Book Summary (abbreviated) Prepared for la Commission sur les enjeux énergétiques du Québec

Transcription

1 Sustainable Energy - without the hot air (SEWTHA) Author: David JC MacKay Book Summary (abbreviated) Prepared for la Commission sur les enjeux énergétiques du Québec Oct 11, 2013 Prepared by Steven Lightfoot, Eng. Consulting engineer, energy policy advisor 1

2 About the author/book David JC MacKay is a professor of physics at the University of Cambridge (UK) Basis of the 350 page book is an order of magnitude analysis of energy uses and potential renewable sources for a quantitative comparison It is a formally published book, but a free PDF version is available (14 meg) The content of the book (minus photos/cartoons) is free for use for educational purposes 2

3 Objective The author considers whether the UK can live sustainably, without fossil fuels His analysis is based on the current lifestyle of a moderately affluent person (i.e. someone who takes airplane flights for vacations) 3

4 General Approach Goal To produce an energy balance sheet Analysis uses the energy unit kwh/p/d Back of the envelope type calculations or maybe 4

5 Consumption and production of energy 5

6 Preliminary results Can we live on renewables? Consumption: 195 kwh/p/d Production: 180 kwh/p/d Average consumption: 125 kwh/p/d (UK) 250 kwh/p/d (USA) Source: UNDP 6

7 The renewable production situation after public consultation 7

8 Preliminary Conclusions To make a difference, renewable facilities have to be country-sized. What s required are BIG changes in demand and in supply. Reducing demand: Reduce populations Change lifestyles Keep lifestyle, reduce energy intensity Increasing supply Clean coal Nuclear fission Buy renewable energy from other countries most countries will not have renewable energy to spare 8

9 General Approach more electrical power 9

10 Five energy plans for Britain Producing lots of electricity D (Domestic Diversity) N (NIMBY) L (Liberal Democrats) G (Green) E (Economics) M (Middle) McKay in fact challenges the practical nature of all these plans! 10

11 Plan M Typical impact on landscape 11

12 Principal Conclusion of SEWTHA For a successful technology reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled - Richard Feynman Matters concerning energy policy must be QUANTIFIED for rational decision making 12

13 Energy/power density: historically always increasing Lifestyles Uranium Population density Petroleum Natural Gas Hydrogen Energy/power density (Mass/area basis) [not to scale] Human/ Animal effort Coal Wood/ biomass Abolition of slavery in US Renewables Wind, solar, biomass (hydro excluded) Wind/solar PV nondispatchable in powergen Before the industrial revolution Time Today This slide copyright 2012 Steven D. Lightfoot, Eng. 13

14 Correlation/causation between energy use and material standard of living 14

15 Energy requirements of different forms of transport Energy consumption (kwh per 100 person-km) 15

16 Unintended Consequences of poor energy planning 16

17 Gentilly 2 Closing it is a strategic mistake & driven by ideological/political agenda Keeping it operational allows the continued development of expertise in nuclear operation and safety in Quebec Some form of nuclear power IS the future, and France has lead the way. Leading environmentalists support nuclear including: James Hansen, Stewart Brand, George Monbiot 17

18 Contact Info: Steven D. Lightfoot, Eng., consulting engineer and energy policy advisor at The Lightfoot Institute & Nobody s Fuel Montreal, Canada lightfoot@ca.inter.net