CHAPTER 20 PROJECTION

Transcription

1 CHAPTER 20 PROJECTION After formulating the development concept and evolving the development policy and strategy in tune with the development, in order to derive the proposed land use and sector wise proposal we have to analyze the future demand and requirements. In fact the projection of future demand and requirement is one of the most difficult parts of preparation of development plan and the success of the plan to the extent depends on the accurate projection of demand and requirement envisaging the future development. In other words the development plan is prepared to allocate the resources optimally so as to meet the requirement of the future population in sustainable planned manner and also to enhance the quality of life. Since the future is always associated with uncertainties, precise projection is extremely difficult. In this chapter the population is projected based on development concept and future requirements of various sectors and calculated based on existing standards Population The population projection for 2011, 2021 and 2031 of the Municipality are made by assuming that the same trend in the population growth continues. The population is projected by six methods and the average of the six is taken to arrive at the population figures in 2011, 2021, The following methods are used. a) Arithmetical method b) Geometrical Increase method c) Incremental increase method d) Decreasing rate method e) Graphical rate method f) Apportionment method Arithmetical Method This method is based on the assumption that the increase in population is constant. In this method, the average increase of population for the last three or four decades is worked out and then for each successive future decade, their average is added. This method gives low results, as such is applied for old and large cities. The population at the end of n year or decades is calculated by the equation. Pn = P+ni Where Pn = Population at the end of n year or decades. P = Present population i = Average increase per year or decade. The projected population by this method is shown in Table

2 Table 20.1: Projected Municipal Population-Arithmetical Method Year Population Increase in Population Total Average 5129 Population for 2011= =34741 Population for 2021= =39870 Population for 2031= = Geometrical Increase Method In this method the percentage increase in population from decade to decade remains constant. From the available census records this percentage is fixed and then population of each future successive decade is worked out. This method gives high values and is applied to young and rapidly growing cities. Thus the population at the end of n year or decades is given as Pn=P (1+r/100) n Where r = Average percent increase per decade. The projected population of Kalpetta by this method is shown in Table Table20.2: Projected Municipal population-geometrical method Year Population Increase in Population % in increase % % Total % Average % Population for 2011 = 29612*23.76% = = Population for 2021 = 36646*23.76% = = Population for 2031 = 45354*23.76% = =

3 Incremental Increase Method It is suitable only for towns having increasing growth rate trend; Kalpetta has decreasing growth trend, hence avoided Decreasing rate Method In this method it is assumed that rate of percentage increases or decreases and the average decrease in the rate of growth is calculated. Then the percentage increase is modified by deducting the decrease in rate of growth. This method is applicable only in such cases where the rate of growth of population shows a downward trend. By this method, the population growth rate of 2011, 2021 and 2031 are calculated by assuming that the same percentage decrease in population growth prevails as that of 2001 for the succeeding decades. The projected population of Kalpetta by this method is shown in Table 20.3 & 20.4 Table 20.3: Projected municipal population rate of decrease Year Population Growth rate Change in growth rate % % ( )/(27.88) = % Change in growth rate is %. It is used to calculate the growth rate in 2011, 2021 and The population in the future decade with calculation is shown below in Table Table20.4: Projected Municipal population- decreasing rate method Year Growth rate Population *( /100) = *( /100) = *( /100) = *(1+9.75/100) = *( /100) = *(1+6.87/100) = Graphical Method In this method, a curve of population against time is drawn for the city under consideration. The known census records are put up on the graph to get the shape of the curve. The curve is then carefully extended from present to future decades and the population after each successive future decade is read from the curve. This extension has to be done carefully and it requires vast experience and good judgment. The projected population of Kalpetta by this method is shown in Table 20.5 and Fig

4 Population Fig 20.1 Projected Municipal population Graphical method Table 20.5: Projected Municipal population Graphical method Apportionment Method Year Expected Population In this method, the ratio of municipal population to the state population is found out and the same is projected to the next decades by assuming the change in ratio during , , is same the value as that during The projected population of the Municipality based on the apportionment method is shown in table 20.6.& 20.7 Table 20.6: Projected municipal population change in ratio Year Population Population of Change in Ratio Kerala (X) Municipality (Y) municipality to State Y/X = = Assumes that the change in ratio in 2001 i.e., will continue in future decade also. So the population in 2011, 2021 and 2031 is shown below. 234

5 Year Kerala Population of municipality to State Population = The projected total population by the above mentioned methods differs slightly. The average of these five projected values is taken as the population figures of the Kalpetta Municipality and same is shown in Table Table 20.8: Projected Municipal population of Kalpetta municipality Sl Total Population no Method Adopted Arithmetic Method Geometric Method Decreasing rate Method Graphical Method Apportionment Method Average Projected Population So it can be concluded that the total population of Kalpetta Municipality will be 34766, and on 2011, 2021 and 2031 respectively based on the projection. However, the Municipality shall attract migration of certain population to it due to the development projects envisaged in the some of the sectors. Hence, the population in the horizon year is considered to be 46,000 for calculation purposes Sector wise Requirement s The Projected population in 2031 is and for the purpose of assessment of sector wise requirements, this is rounded off to 46, Trade and Commerce As per standards an area of 0.24 H/1000pp is required in Kalpetta municipality for trade and commerce. In 2031, the population will reach Hence the land required for 46,000 people for development purpose are 11.04=12 Hectares Animal Husbandry Table 20.7: Projected Municipal population-apportionment method * = = * = = * =42223 In 2001, the population is and we expect that in 2031, the population will be Thus the present requirements in animal husbandry sector are projected by adding the 235

6 proportionate growth (55%) to the present requirement of meat/egg/milk for calculating the projected requirement. Cattle -40 tonnes/month (260 nos/month for 29612*46000) Goat tonnes/month (80 nos/month for 29612*46000) Pig kg/month (16 nos/month for 29612*46000) Chicken nos /month (24000 nos /month for 29612*46000) Milk Ltrs/day (1551 Litre/day for 29612*46000) Milk booth - 10 Nos (1 no /5000 population*46000) Traffic and Transportation Survey conducted by NATPAC reveals that, Kalpetta has a fairly good road network and almost all the roads except NH 212 will be sufficient to meet the present requirements. But an additional burden of traffic due to the ban of night journey through Bandhipur National Park. It is found that more than 50% of the vehicles are through vehicles which can be by passed. It includes goods vehicles and MAT. The NATPAC observations are 1. NH 212 from Traffic junction to civil stations exceeds the carrying capacity by 2011 onwards and all other roads have v/c ratio less than It is estimated that all the major roads will cross the carrying capacity by 2020 onwards. 3. It is observed that the number of incoming vehicles and that passes through the towns are far greater than the trips originated from the town. The Traffic volume and carrying capacity of different roads are shown in the Table Homoginous sections Table 20.9: Traffic Volume and carrying capacity of different roads Capacity Volume PCU/day V/C Volume PCU/day V/C Volume PCU/day V/C Volume PCU/day 1.N H Vellaramkunnu - Madiyoorkuni Madiyoorkuni - Bypass junction Bypass junction - Pinangod road jn Pinangod road jn. - Munderi road jn Munderi road jn. - Civil station road jn Civil station jn. - Kainatty jn Kainatty jn. - Town limit Meppady road - By pass junction - Puthurvayal Puthurvayal- A R Camp V/C 236

7 3. Pinangod road NH road junction - Warehouse junction Warehouse junction- Town limit Manathavady road Emili road Vellaramkunnu road Warehouse - Munderi junction Puliyarmala road - Maniyamkode jn. - Govt. ITI junction Govt. ITI jn. - Mananthavady road Munderi road NH junction - Emili road jn Emili road jn.- Munderi junction Munderi jn. - Maniyamkode junction Maniyamkode jn. - Kottathara road town limit Water Supply At present water is supplied by an old RWSS scheme established in 1984 in which only 40 Lpcd Water is supplied. Acute scarcity of drinking water is being experienced during summer months. A water supply scheme under UIDSSMT has been envisaged in the planning area which will cover the future demand Current Water supply = 2,25,000 litres Per capita requirement = 135 lpcd. Required by 2031 = litres Add. For Wastage, fire fighting, street washing etc. = litres. Additional demand for floating population (@ 25%) = litres. Grand Total litres =8.69 MLD Since the existing scheme is outdated a demand of 8.69 MLD has to be met from the new scheme. The ultimate capacity of the UIDSSMT Scheme is 14 MLD. So there will be no water scarcity in Solid Waste Management Solid waste generated in Kalpetta municipality is 9 tonne per day and out of it 8 tonne is collected by the municipality. The collected waste is disposed into the waste disposal ground at Chundappadi owned by the municipality. 237

8 Rate of solid Waste generation as per standard = 220gm/head/day Waste generation in Kalpetta by 2031 = (46000*220) =10.12 T/day Add 30% for floating population (10.12*0.3) = 3.03 T/day Total waste generated in 2031 = =13.15 T/day Present Waste Generated in Kalpetta = 9 T/day Future quantity of solid waste to be handled by 2031 = =4.15= 5 Tonne /day Energy As per standards, consumption of power works out to be 2 KW/House holds. The consumption of power by 2031 is worked out to be 1840 KW for a population of 46,000 with HH size of 5. Table 20.10: Power consumption Category Existing Nos Standards recommended Demand by KV substaion - 1 for 15,000 person 3 Nos LPG Godown 1 for thousand 2 person Nil Petrol pumps 3 1/150 Ha of gross residential and 1/40HHs of Industrial area Education As per UDPFI standard, there should be one LP school for 2500 people, one UP school for 7500 people, 1 HS for 13000, 1 HSS for 13000, 1 Arts & science College for 80000, 1 poly technique for 36000, 1 ITI/ITC for 35000, 1 TTI for , 1 professional college for people. In Kalpetta municipality, the only shortage is seen in LP schools, Poly technique and Professional college. The other educational facilities will be sufficient for the municipality in The details are shown below. Table Demand on education sector Sl No Category Existing No Standards Recommended Demand 2031 Shortage 1 LP 15 1/2500 Population UP 13 1/7500 Population HS 10 1/13000 Population HSS 4 1/13000 Population Arts & Science College 1 1/80000 Population Poly Technique College 0 1/36000 Population ITC/ ITI 3 1/35000 Population TTI 1 1/ Population Professional College 0 1/ Population

9 Health In Kalpetta municipality, the health facilities for the projected population are sufficient. As per UDPFI standard, 1 PHC for people, 1 taluk hospital for a taluk and 1 district hospital for people. There are 4 Primary health centres and taluk hospital in the municipality. The no of medical institutions are given below. Table 20.12: Demand in health sector Sl No Category Existing no Standards Recommended Demand PHC 4 1 for Taluk Head Quarters Hospital 1 1 in taluk 0 3 Distict Hospital 0 1 for Distict Co-Operative Hospital MSP Hospital Ayurvedic Hospital Homoeo clinic Private Hospital Housing In Kalpetta municipality, the land needed for residential purpose for the projected population in 2031 will be 6.1 sq km. Average plot size for a house hold is Hectare. The projected house hold no is The detailed calculation is shown below. Average plot size = H/HH Present HH size = 5 No. of Households = 6365 Nos Projected Population 2031 = rounded to 46,000 Projected No. HH = 6365*46000/29612=9888= rounded to No. Projected requirement of land for Housing = *10000= 607 Hectare =6.1 Sq.Km Recreational facilities Even though there is one park in the municipality, which is badly maintained and there is not enough space for refreshment facilities. Community hall, Library and recreational clubs are sufficient for the projected population. Park & open space and community room is required for the municipality. 239

10 Sl No Table 20.13: Demand in recreational sector Existing Standards Category no Recommended Park & Open Space sq. m 1 (Overall Town) /Person Community Room 0 1 for 5000 persons Community Hall & Library Recreational Club for persons 1 for persons 1 for persons Demand Ha 9 Nos (660 m 2 each) Other facilities The fire station and religious sites are sufficient as per the UDPFI standard for the projected population in the Kalpetta municipality. There is one fire station with 40 staff is functioned in the municipality. Table 20.14: Demand of other facilities Sl No Category Existing Standards Demand No Recommended Fire Station 1 1 for Religious Sites 10 2 for