Transformational Change Toward Decarbonization Initial Findings of the Global Energy Assessment

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1 Transformational Change Toward Decarbonization Initial Findings of the Global Energy Assessment Nebojša Nakićenović International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx Technische Universität Wien xx IIASA-RITE International Symposium, Keidanren Kaikan 8 February 2010

2 Global Energy Challenges Affordable access to energy and food (a prerequisite for reaching MDGs) Energy and ecosystems services Security and reliability of systems Deep GHG emissions reductions Technology R&D and investment 2 Confluence of multiple crises

3 Confronting the Challenges of Energy for Sustainable Development: The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and its international partners present

4 GEA Objectives Include: Science based, comprehensive, integrated, and policy-relevant analysis of issues and options related to: Energy and sustainability challenges Resource and technology options, demand and supply System issues, scenarios Policy options Local, regional, and global dimensions

5 GEA Analysts 198 persons, including CLAs, LAs, ExComm Co-Chairs

6 Sponsoring Organizations International Organizations GEF IIASA UNDESA UNDP UNEP UNIDO World Bank (ESMAP) Industry groups First Solar Petrobras WBCSD WEC NOTE: * = in negotiations Governments/Agencies Austria European Union Germany Italy Norway* Sweden USA (EPA, DoE) UAE* Foundations UN Foundation Climate Works Foundation

7 Concepts and Approach GEA structure is organized around Knowledge Clusters comprising Knowledge Modules Structure is being determined through an ongoing consultative process Outline presented here is evolving Knowledge Clusters and Modules will be tightly integrated sequential numbering in this presentation does not imply a sequential or linear approach within the GEA

8 Integration of Knowledge Clusters Cluster I characterizes nature and magnitude of challenges, and express them in selected indicators Cluster II reviews existing and future resource and technology options Cluster III integrates cluster II elements into systems, and links these to indicators from Cluster I This will include energising of rural areas, land use, water, urbanisation, life-styles, etc. Scenarios, using numerical models and storylines, will be used for the integration, in an iterative fashion Cluster IV assesses policy options, and specifically identifies policy packages that are linked to scenarios meeting the needs, again in an iterative fashion.

9 Overall Scenario Framework Overarching scenario logic that is simple and flexible Provide an organizing principle for storylines: Narratives of contrasting worlds Internally consistent descriptions of how objectives are met under different developments (interplay between external factors & set of energy measures as well as resulting characteristics of the transformation) Need to define main dimensions, eg: drivers of change to achieve the necessary transition (eg, public awareness vs technology breakthroughs) broader energy responses (eg, demand pull vs supply push) policy environment (eg, regional vs global concerns)

10 Mapping Energy Access Final energy access (non-commercial share) in relation to population density Billions of people: Abject poverty: 1.3 Poor: 0.6 Less poor: 1.4 Middle class: 1.4 Rich: Source: Gruebler et al, 2009

11 Scenario Development Process Participatory Process for Scenario Logic Taxonomy qualitative Iterations Main Scenarios GEA Indicators (targets) quan + qual Models: IMAGE MESSAGE GEA-H GEA-M GEA-L KM inputs (costs, potentials, technology, etc..) incl. uncertainties quantitative Iterations Sensitivity Analysis On specific issues Policy KMs

12 GEA Scenarios & Energy Challenges Energy Access L M Sustainable Development Environment H Energy Security Technology Drive

13 Scenario Characteristics Energy Access Very high efficiency & rapid energy intensity improvements behavioral/life-style changes, including mobility, diets toward less meat, interconnected homes, etc.. Sensitivity: 0-nuclear & 0-CCS cases Very stringent climate targets (400 ppm equ. with overshoot or 450 ppm without) C Heterogeneous combinations, eg C&B Different regions with different degree of fulfillment of SD criteria Rapid access and security improvements Intermediate climate targets (550 ppm equ. or 500 ppm with overshoot) and implications of delayed participation Sensitivity: implications A of financial crises (transition under capital scarcity); Sustainable Development Massive supply-side changes and B new infrastructures Environment Eg: H2 + very cheap CCS, nuclear and renewables Energy Security Intermediary energy intensity improvement (higher demand than C) stringent climate targets (450 ppm equ. with high overshoot or 500 ppm) Technology Push

14 Modeling set-up One Counterfactual (WEO & intermediate IPCC scenario B2) 3 fulfillment and transformational scenarios Counterfactual only for showing benefits of policy packages (and avoided impacts) Emphasis on 3 sustainability transformations 3 Modeling teams to develop all scenarios or just variants

15 Global Population Projections Literature range GEA (World)

16 Global Economic Development Literature range GEA (World)

17 GDP, GEA-M

18 GDP, GEA-M

19 GDP, GEA-M

20 GDP, GEA-H

21 GDP, GEA-L

22 kgoe/$ Energy Intensity Improvements 10.0 China ( ) 1.0 India ( ) USA ( ) GEA-Noth America ( ) Japan ( ) 0.1 GEA-Central Asia ( ) GEA-South Asia ( ) GEA-Pacific OECD ( ) GDP/capita(mer) US$(2000)

23 Final energy share (percent%) Final Energy Transformations 100% 80% 60% On-site generation Grids (gas, district heat, electricity, hydrogen) 40% 20% 0% Liquids (oil products, biofuels, other liquids) Solids (coal, biomass) GEA-L GEA-H

24 Primary Energy (EJ) Global Primary Energy Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass

25 Primary Energy (EJ) Global Primary Energy Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass

26 Primary Energy (EJ) Global Primary Energy Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass

27 Carbon Reservoirs Atmosphere 800 GtC (2004) Biomass ~500 GtC Unconventional. Gas ~1000 GtC N. Gas ~250 GtC Unconventonal Oil Oil ~250 GtgC ~250 GtgC Soils ~1,500 GtC Coal 3,500 to 7,000 GtC Unconventional Hydrocarbons 15,000 to 40,000 GtC Nakicenovic #<#>

28 Methane Hydrate Nakicenovic #<#> 2010

29 Only one third of sedimentary basins has been searched for oil with modern techniques Far more exploration wells (each yellow dot represents 2,000) have been drilled in the U.S. than in any other country. Quelle: Maugeri, 2009 Nakicenovic #<#> 2010

30 % of population and energy use % of population and energy use Europe Population vs. Energy Demand Density Note in particular renewable supply density threshold of maximum W/m < >25 WEU POP W / m2 WEU ENE WEU: 21% of demand below renewable density threshold EEU: 34% of demand below renewable density threshold < >25 W / m2 EEU POP EEU ENE

31 PV costs (1985) Yen per W PV costs (1985) Yen per W Japan - PV Costs vs. Expenditures 100, , : 30, : 30, : 1976: 16,300 16,300 Cost reduction ~ $ ,000 10, : 4, x y = 10 R 2 = ,000 1,000 Basic Basic R&D R&D Applied R&D 1985: 1,200 Investment 1995: Data source: Watanabe, 1995 &1997 Data Source: Watanabe, 1997 ~ $ , ,000 Cumulative expenditures, billion (1985) Yen Cumulative expenditures, billion (1985) Yen Nakicenovic Grübler, 2002 #<#> 2010

32 Investment Costs per kw in US$90 Future Technology Learning 10,000 1, ,000 10,000 Cumulative Installed Capacity [GW] 100,000 Source: Riahi, 2009

33 Life years lost number of life years lost over an average lifetime above 30 years (millions) Health Benefits of Pollution Control (loss of stat. life expectancy - PM) 6000 World High GEA 2030 Source: Smith et al, 2009

34 Global Carbon Emissions

35 Energy Systems Investments GEA-M

36 Energy Systems Investments GEA-L

37 Billion dollars Global Investments in New Renewables % Geothermal Marine & small-hydro Biomass Solar Wind Source: IEA, 2009

38 Billion dollars Global Investments in Upstream Oil and Gas % * Source: IEA, 2009

39 A Vision of a Future Energy System Nakicenovic Source: EU, 2002 #<#> 2010

40 Towards a more Sustainable Future The magnitude of the change required in the global energy system will be huge The challenge is to find a way forward that addresses simultaneously climate change, security and equity issues. Paradigm change is needed: radical improvements in energy end-use efficiency, new renewables, advanced nuclear and carbon capture and storage. 49

41 IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis