CEC: Your Partner in Regulation

Transcription

1 CEC: Your Partner in Regulation Panama Bartholomy Advisor to the Chairman California Energy Commission Independent Energy Producers Association Annual Meeting Fallen Leaf, CA September 24, 2007

2 Today Joint Proceeding CEC Climate Strategies IEPR Scenarios Work CEQA

3 Climate Action Team Contributions to 2020 Emission Reduction Goals DWR 1% BTH 13% CPUC 13% SCSA 1% ARB 37% CEC 18% CDFA 1% CalFire 10% IWMB 6%

4 Energy Commission Emission Reductions Million Metric Tons Co2 Program Building Energy Efficiency Standards in Place Appliance Energy Efficiency Standards in Place Fuel-efficient Tires & Inflation Programs Building Energy Efficiency Standards in Progress Appliance Energy Efficiency Standards in Progress Cement manufacturing Municipal Utility Programs Efficiency, RPS, Carbon Policy, CHP Alternative Fuels: Non-Petroleum Fuels [AB 1007].8.5 <1 TBD TBD <1 4+ TBD <1 TBD TBD <1 18+ TBD

5 Net Cost Estimates For Climate Strategies 35.0 Pavley 30.0 Emissions Reduced (MMTCO2e) Appliance Efficiency Standards Fuel-Efficient Replacement Tires Building Efficiency Standards Muni EE Programs Muni RPS Muni Carbon Policy $600 -$400 -$200 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 Net Cost ($/ton) Source: CAT Updated Macroeconomic Analysis of Climate Strategies, September 7, 2007

6 Scenario Project We defined 13 alternative scenarios for meeting loads for 2007 Integrated Energy Policy Report. The scenarios varied by Levels of energy efficiency Levels of renewable resources Activities within the other western states Compared scenarios by 1990 target, cost and GHG impact

7 Composition of California Resource Mix in Year , , ,000 Annual Production (GWh) 250, , , ,000 50,000 0 Case 1 Case 1b Case 2 Case 3a Case 3b Case 4a Case 4b Case 5a Case 5b Cases Hydro Pumped Storage Output Nuclear Coal CA Remote Generation Natural Gas Fuel Oil Other Wind Geothermal Energy Efficiency PV Solar CA Net Import (GWh) Source: Energy Commission Scenario Project

8 California Carbon Dioxide Responsibility (Includes Instate Generation, Remote Generation, and Net Imports) Through Time By Case 140 Annual California Responsibility Carbon (million short tons) Historic emission inventory based on Energy Commission assessments. Actual Projected Preliminary AB 32 Carbon Goal = 99.1 million short tons Instate Generation plus imports (including remote generation) Source: Energy Commission Case 1 Case 1B Case 2 Case 3A Case3B Case 3D Case 3E Case 4A Case 4B Case 5A Case 5B Case 5D Case 5E Source: Global Energy Decisions, Inc., and California Energy Commission

9 Total WECC Coal Consumption (GBTu) 3,600,000 3,500,000 3,400,000 Annual UEG (Gbtu) 3,300,000 3,200,000 3,100,000 3,000,000 2,900,000 2,800,000 2,700,000 2,600, Year Case 1 Case 1B Case 2 Case 3A Case 3B Case 4A Case 4B Case 5A Case 5B Source: Global Energy

10 Case 1 Annual Generation (GWh) 2020 Carbon Adder 300,000 RofW Renewables RofW Natural Gas RofW Coal CA Natural Gas 250,000 Case Annual Generation (GWh) 200, , ,000 50,000 0 Base Case 10$ 20$ 40$ 60$ Value of Carbon Adder ($/ton of CO2) Source: Global Energy Decisions

11 Case 5B Annual Generation (GWh) 2020 Carbon Adder 250,000 RofW Energy Efficiency RofW Coal CA Natural Gas RofW Renewables RofW Natural Gas Case 5B 2020 Annual Generation (GWh) 200, , ,000 50,000 0 Base Case 10$ 20$ 40$ 60$ Source: Global Energy Decisions, Inc. Value of Carbon Adder ($/ton of CO2)

12 CAT Report Emissions Reduction Sector 2004 Sector Emissions* MMTCO2 % of CA s 2004 Emissions 2020 Reductions MMTCO2 % of Reductions Electric Utility % % Transportation % % * CEC 2006 Inventory

13 VMT and Population in CA ,000,000 Annual VMT (Billions) ,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 Population Annual VMT (billions) Population Year 0

14

15 California s State Flower

16 California s Transportation Challenge 2005 = 100% 170% 160% 150% 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Vehicle Miles Traveled CO2 Emissions Fuel: Low Carbon Std Vehicle Stds (AB1493) 1990 Transp CO2 Emissions CO levels Based on CEC, CARB and CALTRANS data

17 California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) CEQA requires state and local agencies to identify and reduce significant, negative environmental impacts of land use decisions. No GHG Threshold Project vs. Jurisdiction vs. Region vs.?

18 San Bernardino Settlement An inventory of all known, or reasonably discoverable, sources of greenhouse gases in the County. An inventory of the greenhouse gas emissions level in 1990, currently, and that projected for the year A target for the reduction of emissions attributable to the county s discretionary land use decisions and its own internal government operations.

19 San Bernardino Settlement It is a model that I encourage other cities and counties to adopt

20 If you like Sausage or Public Policy..

21 Budget (Un)Settlement SB 97, Statutes of 2007 OPR, by July 1, 2009, to prepare guidelines for the feasible mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions or the effects of greenhouse gas emissions including, but not limited to, effects associated with transportation or energy consumption. The Resources Agency would be required to certify and adopt those guidelines by January 1, 2010.

22 Leadership

23 Leadership

24 Thank You! Panama Bartholomy (916) state.ca.us