Impacts of Climate Change in Europe. - JRC research to support adaptation options

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1 Information Exchange Event JRC Norway; Oslo 18 th June Impacts of Climate Change in Europe - JRC research to support adaptation options Guido Schmuck

2 Overall aim of work Overall objective Information Exchange Event JRC Norway; Oslo 18 th June Quantification of physical and socio-economic impacts of CC Evaluation of adaptation strategies Preparedness: focus on forecast, early warning and land management Scenario analysis: strategies to prevent and reduce impacts Development of an integrated modelling framework to assess current and future impacts of CC Better understanding and prediction of CC driven events Development of advanced modelling techniques and indicators New and improved information about natural resources including biomass

3 Policy Background Information Exchange Event JRC Norway; Oslo 18 th June CC Mitigation UNFCCC- Kyoto protocol REDD, LULUCF initiatives Beyond 20% greenhouse gas emission reductions (COM ) International climate policy post-copenhagen (COM ) CC Adaptation Green paper on adapting to CC (COM ) White paper on adapting to CC (COM ) Impact assessment report (SEC ) Sectorial papers within 2009 (386, 416, 417) Green paper on forest protection (COM ) International climate policy post-copenhagen (COM )

4 Potential impact from Climate Change Information Exchange Event JRC Norway; Oslo 18 th June Climate Change Scenarios Atmosphere / cryosphere / sea Greenhouse gases concentration Temperature (means & extremes) Precipitation (means & extremes) Storms Sea level rise Permafrost/ice melting Ground level ozone Ecosystem conditions and supporting services Species phenology Species distribution Forest fires Water quality Floods Soil degradation Water scarcity droughts Economic impacts Infrastructures and physical capital (Damages, Losses) Production and Consum ption (Processes, consumer behaviour, Growth potential, Variability/disruptions activity) Employment Impact on Ecosystem services Provisioning (Food, Freshwater, Wood/fiber, Fuel) Regulating (Climate, Flood, Diseases, Water purification) Cultural Social Impacts Health (Mortality, Morbidity, Labour productivity) Distributive impacts (Social groups, Regions) Resource conflicts Migrations Social fabric Governance Source: DG Environment

5 Information Exchange Event JRC Norway; Oslo 18 th June Specific application areas Forests Soil Water Agriculture Coastal areas

6 Forests: species suitabilty Information Exchange Event JRC Norway; Oslo 18 th June Current distribution Suitability map Suitability map/a1 scenario

7 Forests: Green infrastructure Information Exchange Event JRC Norway; Oslo 18 th June

8 Forest Fires Information Exchange Event JRC Norway; Oslo 18 th June

9 Water quantity: Floods Information Exchange Event JRC Norway; Oslo 18 th June

10 Water quantity: Droughts Information Exchange Event JRC Norway; Oslo 18 th June

11 Water and Hydropower Information Exchange Event JRC Norway; Oslo 18 th June Daily average river flow at hydropower stations in Europe ( A1B) Water Deficit In collaboration with IE

12 Agriculture Maize yield Information Exchange Event JRC Norway; Oslo 18 th June B1 Source: IPSC

13 Heat Waves Information Exchange Event JRC Norway; Oslo 18 th June Control Period Scenario Period Heat wave event defined by HWDI of 7 continuous days during summer period

14 Soil organic carbon and land-use Information Exchange Event JRC Norway; Oslo 18 th June a) Cropland b) Grassland Projected Changes in SOC, only Climate (t C ha -1 )

15 Coastal areas Information Exchange Event JRC Norway; Oslo 18 th June People actually flooded (thousands/year) < People actually flooded (thousands/year) < Source: PESETA

16 The way forward Information Exchange Event JRC Norway; Oslo 18 th June To reduce uncertainty improved models/ new models e.g. LISFLOOD, EFDM, EUCLUESCANNER improved data collection e.g. LUCAS, Reference Data Initiative better availability of quality controlled data Go4 ---European Data Centres To improve access to regional climate models To interlink physical models of ecosystem sectors To better link to socio economic modeling To test adaptation scenarios CC Adaptation Clearing House To improve of forecasting systems EFAS, EFFIS, EDO

17 Information Exchange Event JRC Norway; Oslo 18 th June Thank you!