North Texas 2050 For a Future That s Better Than Business As Usual Fort Worth City Council September 25, 2012

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1 North Texas 2050 For a Future That s Better Than Business As Usual Fort Worth City Council September 25, 2012 Mike Eastland Vision North Texas Management Committee North Central Texas Council of Governments Executive Director

2 Three Questions How did we get here? Challenges under business as usual? How can we do better?

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7 North Texas Population M people in 2000; 6.5M in 2010 Fort Worth Residents (Thousands) Rest of the Region Dallas Year

8 Regional growth is expected to continue Population 5.3 million people in million people in million people in 2050 Employment 3.2 million jobs in million jobs in million jobs in 2050 Millions Population Jobs

9 Challenges under business as usual?

10 2035 Congestion Costs $10.1B

11 Projected Growth & Air Quality Urbanized area of the region violates the 8-hour federal health standard for ground level ozone Transportation funding is dependent on air quality conformity Mobile Sources are the leading cause of Nitrogen Oxide emissions TCEQ is in the process of developing an 8-hour ozone attainment demonstration State Implementation Plan On-Road Vehicles 50% Non-Road Engines 36% Point 10% Area 4% Source: Revisions To The State Implementation Plan for the Control of Ozone Air Pollution - Attainment Demonstration for the Dallas/Fort Worth Ozone Nonattainment Area, TNRCC, February 24, 1999, Figure 2.7-4

12 Projected Growth & Water Supply By 2050, DFW urban counties 1 will require 2.1 billion gallons per day Available supplies would provide 1.25 billion gallons per day, representing a significant shortfall Satisfying demand will require: Development of a major lake in East Texas and/or purchase of developed water from Oklahoma or other Texas sources Increased reuse of treated wastewater Local conservation programs Protection of existing sources 1 Collin, Dallas, Denton, Tarrant Counties from 2011 Region C Water Plan AVAILABLE 1.25 billion gallons per day WATER NEEDS IN billion gallons per day

13 Projected Growth & the Environment Each of our major rivers have sections that do not meet the state s designated water quality standards Storm water runoff from increases in impervious area may cause flooding, stream bank erosion, and pollution of streams and lakes More than 100 local governments are required by state-issued permits to address storm water pollution from development & redevelopment Loss of open space & Insufficient natural areas with functioning ecological systems in developed areas State of Texas (d) Listed Stream Segments

14 Projected Growth & Electricity

15 Vision North Texas VNT is a private-public-academic partnership with three objectives: Increase awareness about expected growth, Serve as a forum for discussion among all stakeholders about critical issues, and Build support for initiatives that might create a successful and sustainable future for North Texas.

16 Awareness & Dialogue Stakeholder Awareness

17 North Texas 2050 Regional Gamebook Download or purchase at

18 A Vision for North Texas North Texas is recognized worldwide as a region that sustains its economic success and vitality because it contains many distinctive and highly desirable communities, supports innovative people and businesses and nurtures its varied natural assets. It contains diverse neighborhoods, mixed use centers and communities that appeal to people of all income levels and at all stages of their lives. It is a preferred location for the employees and businesses that comprise the broad-based and innovative local economy. It offers residents and businesses access to resources and opportunities that lead to their long-term success. It protects, manages and enhances critical natural areas and uses energy and natural resources responsibly. It supports resilient and effective responses to change through collaboration and cooperation within the region.

19 Guiding Principles 1.Development Diversity 2.Efficient Growth 3.Pedestrian Design 4. Housing Choice 5. Activity Centers 6. Environmental Stewardship 7. Quality Places 8. Efficient Mobility Options 9. Resource Efficiency 10. Educational Opportunity 11. Healthy Communities 12. Implementation

20 Policy Areas & Centers Natural Areas Rural Areas Separate Community Areas Outer Tier Areas Inner Tier Areas Employment Centers Mixed Use Centers

21 Preferred Future Accommodates anticipated growth Offers opportunities to all parts of North Texas Increases choice for future North Texans

22 Future North Texans From 2000 to 2030 in 16 county region: School aged children are a slightly smaller share of the population Smaller share of people in labor force (ages 20-64) 61% in 2006; 57% in 2030 More seniors (ages 65 through 84) 7% in 2006; 13% in 2030 More diverse Higher %s of Hispanic & Asian residents Larger share of transit-oriented households Estimate of 46,429 in 2007; projected 270,676 in 2030

23 Conclusions The neighborhoods, jobs, services & amenities that North Texans want and need in 2030 (or 2050) will not be the same as in 2000 (or earlier). Market demand will not be met by business as usual.