Human Health, Climate Change and Sustainable Development. Martin Parry WGII, IPCC

Transcription

1 Human Health, Climate Change and Sustainable Development Martin Parry WGII, IPCC

2 Malaria transmission season Estimated for the present day (falciparum) London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

3 Malaria transmission Change in duration of season, 28s Unmitigated emissions London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Stabilisation at 75 ppm Stabilisation at 55 ppm 2 to 5 months 1 to 2 months 2 to 1 months 5 to 2 months

4 People at risk of malaria additionally from climate change 35 London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Additional people at risk (millions) s 25s 28s Unmitigated emissions 75 ppm stabilisation 55 ppm stabilisation

5 Figure 11-12: Heat stroke morbidity cases per million; Tokyo, July- August, , males >65 years) (Piver et al., 1999)

6 Millions at Risk in the 25s Additional millions of people at risk of hunger, malaria and coastal flooding ppmv 75 ppmv Unmitigated emissions - IS92a Additional millions of people at risk of increased water shortage Legend Risk of water shortage Risk of malaria Risk of hunger Risk of coastal flooding Temperature Increase

7 Millions at Risk in the 28s Additional millions of people at risk of hunger, malaria and coastal flooding Stab. 45 Stab. 55 Stab. 65 Stab. 75 Stab. 1 Unmitigated emissions - IS92a Additional millions of people at risk of increased water shortage Legend Risk of water shortage Risk of malaria Risk of hunger Risk of coastal flooding Temperature Increase

8 Annual runoff Percentage change in 3-year average annual runoff by the 28s. University of Southampton

9 Population under extreme stress Population (millions) s 25s 28s Change, due to climate change, in the number of people living in countries with extreme water stress. University of Southampton

10 Crop yield change (Hadley model) Percentage change in average crop yields for the climate change scenario. Effects of CO 2 are taken into account. Crops modelled are: wheat, maize and rice. Changes shown are averaged for national or regional levels based on the economic components of the Basic Linked System. Jackson Environment Institute, University College London / Goddard Institute for Space Studies / International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

11 Cereal production (mmt) Reference scenario Climate change scenario 22s 28s 22s 28s 25s 25s % change in prices from 199 baseline s 25s 28s Projected global cereal production for reference case and the climate change scenario. Percentage change in global cereal prices under the climate change scenario ( = Projected reference case). Additional millions of people at risk of hunger s 25s 28s Additional people at risk of hunger under the climate change scenario ( = Projected reference case). Jackson Environment Institute, University College London / Goddard Institute for Space Studies / International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

12 People at risk from sea-level rise 7 6 % increase s 25s 28s Percentage change in the number of people at risk under the sea-level rise scenario and constant (199s) protection (left bar) and the sea-level rise scenario and evolving protection (right bar). Middlesex University / Delft Hydraulics

13 Emissions and concentrations of CO 2 from unmitigated and stabilising emission scenarios Anthropogenic CO 2 emissions (GtC/yr) CO concentration (ppm) Unmitigated emissions 75 ppm stabilisation 55 ppm stabilisation Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

14 Changes in river runoff from the present day to the 28s Unmitigated emissions University of Southampton Stabilisation of CO 2 at 75 ppm Change in annual runoff (%) Stabilisation of CO 2 at 55 ppm to

15 Changes in water stress from the present day to the 28s Decreased water stress Increased water stress Billions of people University of Southampton Unmitigated Emissions 75 ppm Stabilisation 55 ppm Stabilisation

16 Changes in crop yield from the present day to the 28s Potential change in cereal yields (%) No data Unmitigated emissions University of East Anglia Stabilisation of CO 2 at 75 ppm Stabilisation of CO 2 at 55 ppm

17 Global Estimate of Additional People at Risk of Hunger due to Climate Change Additional Millions of People Year Unstabilised Stabilised at 75ppmv Stabilised at 55ppmv

18 Conclusions Most serious effects are at the margins. Stab n at 75 does not avoid most effects. Stab n at 55 does, but cost (= c.2 times Kyoto reductions). Adaptation AND stabilisation are necessary. Sustainable development (cf SRES B2 marker scenario) a potential solution.