Energy Strategy of Russia till 2030: Methodology, Expected Results, System of Implementation

Transcription

1 Energy Strategy of Russia till 2030: Methodology, Expected Results, System of Implementation Deputy Director of Department of State Energy Policy and Energy Efficiency of Ministry of Energy of Russia Yury L. Baron Moscow, February 2010

2 Goal and principles of state energy policy Goal: Maximum efficiency of utilization of energy resources and entire potential of energy sector for maintaining sustainable economic growth, improvement of quality of life of population and facilitation of strengthening its positions in the global economy. Principles: Consistent state policy aimed at implementation of the most important strategic energy development guidelines. Commitment to creation of strong and sustainable energy companies representing Russia in the global markets and enhancing successful competition in the domestic markets. Credibility and predictability of state regulation aimed at encouragement of entrepreneurial initiative in the area of implementation of goals of state policy including investment sphere 1

3 Major domestic and global challenges Internal challenge: The most important role of national energy sector in the projected transition to innovative economic development and its implementation. This challenge is determined by priorities and guidelines presented in approved Long-Term Development Concept and their extension till 2030 as well as by backbone role of energy sector in the Russian economy External challenge: Necessity to overcome threats posed by instability of global energy markets and volatility of world energy resources prices and commitment of national energy sector to improvement of efficiency of foreign economic activity and strengthening of position of Russia in the global economic system 2

4 Basic hypotheses of social and economic development forecast Hypothesis I Rates of social and economic development defined in approved Concept will be achieved by the end of the first stage of implementation of Energy Strategy 2030 and beginning of postcrisis period (approximately ) Hypothesis II Levels of social and economic development defined in approved Concept will be achieved in by the end of the second stage of implementation Energy Strategy 2030 (approximately, ) through high development rates in post-crisis period Energy Strategy 2030 does not define specific trajectories but it sets a model of long-term development of energy sector within defined (basic) forecast field 3

5 Targets of system of relations and interaction between energy sector and economy Target 2005 (actual) 2030 Change, % Share of energy sector in GDP 30% 18% - 12% Share of energy resources exports in GDP Share of energy resources in exports 19% 5% - 14% 61% 34% - 27% Shares of investments in GDP 27% 11% - 16% Specific energy intensity of GDP Specific electric intensity of GDP 100% 43% - 57% 100% 59% - 41% 4

6 Variation of scenarios (on the example of power generation and consumption) Electric power generation, bln. kwh Electric power consumption, bln. kwh 2 years 2 years Year 1 1 year Moderate scenario Innovational scenario Moderate scenario Innovational scenario Risks of deviation of scenarios from basic forecasts are factored in through possible shifting of the end of the first and second stages of implementation of Energy Strategy

7 Implementation Stages of Energy Strategy 2030 First stage (till ) Fast recovery from crisis in economy and energy sector, creation of conditions and elimination of limitations for rapid post-crisis development Use of economic crisis for upgrading and modernization of fuel and energy sector Second stage (till ) General improvement of energy efficiency of economy and energy sector, innovative renovation of fuel and energy sectors Rapid implementation of energy projects in Eastern Siberia, Far East, Yamal Peninsula and Arctic shelf Third stage (till 2030) Highly efficient use of traditional energy resources; Gradual transition to energy of future; 6

8 Structure of state energy policy MECHANISMS Delivery of strategic targets Favorable economic environment Subsoil use and management of state subsoil fund Social policy in energy sector Standards and procedures Strategic initiatives State owned-property management Development of domestic energy markets Regional energy policy Development of rational fuel and energy balance Foreign energy policy Energy security Energy efficiency of economy Economic efficiency of energy sector Environmental safety of energy sector 1 st stage 2 nd stage 3rd stage Prospective condition of energy sector Scientific-technical and innovation policy POLICIES 9

9 Production and consumption of primary fuel and energy resources Mln. ton of equivalent fuel Production Export Domestic consumption 2005 (actual) 2008 (actual) 1 st stage 2 nd stage 3 rd stage 8

10 Structure of production and consumption of primary fuel and energy resources Production Consumption Non-fuel Solid fuel (coal, etc.) Liquid fuel (oil and condensate) Gas st stage 2nd stage 3rd stage (actual) (actual) st stage 2nd stage 3rd stage (actual) (actual) 9

11 Export of fuel and energy resources Mln. ton of equivalent fuel CIS Non-CIS countries Total exports st stage 2nd stage 3rd stage (actual) (actual) 10

12 Strategic non-fuel energy sector development initiative 2008 (actual) 1 st stage 2 nd stage 3 rd stage Non-fuel power generation (NPP, HPP, renewable energy sources) Fuel-based power generation (condensation power plants, thermal power plants) In 2030 renewable energy power generation (geothermal, wind, tidal, biomass energy, etc.) will reach bln. kwhr, i.e. it will grow by more than one order of magnitude 11

13 Indicators of strategic development of oil industry Indicators/areas Subsoil use efficiency 2008 (actual) 1st stage 2nd stage 3rd stage Oil recovery factor (ORF) Share of Eastern Siberia and Far East in oil production, % Oil production Oil transportation Growth of capacity of trunk pipelines for exporting oil in non-cis countries, % of 2005 Oil refinement Oil processing depth Light oil product yield Nelson complexity index 4,3 6,0 6,5 8,5 Per capita consumption of oil products, ton 0,5 1,0 1,1-1,3 1,3-1,6 Export of oil and oil products Share of eastern direction in total export of oil and oil products, %

14 Indicators of strategic development of natural gas industry 2008 Indicators/areas 1st stage 2nd stage 3rd stage (actual) Gas production Share of new areas in total gas production, %, incl Yamal Eastern Siberia and Far East Share of independent gas producers and vertically integrated oil companies in total production, % Gas transportation Growth of length of main gas pipelines, % of 2005 level Share of reconstructed active gas pipelines, % of total length of Unified Gas Supply System Gas exports Share of Asia-Pacific Region in exports structure, % LNG share in exports structure, %

15 Indicators of strategic development of coal industry Indicators/areas Coal production and transportation Share of newly commissioned production capacity in total coal production, % Share of Eastern regions of Russia (Kansko-Achinsk basin, Eastern Siberia, Far East) of total coal production, % 2008 (actual) 1st stage 2nd stage 3rd stage Capacity of coal terminals of sea ports, % of 2005 level Coal conversion Dressing of power generating coal, % Calorific equivalent of coal fuel consumed in domestic market 0,62 0,65 0,70 0,75 Scientific and technical progress and innovations Share of advanced coal production technologies of total coal production: - underground method (longwall mining) surface mining (continuous and continuous-cyclic methods) Share of coal used for deep conversion of total coal production, % 0,0 0,0 1,5 5-8 Economic efficiency of coal industry Growth of production per employee, % of 2005 level Growth rates of face output, % of 2005 level Environmental efficiency of coal industry Ratio of land reclamation to annual land disturbance, % Share of polluted water discharge of total water discharge, % Water cycle index 0,7 0,73 0,8-0,85 0,9-0,95 14

16 Indicators of strategic development of electric power industry Indicators/areas Share of non-fuel energy sources in power generation structure, % 2008 (actual) Electric power generation 1st stage 2nd stage 3rd stage 32,5 not less than 34 not less than 35 not less than 38 Share of gas in fuel supply structure, % Share of coal in fuel supply structure, % Fuel supply of thermal electric power stations 70, Energy security and reliability of power supply Probability of deficit-free operation of Russian energy systems 0,996 not less than not less than not less than Efficiency of electric power industry Efficiency of coal power stations, % 34 not less than 35 not less than 38 not less than 41 Efficiency factor of gas power stations 38 not less than 45 not less than 50 not less than 53 Efficiency of nuclear power stations, % 32 not less than 32 not less than 34 not less than 36 Specific consumption of fuel for thermal power station output, g fuel equivalent/kwh (% of 2005 level) Losses in electric networks, % of electric power supply 333 (99%) up to 315 (94%) up to 300 (90%) up to 270 (81%) 13 up to 12 up to 10 up to 8 15

17 Indicators of strategic development of heat supply Indicators/areas Heat supply interruption frequency, 1 /year st stage 2nd stage 3rd stage (actual) Energy security and reliability of heat supply 0,27 up to 0.25 up to 0.20 up to 0.15 Frequency of heat supply interruptions caused by sources, 1 /(source year) 0,06 up to 0.05 up to 0.03 up to 0.01 Reconstruction of heating networks, % of total length of networks 2% not less than 10% not less than 40% not less than 90% Innovative development of heat supply Share of systems equipped with new highly efficient operational technologies, % 10% not less than 40% not less than 80% 100% Efficiency of heat supply Fuel heat utilization efficiency in thermal power station, % of 2005 level Average specific fuel consumption in boiler houses, % of 2005 level 5% not less than 15% not less than 40% not less than 50% 99% up to 98% up to 94% up to 90% Improvement of energy efficiency of buildings, % of 2005 level 5% not less than 10% not less than 30% not less than 50% Share of heat losses in total heat generation, % 19% up to 16% up to 13% up to 8-10% 16

18 Investments in development of fuel and energy complex and energy power supply Bln. USD at 2007 prices Oil industry Natural gas industry Coal industry Electric power industry Power supply 1 st stage 2 nd stage 3 rd stage Total 1 st stage 2 nd stage 3 rd stage Total 17

19 Monitoring of activities of state energy policy More active geological exploration of new territories and aquatories; Encouragement of private investments in geological exploration and subsoil use; Encouragement of efficient subsoil use based on full and comprehensive recovery hydrocarbons from subsurface formations; Development of market of independent subsoil use and engineering services; Improvement of state control over the level of economic concentration in energy markets; Creation and development of Russian exchange systems trading all types of fuel and energy resources; Development of efficient and stable system of tariffs and pricing in energy markets; Reduction of share of gas in structure of domestic consumption of fuel and energy resources and raising of share of non-fuel energy in structure of fuel and energy balance; Streamlining of exports and domestic consumption of fuel and energy resources; Encouragement of production, export and domestic consumption of higher added value energy resources; Improvement of interaction of Federal and regional authorities in energy sphere; 18

20 Monitoring of activities of state energy policy State support of development of regional and interregional energy infrastructure; Encouragement of comprehensive development of regional energy sector; Creation of sustainable innovational system in energy sector; Securing of reliable power supply for population of Russia at socially affordable prices; Expansion of real interaction of energy business and society for addressing energy sector development problems; Development and improvement of efficiency of utilization of human potential of energy sector; Protection of national interests of Russia in the system of world energy markets; Diversification of energy export markets; Diversification of commodity structure of exports, expansion of exports of higher added value products; Assurance of stable conditions in export markets that includes security of demand and justifiable prices for main Russian energy exports products; Strengthening of positions of leading Russian energy companies in global markets; Efficient international cooperation for implementation of high risk and complicated projects in Russia (including offshore projects in the Arctic region). 19

21 Annual report to the Government of the Russian Federation about progress of Energy Strategy 2030 Assurance of delivery of main strategic targets energy security, energy efficiency, budget efficiency and environmental safety of energy sector Implementation of main groups of activities of state energy policy defined in this Strategy Delivery of strategic targets of development of sectors of fuel and energy complex 20