Plans for the 2010 WMO/UNEP Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion

Transcription

1 Plans for the 2010 WMO/UNEP Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion CCMVal Meeting June WMO/UNEP Assessment Co-chairs: Ayité-Lô Ajavon (Togo) Paul Newman (USA) John Pyle (UK) A. R. Ravishankara (USA) Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion:2010 Color? 2006 Assessment 2010 Assessment

2 A Little Context: The Assessment Process Important factors: 1. The expertise of the authors. 2. Critical reviews (multiple times) by experts What the assessments are: State of science: What we know & what we don t, framed in policy-useful terms. Scientific documents, prepared & reviewed by the expert communities. Assessed viewpoints, not reviews. One-stop shopping : Science of the ozone layer (Scientific Assessment Panel) Impacts of ozone change (Environmental Effects Panel). Technology/economics of options (Technology and Economic Assessment Panel) Well-identified customers : Governments, via the Montreal Protocol Industry; Public; Science community

3 The Assessment Process, continued What the assessments are not: They don t make policy recommendations. They are not research-planning documents, nor do they push research projects or needs. (They do identify gaps in information that may limit informed decision-making.) No one assessment report is the final word. (Both policy and research are interactive endeavors.)

4 2010 Contents: The Birds-Eye View Key ongoing issues Levels of ODS and trends Levels of ozone and its trends Our understanding of the atmospheric science What is new in science The impact of climate change on ozone layer recovery The impact of ozone layer changes on climate and its changes Update of Twenty Questions document Key requests from the Parties to the Protocol

5 The Parties Request (Decision XIX/20) Assess the state of the ozone layer and its future evolution Evaluate recent Antarctic ozone hole and Arctic ozone depletion behavior Evaluate trends of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere Assess the impacts of climate change on ozone layer Analyze atmospheric concentrations of bromine and implications for the ozone-layer Describe surface ultraviolet radiation observations and future expectations Assess interaction between tropospheric and stratospheric ozone Assess approaches to evaluating very short-lived substances

6 Chapters and Coordinating Lead Authors Chapter 1: Chapter 2: Chapter 3: Chapter 4: Chapter 5: Ozone-Depleting Substances (ODSs) and Related Chemicals Steve Montzka (NOAA, USA) Stefan Reimann (EMPA, Switzerland) Stratospheric Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation Anne Douglass (NASA, USA) Vitali Fioletov (Environment Canada, Canada) The Future of the Ozone Layer and Its Impact on Surface UV: The Influence of ODSs, Climate, and Other Factors Slimane Bekki (CNRS, France) Greg Bodeker (NIWA, New Zealand) Impact of Stratospheric Changes on Climate Piers Forster (University of Leeds, UK) Dave Thompson (Colorado State University, USA) Information and Options for Policymakers John Daniel (NOAA, USA) Guus Velders (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands) Twenty Questions and Answers About the Ozone Layer: 2010 Update David W. Fahey (NOAA, USA) Michaela Hegglin (University of Toronto, Canada)

7 Overall Timetable & Some Notable Features Steps: Dates and Tasks Draft outline completed. Comments solicited from scientific community. Coordinating Lead Authors & author teams established. Chapter outlines drafted June 2009: Lead Authors meeting (London) Mid-October: 1st drafts due; circulated for internal review. November 2009: Internal review meeting: Coordinating Lead Authors, Cochairs, and a few others. (Washington, DC) February 2010: 2 nd drafts complete and mail peer review starts. April: mail reviews due; third draft preparation begins Mid-May: Third draft due; distributed to Les Diablerets Panel reviewers. June/July 2010: Panel Review: (Les Diablerets, Switzerland) Coodinating Lead Authors & a few Lead Authors. ~30-40 reviewers. Final decisions on chapters. Completed Executive Summary. Early August: Chapters completed, editing begins. 30 December: preprint volume to UNEP for government distribution. ~ March 2011: final printed copies available