Opening Remarks. Prof. Dr. Nebojsa Nakicenovic. Deputy Director

Transcription

1 Opening Remarks Prof. Dr. Nebojsa Nakicenovic Deputy Director

2 International Institute for National Member Organizations Applied Systems Analysis International, independent, interdisciplinary Research on major global problems Solution oriented, integrated systems analysis

3 IIASA Research Strategy Food & Water Energy & Climate Change Poverty & Equity

4 IIASA Research Strategy Food & Water Energy & Climate Change Poverty & Equity

5 IIASA Research Strategy Food & Water Energy & Climate Change Poverty & Equity

6 IIASA Research Strategy Food & Water Energy & Climate Change Poverty & Equity

7 YOUNG SCIENTISTS SUMMER PROGRAM

8 Nakicenovic GEA, #8

9 Nakicenovic Global Energy Assessment Toward a Sustainable Future IIASA Nebojsa Nakicenovic International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Former Director #9

10 GEA Launch RIO+2, 19 June 212 Kandeh Yumkella, DG UNIDO, referred to the GEA report as the energy bible. Josè Goldemberg, Yong Ha Kim, H.E. Nguyen Thien, L. Gomez-Echeverri, Pavel Kabat, Hasan Mahmud, Kuntoro Mangkusubroto Nakicenovic 213 #1

11 GEA Scenarios & Energy Challenges Energy Access Sustainable Development Environment Supply Energy Security Technology Drive

12 Global CO2 emissions (PgC) Global CO 2 Emissions #12

13 Global CO2 emissions (PgC) Global CO 2 Emissions 3 25 IPCC Category I reductions of 35-75% by 25 Peak by 22 5 almost zero or negative in the long term #13

14 Global CO2 emissions (PgC) Global CO 2 Emissions 3 25 IPCC Category I GEA (SE4ALL) #14

15 EJ Global Primary Energy Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Kommerzielle Luftfahrt Nuklearenergie Mikrochip 4 2 Dampfmaschine Elektrischer Motor Vakuumröhre Ottomotor Fernseher Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass #15

16 EJ Global Primary Energy no CCS, no Nuclear Einsparungen Savings Andere Other renewables E Nuklear Nuclear Gas Öl Oil Kohle Coal Biomasse Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~4% improvement by 23 ~55% renewables by 23 Nuclear phase-out (policy) Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Biomass Source: Riahi et al, 212 Coal #16

17 EJ Global Primary Energy lim. Bioenergy, lim. Intermittent REN Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior) ~4% improvement by 23 ~3% renewables by 23 Limited Intermittent REN Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Source: Riahi et al, 212 #17

18 EJ EJ Global Primary Energy Latin America Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass ~5% efficiency and ~6% renewables 23 Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass #18

19 EJ Global Primary Energy Supply Savings Other renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass Nat-gas-CCS Coal-CCS Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Biomass #19

20 MtCO2 CO 2 Removal Fossil CCS + Bio CSS + Forests PgC 4. PgC 1.3 PgC Source: Riahi, GEA Afforestation/reforestation Biomass to H2 Bio-liquids2 Bio-liquids1 Biomass Gasification (Power) Biomass Power (post combustion) Industry (cement) Gas to liquids SMR (natural gas) Gas Combined Cycle Gas Power Coal to liquids Coal gasification + H2 Coal IGCC (power) Coal post combustion (power) Coal power (retrofit) #2

21 Carbon flux [PgC/yr] Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Land-Use Fossil Fuels Terrestrial Atmosphere Ocean 4 Fossil Fuels 2 Land-Use Terrestrial -2-4 Atmosphere -6 Ocean (PgC /yr) 7.9±.5 1.±.7 2.5±1. (Residual) 4.1±.2 2.3±.5 (5 models)

22 Carbon flux [PgC/yr] Historical Carbon Fluxes Land-Use Change incorporated into Terrestrial Pool Terrestrial Atmosphere Ocean Emissions Fossil Fuels Terrestrial Atmosphere Ocean Historical Data: Global Carbon Project, 21; Le Quere et al., 212 #22

23 Carbon flux [PgC/yr] Historical Carbon Fluxes Terrestrial Atmosphere Ocean Emissions Historical Data: Global Carbon Project, 21; Le Quere et al., 212 #23

24 Carbon flux [PgC/yr] Cumulative emissions since 185 [PgC] 15 geala_45_atr_noccs_nonuc no CCS, no Nuclear Atmosphere Terrestrial BioCCS Ocean Fossil Fuels GEA Efficiency carbon balance since 185 additional carbon in the atmosphere since Source Emissions Atmosphere Terrestrial Sink Ocean Nakicenovic and Rogner, 213, Global Energy Assessment, 212 Historical Data: Global Carbon Project, 21; Le Quere et al., 212 #24

25 Carbon flux [PgC/yr] Cumulative emissions since 185 [PgC] GEA Efficiency Lim. Bioenergy, geala_45_btr_limbe_limir lim. Intermittent REN Atmosphere geala_45_btr_limbe_limir Terrestrial BioCCS carbon balance since Ocean Fossil Fuels additional carbon in the atmosphere since Source Sink Emissions Ocean Atmosphere Terrestrial BioCCS Nakicenovic and Rogner, 213, Global Energy Assessment, 212 Historical Data: Global Carbon Project, 21; Le Quere et al., 212 #25

26 Carbon flux [PgC/yr] Cumulative emissions since 185 [PgC] 15 Atmosphere Terrestrial BioCCS Ocean Fossil Fuels GEA Supply no geam_45_btr_full CCS, no Nuclear carbon balance since 185 additional carbon in the atmosphere since Source Sink Emissions Ocean Atmosphere Terrestrial BioCCS Nakicenovic and Rogner, 213, Global Energy Assessment, 212 Historical Data: Global Carbon Project, 21; Le Quere et al., 212 #26

27 Carbon flux [PgC/yr] Cumulative emissions since 185 [PgC] 15 Atmosphere Terrestrial Ocean Fossil Fuels GEA Supply no geam_45_btr_full CCS, no Nuclear carbon balance since 185 additional carbon in the atmosphere since Source Emissions Atmosphere Terrestrial Sink Limited Bioenergy Bio-CCS negative CO 2 Ocean Nakicenovic and Rogner, 213, Global Energy Assessment, 212 Historical Data: Global Carbon Project, 21; Le Quere et al., 212 #27

28 THANK YOU