Climate Change Adaptation in New Hampshire

Transcription

1 Climate Change Adaptation in New Hampshire Sherry Godlewski NH Department of Environmental Services

2 Our Planet Has a CO 2 -Blanket

3 Petit et al., 1999 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Record

4 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide & Temperature Record Petit et al., 1999

5 Historical and Future Carbon Dioxide Levels CO 2 Concentration in Ice Core Samples and Projections for Next 100 Years Projected (2100) Projected (2100) Vostok Record Vostok Record Law Dome Record Mauna IPCC IS92a Loa Record Scenario IPCC Law Dome IS92a Record Scenario Mauna Loa Record Current (2009) Current (2001) CO 2 Concentration (ppmv) , , , , Years Before Present(BP 1950) C h a l l e n g e s o f a C h a n g i n g E a r t h Source: C. D. Keeling and T. P. Whorf; Etheridge et.al.; Barnola et.al.; (PAGES J u l y / 2 IGBP); IPCC

6 Global Temperature

7 Average Ice Out Day Trend Ice Out data from Hodgkins et al., 2002 and at: (27 Lakes) 4.5 days earlier over 81 years 8.0 days earlier over 36 years

8 Summer (JJA) Arctic Sea Ice Extent University of Illinois The Cryosphere Today

9 Summer (JJA) Arctic Sea Ice Extent University of Illinois The Cryosphere Today

10 Projected Rise in Global Sea Level

11 Relative Sea Level Rise Saco. Maine 17 Apr 2007 SW Shore, Nantucket, 18 Apr 2007 Data from Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level

12 Hampton NH with 3.3 feet of sea level rise

13 Indicators of Climate Change in the Northeast More precipitation More frequent extreme precipitation Winter warming Decreased snowfall Fewer days with snow on ground Lake ice out dates earlier Earlier spring runoff Extended growing season Sea level rise Drought Hodgkins et al., 2002; 2003; Wolfe et al., 2005; Wake and Markham, 2005; Wake et al., 2006

14 Projections of Climate Change in New Hampshire Days per year over 90 o F

15 So how do we know if this is happening in New Hampshire?

16 Upper Connecticut River Valley - June 2005

17 Southwestern NH October 2005

18 Central NH - May 2006

19 Eastern NH - April 2007

20 Deerfield Flooding April 23, 2007

21 VT and Upper Valley July 2007

22 Flooding in NH October 2005 May 2006 April 2007 September 2008 The three separate downpours in March 2010 have set new rainfall records across the region! Dover May, 2006 Fosters Daily Democrat Dover April, 2007 C. Skoglund

23 J-86 J-88 J-90 J-92 J-94 J-96 J-98 J-00 J-02 J-04 J-06 J Presidentially Declared Storm Related Disasters Year of Storm Event

24 J-86 J-88 J-90 J-92 J-94 J-96 J-98 J-00 J-02 J-04 J-06 J Presidentially Declared Storm Related Disasters Year of Storm Event

25 New 2010 Report Conclusions Historical trends of increasing extreme precipitation are connected to greenhouse gasenhanced climate change Driven primarily by the burning of fossil fuels and land use changes... More likely than not that human influence contributed to the trend toward more extreme precipitation events Future increases in extreme precipitation are very likely.

26 February 2, 2011

27 2010's World Gone Wild: Quakes, Floods, Blizzards Earthquakes, heat waves, floods, volcanoes, super typhoons, blizzards, landslides and droughts killed at least a quarter million people in the deadliest year in more than a generation. More people were killed worldwide by natural disasters this year than have been killed in terrorism attacks in the past 40 years combined. "It just seemed like it was back-to-back and it came in waves Craig Fugate US FEMA US FEMA handled a record number of disasters in 2010; 79 as of Dec 14. The average year has 34. WMUR, 12/10/10

28 New Hampshire Governor s Climate Change Policy Task Force Executive Order, Dec 6, 2007 Establish quantified greenhouse reduction goals Recommend specific regulatory, voluntary and policy actions that NH should consider to achieve these goals. NH Climate Action Plan - March 2009

29 Overarching Strategies to Achieve Goals 1. Maximize energy efficiency in buildings and transportation; 2. Increase renewable and low-emitting heat and electric power sources; 3. Protect our natural resources to maintain the amount of carbon sequestered; 4. Develop an integrated education, outreach and workforce training program; and 5. Adapt to existing and potential climate change impacts.

30 Mitigation

31 Adaptation

32 CO 2 persists in the atmosphere

33 NH Climate Action Plan Adaptation Focus Areas Public Health and Wellness Natural Ecosystems - protect and buffer impacts Built Environment - resilience to impacts Economic Development

34 Adaptation Goals Increase resilience Communities, ecosystems, species Facilitate responses Help adjust to new conditions Build resistance into systems Maintain valued resources Implemented individually and/or simultaneously

35 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health Climate Change Effects: Temperature Sea Level Precipitation Extreme Weather Events Food Water Coastal Flooding Infectious Disease Air Quality Heat Civil Conflict Malnutrition Drought Displacement Morbidity / Mortality Respiratory Diseases Direct Effects Morbidity / Mortality / Displacement

36 Adaptation in NH State-wide efforts State Public Health System Capacity assessment; focus groups Strategic Plan completed NH Fish & Game Updating Wildlife Action Plan Coastal Adaptation Workgroup Key stakeholders in coastal watershed Working to create a tool box for municipalities Integrate into local planning efforts Hosting educational forums

37 Adaptation in NH Local efforts Keene 1 st City in NH to have a plan Integration into Comprehensive Master Plan 0Report_ICLEI_FINAL_v2.pdf Seabrook Incorporating adaptation planning into land protection priorities, master planning, flood hazard overlay zone, and hazard mitigation cuments/adaptation_planning.pdf

38 Adaptation in NH Local efforts Sunapee Region - New London, Sunapee, Newbury, Springfield, Goshen, Sutton assessed 180 culverts, changes in rainfall, population and building permit forecasts; protect vulnerable storm water & drinking-water systems, provide adaptation information to support community-driven decision-making Ashuelot River Local Advisory Committee Model Forest Policy Program through Climate Solutions University Sustainable forestry, ecosystem functions, protect water resources & improve rural economies

39 State Climate Change Adaptation Plan Appropriately scaled Spatial Regional Local Temporal Extreme events respond (flooding) Slower changes prepare (sea level rise)

40 State Plan more Include missing sectors Forestry / Agriculture / Public Infrastructure Include all considerations Economic Social Ecological Coordinated among partners

41 Going Forward Understand risks and vulnerabilities Establish no regrets policies Integrated planning with multiple stakeholders (i.e. emergency managers, health officers, others?) Incorporate into existing planning tools (i.e. Master Plans, Hazard Mitigation Plans)

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44 Sherry Godlewski