Parabolic Trough Solar Technology for Utility Power Markets in the Southwestern United States

Transcription

1 Parabolic Trough Solar Technology for Utility Power Markets in the Southwestern United States Henry Price National Renewable Energy Laboratory Golden, Colorado Slide 1

2 Talk Overview US Southwest Power Market Cost of Electricity from Conventional Sources How Solar Power Fits with the Grid Cost of Solar Electricity Slide 2

3 Southwest Market Overview Generation & Transmission Generation Hydro Coal Nuclear Gas Transmission Power Flows Direction of Flow Slide 3

4 Southwest Market Overview Abundant Solar Resources Slide 4

5 Southwestern U.S. Electric Generation 2002 Electric Generation by Primary Energy Source (billion kwh) (Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico) Hydroelectric 12% Nuclear 19% Renewables 7% Other 0.4% Coal 25% Natural Gas 37% Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Hydroelectric Renewables Other Note: These states also import a significant amount of hydroelectric and coal power from surrounding states. Slide 5

6 Conventional Sources of Electric Generation Nuclear Hydroelectric Coal Natural Gas No new nuclear power plants are currently being developed Environmental considerations preclude future development Environmental and siting considerations make it very difficult to build coal plants near existing population centers, constrained transmission Constrained supply, price volatility and increasing cost Slide 6

7 Natural Gas Price Forecast Pacific Region Delivered Gas Price [2002 $/MMBtu, HHV] AEO 2004 Actual Year Slide 7

8 Cost of Electricity Advanced Combined-Cycle EIA AEO2004: Pacific Region Electric Costs Advanced Combined Cycle Capital Real Cost of Energy (2004 $/kwh) Fixed O&M Variable O&M Fuel Energy = $0.037/kWh Fuel + Variable O&M Capacity = $84/kW-yr Capital + Fixed O&M Annual Capacity Factor Slide 8

9 Cost of Electricity Conventional Pulverized Coal EIA AEO2004: Pacific Region Electric Costs Conventional Pulverized Coal Capital 0.16 Fixed O&M Real Cost of Energy (2004 $/kwh) Variable O&M Fuel Energy = $0.017/kWh Fuel + Variable O&M Capacity = $146/kW-yr Capital + Fixed O&M Annual Capacity Factor Slide 9

10 Comparison of Electric Generation Costs EIA AEO2004: Pacific Region Electric Costs Real Cost of Energy (2004 $/kwh) Adv CT Adv CC Conv Coal Adv Nuc Seq CC Seq Coal Annual Capacity Factor Slide 10

11 Minimum Cost Generation Source EIA AEO2004: Pacific Region Electric Costs Real Cost of Energy (2004 $/kwh) Adv CT Adv CC Conv Coal Adv Nuc Annual Capacity Factor Slide 11

12 Influence of Natural Gas Price on the Cost of Electricity Real Cost of Energy (2004$/kWh) EIA AEO2004: Pacific Region Electric Costs Advanced Combined Cycle Annual Capacity Factor $3/MMBtu $5/MMBtu $7/MMBtu AEO2004 Slide 12

13 Solar Generation Cost Targets 0.12 $3/MMBtu Real Cost of Energy (2004$/kWh) $0.076/kWh $0.056/kWh $5/MMBtu $7/MMBtu AEO % 50% Annual Capacity Factor Note: 1.0 MMBtu = GJ Slide 13

14 Southern California Edison Time Of Use Periods Slide 14

15 Solar/Hybrid Plant 30 MW SEGS Plant Output Net Output (MWe) On-Peak Day of Year Time of Day Slide 15

16 Do Solar Plants Deserve Full Capacity Payment? On-Peak Capacity (%) 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% SEGS III - VII On-Peak Performance Mount Pinatubo Volcano Insolation (kwh/m^2/day) SCE Summer On-Peak Jun - Sep Weekdays 12 noon - 6 pm Firm Capacity Requirement Minimum of 80% capacity Factor During On-Peak 0% Solar Contribution Boiler Contribution Direct Normal Radiation Slide 16

17 Cost of Solar Electricity from Parabolic Trough Plants Slide 17

18 Cost of Electricity Levelize Cost of Energy (2004 $/kwh) Reno, NV (2300 kwh/m2-yr) Las Vegas, NV (2600 kwh/m2-yr) Kramer Junction, CA (2900 kwh/m2-yr) Reference Trough Plant 100 MWe Solar Only Current Solar Technology Slide 18

19 Cost of Trough Electricity as a Function of Plant Size Levelize Cost of Energy (2004 $/kwh) Single 50-MWe Single 100-MWe Single 200-MWe Power Park 4x100-MWe Slide 19

20 Influence of Financial Incentives on the Cost of Electricity Levelize Cost of Energy (2004 $/kwh) Single 100 MWe Plant 4x100 MWe Power Park Target Electric Price for $5/kJ Gas Current IPP Finance Current + PTC 1.8 /kwh 30% ITC Low Cost Debt (5%) Utility Finance Muni Finance (5.5%) Slide 20

21 Market Conclusions Natural gas is the marginal fuel and defines the value of electricity in the Southwest Trough plants have demonstrated the ability of solar electricity to meet utility firm capacity requirements Trough technology is close to competitive with conventional power sources at today s natural gas prices Additional financial incentives, access to lower cost financing, or renewable market portfolio standards are needed to accelerate development of trough power in the Southwest. Slide 21