Fossil Fuels & Carbon Capture & Storage

Transcription

1 Fossil Fuels & Carbon Capture & Storage Richard Aldous Chief Executive Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Technologies (CO2CRC) Australia's Energy Future 30 Oct 2012 CO2CRC All rights reserved

2 CO2CRC Participants Supporting Partners: The Global CCS Institute The University of Queensland Process Group Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Government of South Australia Charles Darwin University Simon Fraser University Established & supported under the Australian Government s Cooperative Research Centres Program

3 What is CO2CRC? CO2CRC is one of the world s leading CCS Research organisations R&D across the CCS value chain Brings industry sectors together (coal, gas, power, etc) to provide an exceptional stakeholder base Brings together Commonwealth, States, local government and the community in the Otway Project Includes major research institutions - CSIRO, Geoscience Australia, Universities, major overseas institutions eg. LBNL( USA), KIGAM(Korea) Over 150 leading researchers in CCS Broad international perspective and experience Successful track record in running major CCS facilities $ 20-25M per year on CCS research 3

4 Temperature change over the past 1000 years in the northern hemisphere (adapted from Mann et al, 2009) Climate Change Science is getting stronger - tracking at the upper levels of the predictive models - what will, be the tipping point? Scenario: much stronger calls for action in the next 10 years?

5 Fossil Fuel Consumption is growing strongly - CCS is the only technology that can manage the CO2 Global energy demand and fuel sources (data source: OECD/IEA 2010)

6 Age distribution of power stations worldwide

7 Countries signed up to 2 degree limit by 2050 to meet reduction targets CCS will be required costs will be 40-70% higher without CCS (IEA) Global emissions and world population growth (data source: OECD/IEA, 2008; United Nations 2004) This is how much more CO 2 we can release to stay below 2 deg C ~ 560 Gt Fossil fuel reserves ready to go 5 + times this and still exploring

8 Carbon capture & storage (CCS) value chain Greatest uncertainty!

9 Pressures on and around CCS Climate Change Emissions Reduction > $ Global and National Coherence Policy Preserve the Economy < $ GFC & Slowing global growth Renewables Energy Efficiency CCS Low cost reliable electricity

10 Solutions & Perception Problems ( CC US)

11 The need for global and national coherence : but fighting amongst ourselves in a time of crisis Low Emission Fossil Fuels We Prefer Renewables ETS Direct Action Act on climate Change Preserve the Economy

12 Implicit abatement subsidies for a range of technologies (after Productivity Commission, 2011)

13 Germany concerns about the switch to renewable energy 1. Energy costs will be the big issue of next year s federal elections. 41% don't want to pay 1c more for renewables (only 10% would pay 25 / m more ) The renewable energy transition is going to cost us an incalculable sum of money, and in the end cost us our competitiveness. Arnold Vaatz, Vice Chairman of the CDU parliamentary party: Citizens just don t have an overview of what this trip is going to cost and where it is taking them. Gerd Billen, Director of Federal Association For Consumer Agencies Technical feasibility of wind and solar,- infrastructure power transmission lines, back-up energy systems /power storage What we have are highway bridges without highways. Concern that a once super stable power grid could collapse Germans paid 2.3 billion in electricity surcharges, taxes etc the figure is 23.7 billion (1000% higher) 1. FOCUS magazine

14 CCS Likely to be essential to meeting targets Important if we are to keep the cost of abatement down developing is not optional, it is literally of the essence. 1 Former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair With nine billion people expected on the planet in 2050, there is no way we can choose between increased energy production and reduced CO2 we have to achieve both. Without CCS, we cannot do it. 2 Norway s Prime Minister Stoltenberg CCS will be needed on natural gas power plants and other major emitters, such as cement and steel plants and gas production. The IEA advise that a climate strategy with CCS would have approximately half the marginal cost in 2050 of a program lacking CCS technology & global cost savings attributable to CCS would total $1.3 trillion per year in Steven Chu, U.S. Secretary of Energy 1 Breaking the Climate Deadlock, A Global Deal for Our Low Carbon Future (speech), T. Blair, The Climate Group, Whatever happened to carbon capture in the fight against climate change?, D. Carrington, The Guardian, May 9, 2012, capture storage climate change. 3 Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Table 2.5, International Energy Agency, 2008

15 75 CCS Projects: - 8 in operation, 8 in construction (36mtpa in 2015) Europe North America China Australia GCCSI 2012

16 Australia : signed up to 2050 targets looking to save 897 Mtpa by 2050 Carbon pricing to drive target Core policy scenario- Domestic reductions Savings purchased offshore Assumes CCS available (Carbon Price +$125/t by 2050) Carbon savings - High policy scenario (Carbon Price +$250/t by 2050)

17 Over 100 Mtpa CO 2 required to be stored by 2050 (in both Treasury scenarios) Estimated Carbon Stored in Australia 1: Estimated Carbon Stored - Core policy scenario Core Policy C Price +$125/t by 2050? Carbon Savings - High policy scenario High Policy C Price +$250/t by 2050? Coal Power Coal Power High carbon price scenario has more CCS from gas combustion 1 Based on Treasury modelling and estimates of LNG production

18 Over 100 Mtpa CO 2 required to be stored by 2050 (in both Treasury scenarios) Estimated Carbon Stored in Australia 1: Estimated Carbon Stored - Core policy scenario Core Policy C Price +$125/t by 2050? Carbon Savings - High policy scenario High Policy C Price +$250/t by 2050? Coal Power Coal Power High carbon price scenario has more CCS from gas combustion 1 Based on Treasury modelling and estimates of LNG production

19 Possible development pathway for a nation storing 100+ Mtpa by 2050 (cumulative capacity) 1 2 3

20 CCS Projects in Australia? CCS potential on other LNG projects?

21 CarbonNet Flagship CCS Project - $100M for exploration & feasibility World class CCS location next to large coal resources Some of Australia's highest emitting power stations Map from GeoScience Australia 10 s of billions of tonnes of brown coal here World class carbon storage potential

22 Sleipner CO 2 Storage (STATOIL) 250 kilometres west of Norway in the North Sea Injection into Utsira Formation, a sandstone. 1 million tons CO 2 per year since 1996

23 Sleipner 4D seismics Time lapse surveys 1994 (prior to injection) multiple repeats Seismic Results CO2 clearly observed in reservoir Outline of plume clearly defined Plume spreading out thinly under cap rock No migration out of formation

24 Pilot plant and demonstration Facilities New 1tpd capture plant at Hazelwood Otway Storage Demonstration

25 Gorgon Project, Barrow Island, Western Australia Gorgon In Salah Dupuy Formation Rangely Snohvit Sleipner Lost Hills Weyburn Otway Project Frio Vacuum Active Sequestration project Planned Sequestration project Active CO 2 EOR projects Mass of CO 2 (millions tonnes)

26 NGCC beats Brown Coal PCC Data from BREE 2012

27 Brown Coal PCCS less exposure to gas price & carbon price Data from BREE 2012

28 Falling CAPEX for Flue Gas Desulphurisation 1970s 2000 (1997 $s/kw of capacity) By 2008 SO 2 emissions had fallen to 94% of 1980 emissions in the UK

29 Costs have to be driven down CCS Technologies on the generic Grubb Curve ( from "Leading the Energy Transition: Bringing Carbon Capture & Storage to Market" SBC Energy Institute 2012)

30 65-70% Reduction in Capture Cost? using a variety of technology and engineering with UNO (CO2CRC technology) - others doing similar things costs +/ 30% but could represent CCS costs of less than $ 60 /t CO2 C A P E X O P E X Amine (HI) CO2CRC s UNO Mark III With heat integration

31 The effects of technology improvements in PCC Data from BREE 2012 and CO2CRC

32 Securing the Option to Deploy CCS CCS an important technology progress made but it is slow, lacks strong political support compared to renewables Strategically important for Australia to build and retain the option to deploy CCS in the next years. CCS is likely to be a competitive technology in Australia s low emission future, the option to deploy CCS requires further action. Costs must be driven down and indications are that significant reductions can be made Exploration needs to be progressed and technology needs to be developed and applied to meet Australian conditions. Australia also needs to develop the skills & capability to more widely deploy CCS ( R&D / demonstration is vital) In the absence of strong market forces, all of this needs a focussed strategy and the necessary funding ( $30 bn on MRET, $2bn on CCS )

33 Residual CO 2 saturation during plume migration

34 CO2CRC Participants Supporting Partners: The Global CCS Institute The University of Queensland Process Group Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Government of South Australia Charles Darwin University Simon Fraser University Established & supported under the Australian Government s Cooperative Research Centres Program