Centro Internacional para la Investigación del Fenómeno de El Niño

Transcription

1 Regional Workshop on Integration of Seasonal Forecasts and Hydrological information for water related sectors in the Western Coast of South America (WCSA) Rationale Guayaquil, Ecuador January 2010 The Third World Climate Conference, organized by WMO, produced as one of its main outcomes key recommendations for the implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). One of the recommendations calls for action to tailor suitable products for strategic development sectors and foster synergies among different communities to achieve this goal. An interdisciplinary approach is now a strong requirement and is unavoidable in the endeavor to reach end users and provide them with weather, climate and water information with which to make better decisions. The Western Coast of South America Region has developed, through the NMHSs from Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia and Chile under the coordination of CIIFEN, a strong Institutional operational network which is providing regular, tailored climate services for the agricultural and risk management sectors of the region. They are also closely linked with the Regional Seasonal Forecast system, implemented and consolidated through the WCSA Climate Outlook Forum, supported by WMO and coordinated by CIIFEN. During the 1990 s, seasonal prediction matured to achieve some notable success, in particular reaching a high level of quality in areas influenced by the status of the tropical Pacific, based on predictions of SST and ENSO variability. Also, a move from statistically based forecasting methods to dynamic modeling approaches will see significant improvements in forecast capabilities. Nevertheless, model error and forecast initialization continue to limit forecast quality, and the predictability limit has yet to be reached. In spite of these problems, seasonal forecast has been applied with relative success on scales of three months in the prediction of maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation. These predictions are being used to compile maps of agro climatic risk. Skillful seasonal hydrologic predictions will greatly assist water resource management, preparation for floods, drought and its impacts, energy planning, and many other related sectors. Some of our previous experiences in the WCSA region have enabled us to learn and understand the asymmetries between different institutions regarding the available data, their quality, current observational systems, institutional constraints, lack of human resources, etc. On the other hand, the demands from Governments on the NMHSs have increased with time as a consequence of social and economical pressures such as extreme poverty, food security, vulnerability, environmental degradation in the main river basins, water conflicts, competiveness in the development sectors, etc. The institutional platform existing in the WCSA region offers a very special opportunity to start a process toward the integration of this operational system at the regional and national levels with other strategic components such as hydrological forecasting and integrated water resources management. WCSA countries economies are strongly dependant of sectors such as agriculture, energy and water resources. In addition, the occurrence of severe extreme events have direct consequences on water access, distribution and use, producing social conflicts and economic losses which lead to increase poverty, sanitation problems, malnutrition and food insecurity. Various service providers in the water sector will benefit if, on the basis of the Climate Outlooks being regularly generated in the region, NHSs could develop Hydrological Outlooks in their respective jurisdictions and cooperate with each other in developing the hydrological outlooks in transboundary rivers.

2 This kind of effort demands mutual knowledge sharing amongst the involved disciplinary communities. This workshop is aimed to initiate the process in this region and identify the key partners, the needs to be addressed, the opportunities and actions to be undertaken in order to accomplish the implementation of this new integrated climate and water service as a regional contribution to the GFCS. Methodology The workshop will be divided in 4 sessions. Each session will include key note presentations, regional and national presentations and working group discussions. The proposed sessions will be the following: I. Needs for hydrological outlooks for users from the irrigation, energy and supply and sanitation sectors at the National and Regional level. II. Current capabilities for implementing climate and hydrological services at the Global, Regional and National levels. III. Opportunities to implement hydrological outlooks for irrigation, energy supply and sanitation sectors. IV. Building a Regional Action Plan to provide hydrological outlooks on an operational basis in WCSA. Objectives: The proposed workshop is oriented toward the discussion of the following issues: 1) To assess the current national capacities, ongoing activities, strengths, weaknesses and major needs of the water sector related to hydrological data, products and services, especially hydrological prediction. 2) To learn about, regional or extra-regional experiences with hydrological products and services applied to the irrigation, energy and sanitation sectors. 3) To foster the interaction between the hydrologic and climatic communities in the region by identifying the points of common interest and challenges. 4) To propose a regional action plan aimed at the implementation of hydrological outlooks based on climate outlooks in the region, as a contribution from the region to the Global Framework of Climate Services.

3 AGENDA Date : 25 th - 28 th January 2010 Venue: Auditorio: Fundación El Universo Guayaquil, Ecuador Monday 25 th January 08h30-09h00 Registration 09h00-10h00 Opening Ceremony - WMO (Dr. Caponi) - CIIFEN (Dr. Mascarenhas) - National Risk Management Secretary (Dr. Pilar Cornejo) - Inauguration- National Water Secretary (Dr. Jurado) - Group Photo 10h00-10h30 Coffee Break Session I : Global, regional and national capabilities on implementing hydrological services. Chairman: Dr. A. Mascarenhas 10h30-11h00 The WMO Perspective of the hydrological services (Dr. Claudio Caponi- WMO) 11h00-11h30 The experience of CIIFEN implementing climate Services in WCSA (Dr. Affonso Mascarenhas-CIIFEN ) 11h30 12h00 The Implementation of the Climate Outlook Forum in WCSA (Mr. Rodney Martínez - CIIFEN) 12h00-12h30 Regional capabilities to provide services to water related sectors (Dr. Pilar Cornejo- NSRM-CADS) 12h30-13h00 Regional Activities of HYBAM Project Dr. Luc Bourrel (IRD) 13h00-14h00 Lunch Break 14h00-14h20 National capabilities on hydrological services in Bolivia. 14h20-14h40 National capabilities on hydrological services in Chile 14h40-15h00 National capabilities on hydrological services in Colombia

4 15h00-15h20 National capabilities on hydrological services in Ecuador 15h20-15h40 National capabilities on hydrological services in Peru 15h40-16h00 National capabilities on hydrological services in Venezuela 16h00-16h30 Coffee Break 16h30-17h30 Working Groups: Main capabilities of the hydrological services providers (3 groups) 17h30-18h00 Presentations of working groups (10 each-group) Tuesday 26 th January Session II : Regional and National needs for hydrological outlooks for users from the irrigation, energy and supply and sanitation sectors. Chairman: Rodney Martínez (CIIFEN) 08h30-09h00 Summary of previous day discussion 09h00-09h30 Regional needs of hydrological information in irrigation, energy and sanitation sectors. (Dr. María Concepción Donoso UNESCO-PHI) 09h30-10h00 Required hydrological services from the Energy Sector (Dr. Marcio Cataldi Operadora Nacional do Sistema Electrico Rio de Janeiro Brazil) 10h00-10h30 Coffee Break 10h30-11h00 The experience of New Zealand in the implementation of Hydrological Outlooks (Dr. Roddy Henderson NIWA) 11h00-11h30 Experience on Hydrological Outlooks Suggested expert from UK (TBD) 11h30-12h00 Coffee Break 12h00-12h30 Experience on IRI on Hydrological Outlooks (Dr. Walter Baethgen- IRI) 12h30 13h00 The importance of Hydrological Outlooks and other services on Disaster management ( Dra. Secin Tocar NOAA/OFDA ) 13h00-14h00 Lunch Break

5 14h00-14h30 Required hydrological services from the Agriculture-Irrigation sector (Invited person from MAGAP or SENAGUA-Ecuador) 14h30 15h00 Required hydrological services from the Water supply and sanitation sector (Ing. Miguel Ángel Ontiveros- PROAPAC-GTZ - Bolivia). 15h00 15h30 Linking the sectoral needs with the hydrological capabilities in the region (Dr. Marcos Airton de Souza-Brazil) 15h30-16h00 Needs of information for water resources managers in Chile 16h00-16h30 Coffee Break 16h30-17h00 Needs of information for water resources managers in Venezuela 17h00-17h30 Needs of information for water resources managers in Colombia 17h30-18h00 Needs of information for water resources managers in Peru Wednesday 27 th January 08h30-09h00 Needs of information for water resources managers in Ecuador 09h00-09h30 Needs of information for water resources managers in Bolivia 09h30-10h00 Working Groups: Main required energy and sanitation) hydrological services for water managers (3 groups: irrigation, 10h00-10h30 Coffee break 10h30 11h30 Working Groups continue 11h30-13h00 Presentations of working groups (30 each-group) 13h00-14h00 Lunch break Session III: Potential opportunities to implement hydrological outlooks for irrigation, energy and sanitation sectors. Chairman: Mr. Juan José Nieto 14h00-16h00 Working groups on main opportunities for the region, considering their capabilities, existent needs and partners (private and public ) in the region. (3 groups each per sector) 16h00-16h30 Coffee break 16h30-17h30 Working groups continue

6 Thursday 28 th January 08h30-09h00 Presentation of WG on potential opportunities to implement hydrological outlooks for the irrigation sector. Coordinator WG 1 09h00-09h30 energy sector. Presentation of WG on potential opportunities to implement hydrological outlooks for the Coordinator WG 2 09h30-10h00 Presentation of WG on potential opportunities to implement hydrological outlooks for the water supply and sanitation sector. Coordinator WG 3 10h00-10h30 Coffee Break Session IV: Building a Regional Action Plan to provide hydrological outlooks on an operational basis in WCSA. Chairman: Rodney Martinez 10h30-12h00 Plenary discussion 12h00-12h30 Summary of sectoral information requirements Dr. Affonso Mascarenhas (CIIFEN) 12h30-13h00 Summary of needs, capabilities and possible action lines for the region Rodney Martinez (CIIFEN) 13h00-14h00 Lunch Break 14h00-15h00 Plenary discussion on the main Components of a Regional Action Plan 15h00-15h30 Concluding remarks 15h30-16h00 Closing of the workshop