Overview. IEEE Boston Chapter ISO New England Inc.

Transcription

1 Overview New England s power system will undergo major changes in the coming years to integrate renewables, demand response, smart grid and other new technologies Good planning helps overcome integration challenges Wind could be well positioned for large-scale growth in New England High Quality Resource Access to large load centers Transparent markets with full suite of products available RPS and RGGI in place Flexible resource fleet to aid in managing variability Demand Response is already playing a large role in New England s Capacity Markets 1

2 About ISO New England Not-for-profit corporation created in 1997 to oversee New England s restructured electric power system Regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Independent System Operator Independent of companies doing business in the market No financial interest in companies participating in the market Major responsibilities: Reliable system operations Administer competitive wholesale electricity markets Comprehensive regional system planning 2

3 At a Glance: New England s Electric Power Grid 6.5 million customer meters Population 14 million 300+ generators 8,000+ miles of high voltage transmission lines 13 interconnections to three neighboring systems: New York, New Brunswick, Quebec 32,000 megawatts (MW) of installed capacity Includes over 2,500 MW demand response and Energy Efficiency System peak: Summer: 28,130 MW (8/06) Winter: 22,818 MW (1/04) 400+ Market Participants 3

4 Proposed Renewable Resources in the ISO Interconnection Queue 4

5 New England Governors Adopt Long-term Renewable Energy Vision States Blueprint as guiding policy and regulatory framework ISO economic study as technical support 5

6 Connecting Wind Energy to Load Centers Population and electric demand are concentrated along the coast in central and southern New England Study identified 12,000 MW of onshore and offshore wind potential Preliminary screening eliminated wind sites near urban areas and sensitive geographic locations (e.g. Appalachian Trail) Transmission will be required to connect potential wind resources to load centers in New England Electricity Demand Wind zones 6

7 What is the New England Wind Integration Study (NEWIS) Study? As a system operator, ISO New England needed a New England-focused analysis New England Wind Integration Study Comprehensive study Highlights operational effects of large-scale wind integration Uses statistical and simulation analysis Includes trending to predict incremental effects Learns from each iteration of simulation and analysis 7

8 Different Scenarios Studied NEWIS looked at specific levels of wind generation: From the interconnection queue: Partial: 1.14 gigawatts (GW) or 2.5% of forecasted energy demand Full: 4.17 GW or 9% of forecasted energy demand Varying amounts of wind penetration: Medium penetration: 6.13 to 7.25 GW or 14% of forecasted energy demand High penetration: 8.29 to GW or 20% of forecasted energy demand Capacity factor: Measures productivity of a facility over time Compares actual production With NEWIS: compared forecasted production 8

9 Partial Build-out of Wind in the Queue Total: 1.14 Gigawatts (GW) 2.5% Annual Energy Transmission System in

10 Full Build-out of Wind in the Queue Total: 4.36 GW 9% Annual Energy Governors 2 GW Transmission Overlay 10

11 Best Onshore + Full Queue Total: 9.77 GW 20% Annual Energy Governors 4 GW Transmission Overlay 11

12 Best Offshore + Full Queue Total: 8.36 GW 20% Annual Energy Governors 4 GW Transmission Overlay 12

13 Balance Case + Full Queue (aka. Best Sites) Total: 8.79 GW 20% Annual Energy Governors 4 GW Transmission Overlay 13

14 Best By State + Full Queue Total: 9.78 GW 20% Annual Energy Governors 4 GW Transmission Overlay 14

15 Maritimes Plus Full Queue Total: 8.96 GW 20% Annual Energy Governors 4 GW Transmission Overlay 15

16 What is Capacity Value? 16

17 20% Energy Scenario: Capacity Values 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 2004 % 2005 % 2006 % Average % Onshore Maritimes Best by States Best Sites Offshore % Offshore 8% 9% 31% 51% 58% 17

18 How are different technologies impacted 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 No Wind 2.5% Energy 9% Energy_Queue 14% Energy_Best Sites Onshore 20% Energy_Best Sites Onshore 24% Energy_Best Sites Onshore GWh 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 CC CT-Oil GT-Gas NUC Pondage Pumped Storage St-Coal St-Gas St-Oil St-Other Wind HQ Imp Imp_Exp 18

19 Next Four Slides: Operational Simulation 19

20 No Wind 20 Simulation Results: Peak Load

21 Best Onshore Wind Simulation Results: Peak Load 21

22 Best Offshore Wind Simulation Results: Peak Load 22

23 What is Regulation? Regulation is the MW required from generators or loads within a Balancing Area like New England that quickly (4 seconds) respond to changes in load and system frequency, to maintain the scheduled system frequency and interchanges with other control areas like New York Changes may be required to our regulation requirements to integrate the higher penetrations of wind that were studied as part of the NEWIS 23

24 Regulation Statistics 20% Energy 24

25 Reserves Reserves are the insurance policy that grid operators use to protect against credible contingencies (i.e. realistic power system faults and combinations of faults) that would negatively affect the operation of the power system. ISO-NE uses several types of reserves Ten Minute Spinning Reserve (TMSR) Synchronized with grid, can provide inertia and governor response Units on Regulation can be counted towards TMSR Ten Minute Non-spinning Reserve (TMNSR) Quick start generation Thirty Minute Operating Reserves (TMOR) Due to the imperfect ability to perfectly forecast it, Wind will increase the need for Reserves 25

26 Operating Reserves Reserves Increase with Wind 26

27 Major Findings/Recommendations Large-scale wind integration is achievable under certain conditions Will require transmission upgrades comparable to the configurations identified in the Governors Study The continued availability of existing supply-side and demand-side resources Increases in regulation and operating reserves as recommended in this study. Wind resources would reduce fossil-fueled generation as an energy resource in New England Would primarily reduce natural-gas-fired generation as an energy resource The results show that wind generation would almost fully displace generation from oil-fired thermal steam units Region needs to maintain a flexible system Any conditions that reduce the system flexibility may potentially, negatively impact the ability of New England to integrate large amounts of wind power Natural Gas Fleet provides much of that flexibility Wind is at its lowest levels in the summer when the system is peaking May require incentives to maintain the Capacity required for peak days and low winds 27

28 Major Findings/Recommendations Significant capacity factors and capacity values for wind Diminishes with increasing penetration or if transmission is not available to move the high quality wind Higher for offshore than onshore ISO will need to develop windpower forecasting capability ISO will need accurate intra-day and day-ahead wind-power forecasts in order to ensure efficient unit commitment and market operation ISO will need tools to forecast wind ramping so that system operators can prepare for volatile wind situations by obtaining additional reserves or making other system adjustments. Technical requirements for wind interconnections must be implemented NEWIS Task II report, Technical Requirements for Wind Generation Interconnection and Integration. These technical recommendations address turbine and plant technology, wind generation forecasting, and grid operations with significant wind generation. Final study published last December 28

29 Demand Resource Integration On June 1, 2010, ISO New England working with its stakeholders implemented an innovative and effective set of Demand Response programs to meet market and reliability objectives in New England The importance of Demand Response continues to increase under the Forward Capacity Markets in New England Demand Response is competing with other Capacity Resources to maintain reliability on the bulk power system Approximately 10% of New England s capacity will be provided by demand and energy efficiency by Demand Resources can provide means of cost avoidance by reducing the need to build additional transmission, generation and distribution facilities Costs can also be avoided by reducing wholesale and ultimately retail prices through the effective dispatch of demand response 29

30 Project Operational Details Types of Demand Response in the new programs Growth of Demand Response Operational objectives of Demand Response Targeted operational dispatch Reliable infrastructure for dispatch Treat Demand Response like Generators Develop advanced tools to determine location and impacts of dispatch of Demand Response on the power system Real world dispatch of resources to control both transmission overloading and shortages of energy and capacity 30

31 Demand Resource Types Demand Resources are installed measures resulting in additional and verifiable reductions in end-use demand on the electricity network in New England. Energy Efficiency Load Management Distributed Generation Demand Response Demand Resource measures fit into one of two general categories: PASSIVE projects, e.g. Energy Efficiency Designed to save energy (MWh); energy savings during peak hours help fulfill Installed Capacity Requirements. DO NOT reduce load based on real-time system conditions or ISO instructions. ACTIVE projects, e.g., Demand Response Are designed to reduce peaks (MW). Can reduce load based on real-time system conditions or ISO instructions. 31

32 Growth in Demand Resources Capacity (MW) 2,000 1,500 1, Pre-SMD VT 71 RI 125 NH 95 MA 593 ME 484 CT 749 Total New Capacity Market promotes increased rate of growth Auction Clears: 2500 MW for MW for

33 What Operational Problems Are We Trying To Resolve With Demand Response? Maintain Operating Reserves Think of it like an Insurance Policy (when something bad happens you ask for payment from your policy) Maintain Transmission Constraints/Interface Limits to avoid instability, uncontrolled separation and cascading overloads Think of this like overloading a circuit in your house or business (too many items plugged into it) 33

34 ISO Dispatches Demand Resources in Targeted Areas Allows dispatch of resources only when, where, and in amounts needed Dispatch similar to generator dispatch Aggregator manages curtailment within zone as long as MW requirements are met, allowing management of fatigue 34

35 New Communications Secure/Redundant 35

36 Further Enhancement/Innovation ISO System Operators have new tools to improve Demand Response Dispatches New Forecasting Tools that provide a better understanding of where, when and how much DR is needed and for how long This will allow for more heads up notification to end use customers Can study the impacts of an interruption or restoration before it happens and exclude customers if necessary We have located all assets (end use customers) down to the substation level and better understand your impact on the grid Have enhanced visibility every five minutes and will be able to monitor individual customer performance in near real-time 36

37 System Load vs. Forecast Real Time Demand Response and storms in SWCT Cold Front moving thru New England 37

38 ISO-NE Peak Day 7/22/11 1:30 PM OP4 Action 3 (voluntary curtailment) 5:45 PM OP4 Actions 2 and 5 Cancelled Noon OP4 Action 1 (allow beginning of depletion 30 min reserves) 4 PM OP4 Action 5 12:15 PM OP4 Action 2 (activate DR) 7:00 PM OP4 Actions 1 and 3 Cancelled 38

39 Boston Import Interface Transmission Constraint OP #4 Action 1 thru 9 implemented OP #4 Action 2-9 cancelled 39

40 Questions? 40