RPO Modeling and NAAQS SIP Modeling

Transcription

1 RPO Modeling and NAAQS SIP Modeling James W. Boylan Georgia Department of Natural Resources (Chair for Inter-RPO Modeling Workgroup) 3 rd Particulate Matter/Regional Haze/Ozone Modeling Workshop New Orleans, LA May 18, 2005

2 Outline Background RPO Modeling Organization Domain and Model Inputs Modeling Results Schedule NAAQS SIP Modeling

3 Background

4 RPOs: created by EPA to initiate and coordinate activities associated with the management of regional haze at federally mandated Class I areas.

5 Regional Haze Regional haze is the impairment of visibility caused by the presence of particulate matter in the atmosphere that scatter and absorb light Visibility is a measure of the clearness of the atmosphere and can be expressed in terms of: Light Extinction (b ext ) b ext (Mm -1 ) = 3*f(RH)*[SO 4 ] + 3*f(RH)*[NO 3 ] + 4*[ORG] + 10*[EC] + 1*[Soils] + 0.6*[PMC] + b rayleigh b rayleigh = 10 Mm -1 Deciview dv=10*ln(b ext /b rayleigh )

6 Regional Haze Rule Objectives of Regional Haze Rule Achieve natural (no man-made impairment) visibility conditions at federal mandated Class I areas by 2064 for worst 20% visibility days No worsening in visibility at Class I areas for best 20% visibility days First progress SIPs due December, 2007 demonstrating reasonable progress toward natural conditions between and 2018

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8 b ext on 20% Haziest Days (2002)

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11 Sources of RPO Modeling Information for this Presentation RPO Modeling Contacts RPO Modeling Contractors RPO Websites Inter-RPO Technical Meetings Inter-RPO Modeling Workgroup Monthly Conference Calls

12 VISTAS

13 VISTAS Visibility Improvement State and Tribal Association of the Southeast (VISTAS) SESARM Coordinator: Pat Brewer Workgroup Chair: Sheila Holman (NC) Technical Lead for Modeling: Jim Boylan (GA) Contractors: ENVIRON, UCR, Alpine Geophysics, Georgia Tech Modeling Advisor: Dr. Ivar Tombach Modeling Approach 2002 annual at 36 and 12 km grids MM5 Meteorology (BAMS) and SMOKE Emissions CMAQ (primary model) and CAMx (corroborative model)

14 VISTAS 36 km Grid

15 VISTAS 12 km Grid

16 VISTAS Performance (SO4) SO4 (actual) 200 Fractional Bias (%) IMPROVE CASTNET STN SEARCH SEARCH_H (+) Goal (-) Goal (+) Criteria (-) Criteria -200 Average Concentration (ug/m3)

17 VISTAS Performance (NO3) NO3 (actual) IMPROVE Fractional Bias (%) CASTNET STN SEARCH SEARCH_H (+) Goal (-) Goal (+) Criteria -150 (-) Criteria -200 Average Concentration (ug/m3)

18 VISTAS Performance (OC) OC (typical 36) Fractional Bias (%) IMPROVE STN SEARCH (+) Goal (-) Goal (+) Criteria (-) Criteria Average Concentration (ug/m3)

19 VISTAS Schedule Completed initial 2002 annual modeling (36 and 12 km) MM5, SMOKE, CMAQ Actual (Performance) and Typical (RRFs) Emissions Completed initial 2018 OTW annual modeling (36 km) 2018 OTB and OTW episodic emission sensitivities (12 km) Working on revised 2002 and 2018 SMOKE emissions Will have revised 2002 CMAQ modeling and revised 2018 OTW modeling (revised IPM) done by midsummer Completed 2009 SMOKE modeling (36 and 12 km), CMAQ modeling by mid June 2009 OTW episodic emission sensitivities (12 km)

20 DOSO Reasonable Progress 40 Dolly Sods Baseline = 27.7 dv Goal = 23.5 dv * 2018 OTWc = 21.4 dv Deciviews Natural Background (EPA Default) 2018 OTWc modeling shows 150% of 2018 goal (23.5 dv)

21 2018 OTWc for Worst 20% Days Percent Reduction Achieved 150% 100% 50% 0% Southern Appalachian Sites (1B) DOSO LIGO SHEN GRSM JARI COHU SIPS MACA

22 2018 OTWc for Worst 20% Days Percent Reduction Achieved 150% 100% 50% 0% Coastal Sites (1B) SAMA CHAS EVER SWAN ROMA OKEF

23 2018 OTWc Annual Reasonable Progress..... Preliminary Results Likely to meet May meet Additional Analyses Needed

24 VISTAS NAAQS SIP Modeling PM2.5 Non-Attainment Areas AL, GA, KY, NC, TN, VA, WV All NAA states will use VISTAS modeling for PM2.5 modeling Annual 36 and 12 km modeling for 2002 and 2009 Some states will do additional modeling beyond VISTAS 8-Hour Ozone Non-Attainment Areas AL, GA, KY, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV Some NAA states will use VISTAS modeling for 8-hr ozone modeling Seasonal 36 and 12 km modeling for 2002 and 2009 Some states will do additional modeling beyond VISTAS Association for Southeastern Integrated Planning (ASIP) Seasonal 12 km modeling for 2008 (Basic areas)

25 Georgia NAAQS SIP Modeling Georgia PM2.5 modeling (2009) will use ALGA 12 km sub-domain VISTAS MM5 and SMOKE at 12 km VISTAS 12 km for BCs Annual simulations (GA DNR) Pollutant and source specific sensitivities (GA DNR) Atlanta 8-hour ozone modeling (2009) will use GA 4 km sub-domain MM5 and SMOKE at 4 km (GA DNR) Improved GA mobile source emissions ALGA 12 km for BCs Modeling entire ozone season (05/20/02 09/20/02) Pollutant and source specific sensitivities (GA DNR)

26 VISTAS 12 km ALGA 12 km GA 4 km

27 MRPO

28 MRPO Midwest Regional Planning Organization (MRPO) LADCO Most modeling work done in-house Model (photochemical and emissions) development and emission inventory development contracted out Modeling Approach 2001, 2002, and 2003 annual at 36 km 2002 primary year for PM2.5 and visibility MM5 Meteorology and EMS-2004 Emissions (switching to CONCEPT over the next 2 years) CAMx (primary model); some comparative runs done with CMAQ

29 MRPO 36 km Modeling Domain 24-hour speciated monitor locations used for MPE

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31 MRPO Schedule 2002 Base I Emissions (2002 CEER, CMU Ammonia) CAMx Modeling Base Year is 2002 Have 2001 and 2003 as additional options 4 Different Future Years 2018 for Haze (completed) 2008, 2012 for Ozone 2009 for Ozone and PM2.5 (36 km completed) 3 Variations of Future Year Scenarios on the books controls on the way controls on the way + additional controls in MRPO MRPO does not plan to perform 12 km modeling for PM, but will perform 12 km modeling for ozone.

32 MRPO NAAQS SIP Modeling PM2.5 and Ozone Non-Attainment Areas IL, IN, MI, OH, WI RPO Modeling is an end point for PM2.5 and ozone NAAQS SIPs rather than a starting point States will submit MRPO modeling to support PM/Haze/Ozone SIPs MRPO taking a multi-pollutant approach and developing ozone SIP level inventories and States working on ozone and PM controls States currently using MRPO modeling to support changes in county attainment status (ozone bump-down) and to assess air quality impacts of local emission reduction programs States using RPO modeling with CAMx/OSAT to assist in determining local/regional culpability

33 State/RPO Roles in SIP Modeling MRPO and States perform modeling runs; no modeling runs or model input preparation are contracted out The States can take RPO modeling and do local scale assessments because they are active participants in doing model runs and dedicate employees to the RPO process RPO provides States with technical support for modeling projects (technical support will continue past SIP submittal next year) MRPO assists States with system administration and computer hardware needs

34 MRPO 12 km Modeling Domain

35 MRPO Emission Improvements to Support Ozone SIP Improved mobile source traffic count data Improved nonroad activity data Improved chemical speciation (especially local fuels based speciation) Improved nonroad temporalization Improved area temporalization Significant agricultural equipment NOX modifications (mass and temporal) Travel demand model link based data Analysis of traffic count data to reflect daily and hourly diesel truck traffic Inclusion of complex EGU temporal model evaluation and strategy development

36 WRAP

37 WRAP Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) Modeling Chairs: John Vimont, Mary Uhl, Kevin Briggs Coordinator: Tom Moore Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Contractors: ENVIRON, UCR, UNC/CEP Developed wind blown dust and NH3 landuse emission models Modeling Approach: 2002 annual at 36 and 12 km grids MM5 Meteorology and SMOKE Emissions CMAQ andcamxmodels

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39 WRAP Performance (IMPROVE) IMPROVE PG&PC Fractional Bias (%) Average Concentration (ug/m3) SO4 NO3 OC EC (+) Goal (-) Goal (+) Criteria (-) Criteria

40 WRAP Performance (IMPROVE) IMPROVE PG&PC Fractional Bias (%) Average Concentration (ug/m3) SOIL CM PM25 PM10 (+) Goal (-) Goal (+) Criteria (-) Criteria

41 WRAP Schedule Completed revised 2002 (36 & 12 km) MM5 modeling Working on revised 2002 SMOKE emissions Will have revised 2002 CMAQ and CAMx modeling done in late summer Plan to use CAMx with PSAT for PM source apportionment Plan to have revised 2018 base modeling done by end of the year

42 WRAP NAAQS SIP Modeling PM2.5 Non-Attainment Areas California and Libby, MT (wood smoke?) California ARB performing CA NAAQS SIP Modeling 8-Hour Ozone Non-Attainment Areas California, Phoenix (AZ), Las Vegas (NV), and Denver (CO) Some NAA and EAC areas using 2002 MM5 and SMOKE files (36 and 12 km) Also, 4 Corners Region WRAP does not plan to perform any 2008/2009 modeling 2008 and 1013 mobile source modeling

43 CENRAP

44 CENRAP Central States Regional Air Partnership (CENRAP) CenSARA Modeling Co-Chairs: Lee Warden (ODEQ) and Calvin Ku (MDNR) Emissions and Air Quality Modeling Contractors: ENVIRON, UCR, E.H. Pechan, UNC/CEP, STI Modeling Advisor: Dr. Tom Tesche Modeling Approach: 2002 at 36 km (annual) and 12 km (episodic) MM5 Meteorology (Iowa DNR) and SMOKE Emissions CMAQ and CAMx Models

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46 CENRAP Performance (IMPROVE) Sulfate Nitrate Blue: WRAP Pre02d; Red: CENRAP CMAQ BaseA

47 CENRAP Performance (IMPROVE) OC EC Blue: WRAP Pre02d; Red: CENRAP CMAQ BaseA

48 CENRAP Schedule Completed initial 2002 annual modeling (36 km) MM5, SMOKE, CMAQ, and CAMx Plan to do some episodic 12 km modeling Working on revised 2002 SMOKE emissions Will have revised 2002 CMAQ and CAMx modeling done in September Plan to have revised 2018 base modeling done by end of the year (November)

49 CENRAP NAAQS SIP Modeling PM2.5 Non-Attainment Areas St. Louis (MO) 8-Hour Ozone Non-Attainment Areas Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri Some states using RPO model input files CENRAP model results provide direction for model and science options selection for PM & Ozone modeling CENRAP does not plan to perform any 2008/2009 modeling

50 St. Louis PM Modeling Emission Inputs Modify point, area, and non-road model inputs developed by CENRAP and other RPOs (apply inventory improvements) Environ/Alpine creating 2002 mobile and biogenic emissions Meteorological Inputs Missouri DNR, Illinois EPA, Oklahoma DEQ, CENRAP, and Ameren running annual 2002 MM5 at 12 km. Air Quality Modeling CMAQ and CAMx Performance evaluation, sensitivity analysis, and control strategies.

51 4km Phot. Grid 12km Phot. Grid 36km Phot Grid MM5 36km Domain

52 MANE-VU

53 MANE-VU Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibility Union (MANE-VU) NESCAUM, MARAMA, OTC Modeling conducted in-house by NESCAUM Contacts: Gary Kleiman and Shan He Modeling Approach 2002 annual at 36 and 12 km grids MM5 Meteorology (UMD) and SMOKE Emissions CMAQ and REMSAD

54 CMAQ & REMSAD Grids 36 km Grid 12 km Grid

55 REMSAD: Tagging Results Percent CONTRIBUTION OF RPO TO PM SO4 IN CLASS I AREAS Surface + MANE-VU LADCO VISTAS CenRAP Esurface Canada + Boundary Brigantine, NJ Acadia, ME Lye Brook, VT Shenandoah, VA

56 MANE-VU Schedule Completed 2002 Emission Inventory (MARAMA) and 2002 annual MM5 modeling (UMD) Will have 2002 annual air quality modeling done in spring 2005 Plan to have 2018 and 2009 modeling done by September 2005 Plan to have control strategy modeling done by end of the year

57 MANE-VU NAAQS SIP Modeling PM2.5 Non-Attainment Areas NY, NJ, CT, PA, DC, MD, DE States will use MANE-VU modeling as starting point for PM2.5 modeling Annual 36 and 12 km modeling for 2002 and Hour Ozone Non-Attainment Areas NY, NJ, CT, PA, DC, MD, DE, MA, RI, CT, NH, ME Some states will use MANE-VU modeling as starting point for 8-hr ozone modeling OTC modeling committee is coordinating 8-hour ozone modeling as a regional activity

58 Questions?