, especially after strong gains during the period Oil demand per capita in 216 varies substantially among OPEC Members, ranging from a minimum of 2 to a maximum of 37 b/yr. Notes: 1. Slope coefficient of simple linear regression model with population as a dependent variable and the year as an independent variable. 2. Slope coefficient of simple linear regression model with oil demand as a dependent variable and the year as an independent variable. OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin

4 Table 2.1 OPEC Members population (million inhabitants) change 16/ OPEC Graph 2.1 OPEC Members population (million inhabitants) Graph 2.2 Population as a share of total OPEC, 216 (%) OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 217

5 Table 2.2 OPEC Members GDP at current market prices (m $) ,5 29, ,12 165, ,14 115, , ,777 12,962 95,821 87,925 94,776 1,917 99,68 96,69 17,181 17,596 18,29 14,37 14, ,29 511, , ,436 49, ,32 234, , , , ,66 174, , ,78 11,572 89,242 62,872 33,819 29,763 33, , , , ,136 4, , ,183 25,66 164,19 152,59 735, , ,35 651, , , ,598 41,958 37, , , ,17 215,296 26,89 287,274 OPEC 3,586,635 3,56,924 3,42,836 3,27,811 2,939,39 4, Graph 2.3 OPEC Members GDP at current market prices (bn $) 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Graph 2.4 GDP at current market prices as a share of total OPEC, 216 (%) OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin

6 Table 2.3 OPEC Members real GDP growth rates PPP based weights (%) OPEC Notes: Aggregates were compiled on the basis of 211 GDP weights using 211 purchasing power parities (PPP). Graph 2.5 Real GDP growth rates PPP based weights for total OPEC (%) Graph 2.6 Real GDP growth rates for OPEC Members (%) OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 217

7 Table 2.4 OPEC Members values of exports (m $) Notes: All figures fob ,17 69,649 65,227 34,566 29,54 71,93 68,247 59,17 33,181 25,935 23,765 24,848 25,732 18,366 16,744 1,331 9,715 9,346 6,473 5, ,35 14,562 12,796 76,793 97,386 94,392 89,742 84,56 49,43 43,89 114, ,93 1,658 54,89 46,261 61,26 46,18 23,726 13,943 11,986 96,95 97,818 82,596 45,888 34,74 142, , ,845 92,38 72, ,41 375, ,433 23, , , ,28 343,85 3, ,653 97,877 88,753 74,714 37,236 26,473 OPEC 1,668,929 1,64,459 1,453, ,7 888,99 1,8 Graph 2.7 OPEC Members values of exports (bn $) 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Graph 2.8 Values of exports as a share of total OPEC, 216 (%) OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin

8 Table 2.5 OPEC Members values of petroleum exports (m $) ,271 44,462 4,628 21,742 18,638 69,954 66,652 57,25 31,929 25,935 13,792 14,17 13,276 6,66 5,442 8,922 8,44 7,72 4,913 4,198 11,468 61,923 53,652 27,38 41,123 94,9 89,359 84,33 49,249 43,753 18,534 17,543 94,324 48,444 41,461 6,188 44,445 2,357 1,973 9,313 95,62 9,546 78,53 41,818 27,788 65,65 62,519 56,912 28,513 22, ,48 321, , ,91 134,373 86,16 85,64 88,855 53,836 45,559 93,569 85,63 71,731 35,136 25,142 OPEC 1,182,968 1,82, , ,43 445,684 Notes: Where applicable, petroleum product exports are included. Data for some countries may include condensates, as well as other NGLs; some countries import substantial amounts of crude and products, resulting in lower net revenue from petroleum operations. 1,4 Graph 2.9 OPEC Members values of petroleum exports (bn $) 1,2 1, Graph 2.1 Values of petroleum exports as a share of total OPEC, 216 (%) OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 217

9 Table 2.6 OPEC Members values of imports (m $) ,6 63,758 68,36 52,649 49,437 23,74 26,331 28,58 2,693 12,515 24,25 25,889 26,445 2,458 15,618 3,629 3,99 4,46 3,61 2, ,74 11,242 8,362 65,822 73,3 59,6 59,349 53,177 39,45 38,713 27,268 29,293 31,35 3,952 3,83 25,59 34,5 2,43 11,236 11,12 57,396 55,31 61,594 52,335 35,24 54,544 58,792 63,829 59,19 63, , , , , , ,528 27, ,42 263,435 27,985 65,951 57,183 47,58 36,496 17,977 OPEC 934, , , , ,566 Notes: All figures cif. 1,2 Graph 2.11 OPEC Members values of imports (bn $) 1, Graph 2.12 Values of imports as a share of total OPEC, 216 (%) OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin

10 Table 2.7 Current account balances in OPEC Members (m $) , ,434 27,476 26,314 13,841 8,145 3,748 1,273 4, ,21 1,19 3,4 1,241 1, ,279 23,416 26,523 15,861 9,19 23,566 29,542 22,591 24,428 3,672 3,134 79,137 7,181 54,41 5, ,836 8,895 11,662 18,373 13,491 17,516 19, ,439 2,722 62, 6,461 49,41 13,751 2, , ,442 73,758 53,478 24,914 79,564 74,118 54,462 17,265 11,546 2,586 4,64 3,598 2,36 6,684 OPEC 511, , ,766 98,71 43,74 6 Graph 2.13 Current account balances in total OPEC (bn $) Graph , Current 216) account balances in OPEC Members (bn $) OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 217