Nuclear Detonation Response Planning

Transcription

1 Nuclear Detonation Response Planning National Academy of Sciences Workshop Buddemeier, Brooke CHP August 2019 This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC

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3 Detailed IND Effects Analysis from DHS S&T Block by Block Assessment of Effects: Daytime Population Overpressure (psi) Thermal Effect (cal/cm 2 ) Prompt Radiation Fallout dose and dose rate

4 Evaluating Line-Of-Sight Exposures Reduced range of: Thermal Burns Prompt Radiation Green and blue represent areas of little or no injury for the hazard being analyzed Detonation at 300 m ~1/2 mile radius Detonation at the surface For a 10kT High Rise Area In-the-open R. E. Marrs, W. C. Moss, B. Whitlock, Thermal Radiation from Nuclear Detonations in Urban Environments, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, June 7, UCRL-TR

5 Guidance Based on Updated Science

6 Defined of 5 Key Response Zones

7 NYC Example: Times Square 10kT The Light of a Thousand Suns Scenario Presumptions: 10kT Yield (equivalent to 5,000 Oklahoma City Truck Bombs) Ground Level Detonation at Times Square New York City Workday Weather profile from August 14 th

8 Severe Damage Zone Severe Damage Zone Major Building Damage / Collapse >8psi ~½ mile 8

9 Moderate Damage Zone Severe Damage Zone Moderate Damage Zone Major Building from ½ Damage to 1 mile/ Collapse significant >8psi structural ~½ miledamage, blown out building interiors, blown down utility poles, overturned automobiles, some collapsed buildings, and fires 9

10 Light Damage Zone Moderate Light Damage Zone from from ½ to 1 to mile 3 miles significant Windows structural broken damage, & glass blown out building injuries interiors, blown down utility poles, overturned automobiles, some collapsed buildings, and fires 10

11 FALLOUT If the detonation occurs close to the ground, radioactive fallout can be created The Fireball rises at speeds greater than 100 mph, drawing thousands of tons of dust and debris upward that mix with the fission products. The fallout cloud rises several miles into the atmosphere before the particles fall back to earth contaminating surfaces Dangerous levels of fallout creates visible dust and debris. These particles give off penetrating radiation that can injure people (even in cars or inadequate shelter) 11 11

12 Fallout Creates Ground Level Radiation Fallout particles collect on the ground under the cloud, creating dangerous radiation levels close in 12

13 First 2 hours of Fallout 13

14 Fallout Extent at 2 Hours Dangerous Fallout Zone >10 R/h Radiation represents a direct health threat. Radiation Injury can result for those that do not shelter 14

15 Severe Damage Zone (0-0.5 mile) Moderate Damage Zone (0.5-1 mile) Prompt Fatality 31% Uninjured Recover 6% 9% Prompt Fatality 2% Light Damage Zone (1-3 miles) Prompt Fatality Expectant 0% 0% Expectant 4% Risk 11% Risk 32% Expectant 22% Total Population 740,000 MDZ: ~250,000 at risk injuries Dangerous Fallout Zone (Outside LDZ) Uninjured 62% Recover 21% Risk 7% Uninjured 75% Recover 18% Total Population Total Population 1,347,000 1,427,000 LDZ: ~150,000 at risk injuries DFZ: ~100,000 at risk injuries 15

16 Injury Summary (NYC Scenario) Over 1 million injuries* ~ 400,000 in Recover (low exposure) category ~ 500,000 in Risk (significant exposure or injury) category At Risk radiation injuries may not be initially apparent Acute Radiation Syndrome often progresses over weeks, allowing extended opportunity for medical intervention With medical care, more than 100,000 potential At Risk fatalities can be avoided. * Presumes prompt effects & 2 hours of outdoor fallout exposure 16

17 Challenge: Rapidly Changing Environment 17

18 Challenge: Establish Staging Areas & Reception Centers Sites should be established outside the Hot Zone, but close to the community that they will be serving Max Extent of DFZ (2.5 hrs post Det) At 1 week, DFZ is gone Hot Zone at 1 week (> 10 mr/h) Max Extent of Hot Zone (18 hrs post Det) 18

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20 Detectable Contamination at 1 Week We can detect radiation at very low levels. After an event of this magnitude, there may be no clean area. Regional Responders Detect elevated background as far away as Baltimore Levels are from 2-3 times background to 10 mr/hr (near the hot zone)

21 Key Fallout Considerations Fallout Decays Rapidly (releasing more than half of its energy in the first hour) The primary hazard from fallout is being is exposure to penetrating radiation from the particles Dangerous levels of fallout is readily visible as it falls Fallout is not a significant inhalation hazard The radiation penetrates through windows and walls, but exposure decreases with distance and intervening materials. 21

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23 How Many Exposures Can Sheltering Avoid? 12 hour Exposure: Workday Population (excluding those in SDZ and MDZ) ~700,000 Significant Exposures Avoided! If everyone went into a poor shelter If for everyone the first in 12 New hours, York stayed outside for 12 hours, there would there would be ~50% be ~1,400,000 fewer PF = 40+ Significant Exposures from casualties FALLOUT (~700,000 locations radiation significant be exposure (Excludes SDZ & MDZ)) exposures instead found of throughout 1,400,000) Adequate (PF = 10) can save over 1,000,000 people from significant Manhattan exposure!

24 GET INSIDE. STAY INSIDE. STAY TUNED Go to the basement or the middle of a building. Plan on hours unless provided updated guidance. AM/FM Radio is best, Cellular and Internet if available.

25 What About Higher Yields? Even when yields change by a factor of 10, blast effect ranges only change by about a factor of 2 At higher yields, thermal effects become more prominent At lower yields, prompt radiation effects become for prominent

26 What about Height of Burst? Notice air gap between fission products and dirt/debris stem Hiroshima Nagasaki Hiroshima and Nagasaki: 10 minutes after burst

27 Duck and Cover 2.0: Addressing our Expanded Threat Base Imminent Nuclear Threat Protective Actions for Prompt Effects minutes to get into a good shelter Get inside a basement or central room away from windows and doors, stay inside, stay tuned for more information No Notice Detonation Duck and cover still works for prompt effect protection, But requires hyper vigilance for no-notice detonations Nuclear Fallout 15 minutes or more to take action after detonation Get inside a basement or central room, stay inside for hours, stay tuned for more information Communicate Hazards Fire or other hazard may be more immediately life threatening, be prepared to provide updated information 27

28 Saving Lives after a Nuclear Detonation Fallout Exposure is Preventable Adequate (protection factors of 10 or higher) shelters are easy to find in the urban environment. For this NYC scenario, a million people can avoid significant exposure getting inside after the detonation. Response Actions Can Save Hundreds of Thousands Shelter to prevent fallout exposures Response planning to manage those injured by the prompt effects or who didn t get into adequate shelters. There is time to provide critical care before radiation illness manifests More Analysis is Needed to Anticipate Response Needs for Higher Yields and Heights of Burst 28

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30 Status: Prototype Development Fraction of Building Area Local Building Protection Analysis Analyze individual building protection to estimate shelter quality High Rise Steel Frame High Rise Masonry water locations have been rendered white Best protection provided by local building stock Combine with FEMA HAZUS data on population distribution within buildings (Poor) Low Rise Steel Frame Mid Rise Masonry Protection Factor (Good) Shelter Quality Poor Inadequate Adequate Good

31 Regional Shelter Model Products Maps of Regional Shelter Quality Local Shelter (best nearby shelter) Shelter in Place (best shelter within a building) No Response (people stay put) Maps of Indoor Radiation Combine regional shelter quality with outdoor radiation estimates Outdoor Radiation Regional Shelter Quality Indoor Radiation Potential 100 R Gamma Exposure Local Shelter Potential 100 R Gamma Exposure Images for illustrative purposes only. For visualization purposes, surface water locations have been rendered white.

32 Height of Burst (feet) Fallout Free Height of Burst 2,500 "Fallout Free" HOB 2,000 1,500 Hiroshima Nagasaki 1, Yield (kilotons) A detonation above this height will still produce some fallout, but the local fallout ceases to be a serious problem. [Glasstone and Dolan, 1977:71]