AASHTO Climate Change Adaptation Resources and Activities

Transcription

1 AASHTO Climate Change Adaptation Resources and Activities REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE March 24, 2011 Caroline Paulsen Program Manager for Climate Change AASHTO

2 Climate Change Steering Committee Responsibilities include: Climate Change policy review and recommendations Oversight of the Climate Change Technical Assistance Program REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE Chaired by Paula Hammond, WSDOT Members include 16 state Department of Transportation CEOs Members also serve on a diverse range of AASHTO committees, including Environment Planning Highways Rail Transportation Aviation Public Transportation Center for Environmental Excellence 2

3 Climate Change Technical Assistance Program (CCTAP) Voluntary, pooled-fund program REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE 31 member states in first year (FY09), 32 member states FY10, 28+ members so far in FY11 Goal: to supply AASHTO members with timely information, tools and technical assistance to help them meet the difficult challenges that arise related to climate change 3

4 AASHTO s Climate Change Activities REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE National Symposium on Climate Change On-site State DOT Workshops on Climate Change Climate Change Webinars Weekly Climate Change Newsletters Climate Change Website Coordination with FHWA Peer Exchanges 4

5 AASHTO/FHWA Webinar Topics REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE 1. Climate Change 101: An Overview of Climate Change for State DOTs 2. GHG Legislation, Targets, and Methodologies 3. Climate Adaptation for Transportation 4. Reducing GHG through Traffic Operations, Construction, Maintenance and Agency Operations 5. Reducing GHG through VMT Strategies 6. Reducing GHG Through Low-Carbon Fuels and Fuel-Efficient Vehicles 7. MPO Analysis of GHG Emissions and Reduction Strategies 8. How can state DOTs communicate climate change and energy challenges to the public? 9. What can state DOTs expect in Federal legislation on climate change and energy? 10. Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from U.S. Transportation 11. Electric Vehicles - What, When, Why, and How 12. Current Research on Climate Change and Transportation May 2011

6 On-site State DOT Workshops on Climate Change REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

7 Potential/Future Climate Change Activities REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE PHEV Action Plan Project Climate Adaptation Webinar(s) Climate Change Adaptation Conference/Workshop Infrastructure Adaptation Practitioner s Handbook (future work plans)

8 AASHTO s Climate Change Website REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

9 REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

10 REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

11 REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

12 AASHTO Climate Change Resources REAL SOLUTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ptation/

13 FHWA Climate Change Adaptation Resources and Activities March 24, 2011 Robert Kafalenos FHWA, Office of Natural Environment U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration 1

14 FHWA and Climate Change Adaptation Goal: systematic consideration of climate change vulnerability and risk in transportation decision making Systems level (Metropolitan, Statewide planning) & individual projects, as appropriate Motivations Internal: protect integrity of transportation investments, safety External: CEQ guidance on addressing climate change in NEPA Cooperation FHWA, AASHTO, U.S. DOT, etc. 2

15 Overview of FHWA Climate Change Adaptation Resources and Activities Providing information, outreach; developing and promoting use of tools and methodologies; application Potential Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Transportation Infrastructure: Mid-Atlantic Focus (2008) Regional Climate Change Effects: Useful Information for Transportation Agencies [Climate Effects Typology] (2010) Adaptation peer exchanges (2008, 2009, 2011, etc.) FHWA/AASHTO State DOT climate Change Workshops Vulnerability and risk assessment conceptual model (2010) Pilots of vulnerability / risk assessment conceptual model (ongoing) Gulf Coast Study: Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure Phase 1 Gulf-wide (2008); Phase 2 Mobile, AL (ongoing) FHWA Adaptation Working Group draft strategy 3

16 Regional Climate Change Effects (2010) Report synthesizes information on climate change projections for transportation decision makers Snapshot: Summarizes recent science Projected changes by region Annual, Seasonal Temperature (change in o F) Seasonal Precipitation (% change) Where information exists: Sea level rise, Storm activity Also includes information at local, state scales Received assistance from climate experts at NOAA, USGS, DOE, etc. 4

17 Vulnerability/Risk Assessment Conceptual Model Goal: Help transportation decision makers identify vulnerable assets and adaptation strategies most exposed to the threats from climate change; and/or could result in the most serious consequences as a result of those threats Conceptual model completed Pilots - Use by State DOTs and MPOs ( ) Update the conceptual model 5

18 Vulnerability/Risk Assessment Conceptual Model Develop inventory of infrastructure assets Gather climate data Assess vulnerability and risk of assets to projected climate change Analyze, prioritize adaptation options Monitor and revisit 6

19 Climate Change Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Pilot Locations WASHINGTON San Francisco CALIFORNIA VIRGINIA NEW JERSEY Central New Jersey New Jersey Coastal Hampton Roads Oahu HAWAII

20 New Jersey DOT Study Areas: New Jersey Coastal Central New Jersey Partners: New Jersey DOT North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority, South Jersey Transportation Planning Organization, Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission, New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection 8

21 Washington State DOT Statewide geographic scope Studying WSDOT owned and managed facilities potentially at risk to a range of impacts: Sea-level rise inundation areas Rivers and stream channel migration, melt effects Extreme temperature effects Drought threats to wetland creation, mitigation sites, roadside vegetation, soil moisture/flux, invasive species, worker health, wildfire Precipitation changes- threats to slope stabilization, stormwater management, erosion control, landslides, road survivability Wildfire safety, emergency response 9

22 Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure, Gulf Coast Goals: Assessment of how climate change is expected to affect transportation in the Gulf Coast area; development of adaptation tools and strategies. Phase 1 Overview of climate change impacts on transportation infrastructure, and general options for addressing these challenges Houston to Mobile, completed in 2008 ( Phase 2 Seeks to develop more definitive information and tools Test in Mobile area; plan to make process transferable to other areas Timeframe: U.S.DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting 10

23 Gulf Coast 2 Study: Task Objectives Task 1: Identify critical assets in Mobile Task 2: Climate impacts Develop climate information Assess sensitivity of assets to climate stressors Task 3: Determine vulnerability of critical assets Broad assessment of vulnerability In-depth vulnerability assessment of some of the most critical assets Task 4: Develop risk management tool(s) Task 5: Coordination with Planning Authorities and the Public Ongoing Task 6: Information dissemination and publication 11

24 Task 1: Identify Critical Transportation Systems For each mode, which assets are critical to the Mobile region? Determine Subset of Entire Transportation Network on Which to Perform Vulnerability Assessment and Identify Adaptive Measures Develop a process applicable to multiple transportation modes Conduct a careful review of relevant transportation models Develop GIS layers of critical transportation assets, for later study tasks 12

25 Task 2: Projected Climate Data USGS providing statistically downscaled projections for T and P 4 to 7 Climate models (PCM, Hadley, ) 3 emission scenarios (A1fi, A2, B1); 3 time horizons out to 2100 Secondary variables calculated from daily T and P, e.g., 24-hr precip with 5%/yr prob Sea level rise analysis Range of recent global SLR scenarios used Accounts for local subsidence Storm Surge Modeling ADCIRC Range of storm intensities Output includes surge distribution and dynamics Wave Modeling STWAVE Inputs from ADCIRC output and boundary conditions Outputs include key aspects of wave energy Exposure of transportation systems will be assessed using a GIS analysis 13

26 Next Steps Conduct storm surge and wave modeling runs Conduct exposure analysis of transportation assets to sea-level rise and storm surge Review and process observed and projected climate information for temperature, precipitation and other variables Finalize approach for Task 3 Begin screening critical assets for likely vulnerability to climate change 14

27 15

28 Thank you. U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration Robert Kafalenos Sustainable Transport and Climate Change Team FHWA Office of Natural Environment

29 TRB and AASHTO Climate Change Adaptation Part 1: Case Study New York State DOT Climate Change Adaptation Elisabeth Kolb Sustainability Coordinator /NYSDOT Tel. (518) Webinar Date: March 24, 2011

30 Overview of Presentation Part 1: Setting the Context for Climate Change in New York State Part 2: NYS/NYSDOT Adaptation Efforts Part 3: Looking Ahead

31 Climate Change and Transportation Infrastructure Reduced Vulnerability and Enhanced Adaptive Capacity Climate Vulnerability Adaptation

32 NYS Multi-Modal System Diverse, Complex and Vital 4,137 Rail Route Miles 7,851 State Bridges 11,673 Local/Private/RR Bridges 900,000 Small Culverts 55,000 Large Culverts 40,000 State Lane Miles 200,000 Local Lane Miles 80 Million Airline Passengers 485 Public & Private Aviation Facilities 141 billion vehicle miles annually

33 NYS Geography and Demographic Lake Ontario Lake Erie 47,000 sq. miles land area Drained by > 70,000 miles of streams 10 major river systems 64% population in NYC metro area 87% land area is rural Atlantic Ocean Map Source -

34 New York State Climate Regions - 7 climate regions, 22 meteorological observing stations - Regions were selected based on climate and ecosystems, watersheds and dominant types 6 of agricultural and economic activities.

35 Mean annual changes 2020s, 2050s and 2080s Relative to base period Calculated for 16 Global Climate Models 3 emissions scenarios: A2, A1B, B1 Climate Projection Methods (Basics) IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios Source: ClimAID Report, adapted from IPCC,

36 NYS General Climate Change Projections Temperatures Annual Precipitation Extreme Precipitation Events Sea Level Rise Coastal Storms Reduced Snowfall (Long-term) Freezing Rain Droughts (Summer)

37 Organizational Approach to Climate Change: NYSDOT Commissioner Executive Management Executive Sponsor SPECIAL TASKS: SLR, CLIMATE ACTION COUNCIL, ClimAID; LIAISONS TO PARTNERS Climate Change/Energy Efficiency Steering Committee (Coordinator, Division Reps, Experts) WORK GROUPS (Transportation Actions, NYSDOT Actions, Adaptation ) Program Areas

38 NYS ADAPTATION EFFORTS / RESOURCES Statewide: NYS Sea Level Rise Task Force (2008) NYSERDA s ClimAID Project NYS Climate Action Council (2009) NYS Climate Smart Communities (2009) Local/Regional Examples: New York City s PlaNYC Hudson Valley Climate Action Network Climatologists: NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center Center for Climate Systems Research Columbia University

39 NYS Climate Action Plan (NYSCAP) August 2009: Executive Order 24 80% by 2050; NYS Climate Action Council November 2010: Draft NYS Climate Action Plan Interim Report MITIGATION and ADAPTATION NYSDOT Member of Climate Action Council Integration Advisory Panel Mitigation TWG NYSDOT Lead: Adaptation Subgroup Sector Transportation

40 How can one develop a statewide Transportation Adaptation Plan for a state in seven months?

41 NYSCAP: Adaptation Process 1. Form Interagency Team 2. Populate Template 3. Develop Recommendations 4. Write Narratives 5. Review and Modify 6. Address Public Comments Watkins Glen, NY

42 Meet with Program Area Experts Weigh All Climate Variables Aviation Rail Drainage/Culverts Structures Materials including Pavement For more information see: e.us Climate Variable Populate Template Impact on Resource Collaborate with Partners: Port Authority of NY NJ (PANYNJ) Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) Review Research ClimAID Study Transportation Resource Risk Cost Consequence Timing of Adaptation Adaptation Strategy For more information see:

43 NYSCAP Template Transportation Resources Subject to Adaptation: Culverts Roads Bridges Rail (Public and Freight) Airports Ports Tunnels Ferry Facilities Marine Shipping Public Transit Stations

44 Temperature NYSDOT: Structures: Likely No Major Impacts; Some Joint Buckling Materials including Asphalt: Some Asphalt Stress Winter Maintenance/Snow and Ice: Downstate less; Upstate, more Freezing Rain Construction Season Longer, But Heat Waves OTHER: Rail: Extreme Heat Impact on Equipment and Rail Transit: Strain on Electricity Grid Facilities/Buildings: Strain on A/C Capacity Invasive Species: Increase May Affect Ports (Wood pilings) Region Baseline ( ) s Adirondacks 42 F 4.0 to 9.0 F Port Jervis Baseline ( ) 2080s Heat waves/yr (days >90 F) 2 4 to 9 17

45 Annual Precipitation Annual precipitation increase is manageable. Region Baseline ( ) s Adirondacks 39 in 5 to 15% 18

46 Heavy Rain 23% 16% 3% 15% 31% 67% 20% Northeast: Extreme precipitation events are projected to increase by 67% with longer periods of dryness in between events. US National Assessment publication and reflects work by Groisman et al.

47 Albany Allegany Broome Cattaraugus Cayug a Chautauqua Chemung Chenango Clinton Columbia Cortland Delaware Dutchess Erie Essex Franklin Fulton Genesee Greene Hamilton Herkimer Jefferson Lewis Livingston Madison Monroe Montg. Nassau NY City Niagara Oneida Onondaga Ontario Orange Orleans Oswego Wayne Steuben Tioga Tompkins Schuyler Ulster Westchester Putnam Sullivan Rockland Suffolk Otsego Rensselaer Schenectady Washington Schohari e St. Lawrence Warren Wyoming Yates Seneca Saratoga 0x 1x 2x 3x 4x 6x 7x Flood events per county from (FEMA disaster designation) Albany Allegany Broome Cattaraugus Cayug a Chautauqua Chemung Chenango Clinton Columbia Cortland Delaware Dutchess Erie Essex Franklin Fulton Genesee Greene Hamilton Herkimer Jefferson Lewis Livingston Madison Monroe Montg. Nassau NY City Niagara Oneida Onondaga Ontario Orange Orleans Oswego Wayne Steuben Tioga Tompkins Schuyler Ulster Westchester Putnam Sullivan Rockland Suffolk Otsego Rensselaer Schenectady Washington Schohari e St. Lawrence Warren Wyoming Yates Seneca Saratoga 0x 1x 2x 3x 4x 6x 7x Flood events per county from (FEMA disaster designation) Flooding

48 Sea Level Rise Where? Coastal Long Island, NYC and Tidal Hudson River How? Flooding, Scour, Potential Loss, <Bridge Clearances What?Low-Lying Roads, Tidal Bridges, Rail (Public and Freight), Airports, Port and Ferry Terminals, Tunnels, Marine Shipping Lower Hudson Valley & Long Island Sea Level Rise Sea Level Rise Rapid Ice Melt Baseline ( ) NA NA 2080s + 12 to 23 in ~ 41 to 55 in Rapid Ice Melt Scenario - Western Long Island

49 Sea Level Rise Task Force Some Sea Level Rise Adaptation Strategies: Natural Landscape Features: Large-scale protection - Low cost. Structural protection measures: > expensive, < effective. New infrastructure in low-risk areas. Elevate and relocate existing possible. Many critical maps are out of date. 62% of the NYS population lives in coastal areas

50 Coastal Flooding Due to mean sea level rise alone, the frequency and intensity of coastal flooding will increase. Extreme Event 1-in-100 yr flood to reoccur, on average Flood heights associated with 1- in-100 yr flood (in ft) Baseline ( ) ~once every 100 yrs 2080s ~once every 35 to 60 years to 10.3 Sea Level Rise: Already Occurring Storm Surge: NYS is highly vulnerable to a powerful coastal storm: Four Category 3 hurricanes have hit NYS since 1900 Storm surge can move up Hudson River Vulnerabilities will increase in area and in magnitude over time Combined Force of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

51 Recommendations for NYSCAP Interim Report I. Inventory vulnerability of critical transportation infrastructure. II. Prepare for emergencies. III. Incorporate projections into planning, design, and operations. I. Long-Term Planning: Incorporate stateendorsed climate projections. V. Transportation investments consistent with Smart Growth. For more information:

52 At least be ready for the expected

53 Some Next Steps Fundamental Research Needs: 1. Intense Precipitation Modeling 2. Mapping (next slide) 3. Identify critical infrastructure Provide Guidance to Local Transportation Agencies

54 Some Next Steps Fundamental Research Needs 1. Intense Precipitation Modeling Derive updated drainage design criteria Link Climate data with Engineering Incorporate into DOT Standards Develop Risk Assessment Model

55 Some Next Steps 2. Mapping: Riverine Flooding: Difficult to predict Need storm intensity projections For project screening: Check FEMA 100-yr and 500-yr Floodplain Mapping: - Respect Do Not Build Zone DOT Hydraulics Engineers Sea level rise and storm surge: Coastal impacts Conceptual Screen via DEM analysis. Narrow focus to height above sea level (ex. 6-8 lf) Look for better resources within narrowed down area LIDAR, survey, etc.

56 Some Next Steps 2. Mapping: Some Helpful Suggestions Check First: See what other state or federal agencies are doing in Your state: Check with agency that handles Flood Insurance Maps Contact DOT internal Photogrammetry/Mapping Unit Federal Mapping Resources within States Universities (Remote Sensing Departments) County Governments Statewide Agency: Technology Coordination (in NYS: Office of Technology) FEMA Mapping: fema.gov

57 Some Next Steps 3. Identify critical infrastructure FHWA Adaptation Vulnerability Risk Model Pilot Work with other agencies

58 Next Steps Provide Guidance to Local Transportation Agencies Updated standards Vulnerability Assessments Outreach and Training

59 NYSDOT s Organizational Approach: 2010/11 NEW! Sustainability & Climate Change Section (incl. ADAPTATION) NYSDOT Commissioner Director of Policy and Planning Sustainability & Climate Change Steering Committee (Division Reps, Experts) Volunteer Work Groups Incl. WG#4: Adaptation Program Areas

60 Adaptation and a Sustainable Society NYSDOT s commitment to support a sustainable society Includes integrating adaptation and a greater resilience to climate change Managing risk and cost (economic, social and environmental) in considering present needs without compromising the needs of future generations.

61 Thank you! Contact Information: Elisabeth Kolb Sustainability Coordinator NYSDOT Tel. (518) Many Thanks to: NYSDOT Adaptation Work Group especially Arthur Sanderson, George Long and Sam Elrahman NYS Energy and Research Development NYS Department of Environmental Conservation Art DeGaetano of NOAA Northeast Climate Center Photo Courtesy from Scenic Hudson