TRANSPORTATION SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS. Panos D. Prevedouros, PhD Professor of Transportation Department of Civil Engineering

Transcription

1 TRANSPORTATION SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS Panos D. Prevedouros, PhD Professor of Transportation Department of Civil Engineering Presented at Korea University, Seoul, South Korea, April 27, 2012

2 In 1972, a team of experts from MIT presented a groundbreaking report called The Limits to Growth In 2012 Australian physicist and sustainability analyst Graham Turner updated it with data from 1970 to 2000

3 Outline i. SUSTAINABILITY ii. iii. iv. FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS CASE STUDY v. POLICY & DM vi. CONCLUSION

4 Sustainability Sustainability can be applied to any system, to describe the maintenance of a balance within the system Integrates Environment, Economy, Energy, Society World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED): Sustainability is a rate of development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs

5 Sustainability How? Transportation impacts on: Environment Society Economy Incorporation of sustainability into transportation planning 1. Transportation system sustainability definition 2. Standard method for assessing transportation systems Not Available

6 Sustainability and LCA Life Cycle Models Cradle to Grave Well to Pump Vehicle Cycle Fuel Cycle

7 The Sustainability Framework (1/3) The generic structure components of a transportation system and the restrictions The 7 goals seek to: 1. Minimize environmental impact The 7 dimensions: 1. Environment 2. Maximize technology performance to help people meet their needs 3. Minimize energy consumption 4. Maximize and support a vibrant economy 5. Maximize users satisfaction 6. Comply with legal framework 7. Comply with local restrictions of each place 2. Technology 3. Energy 4. Economy 5. Users (and other stakeholders) 6. Legal framework 7. Local restrictions

8 The Sustainability Framework (2/3) Transportation mode - Component Sustainability dimension - Component Environment Technology Energy Economy Users Sustainability Decomposition Prism Legal Framework Local Restrictions

9 Sustainability Prism All Set Human activities Important Limits of stakeholders set made within & Existing Feasibility legislation by other environmental System s components complex layers of constrains a community output limits control participation Sustainable Cultural user s heritage choice technology Short and long economy Archeological sites term impacts Needs are not met Economy Energy Technology Environment Users

10 Sample Applications Transport systems Transport modes Other applications Hydroelectric, coal, nuclear plants Wind, solar power generation Construction Waste treatment Other infrastructure Focus Urban transportation modes

11 The Sustainability Framework (3/3) Adjusted to assess sustainability in transportation Urban transportation mode System operator Traveler Components Attributes Components Infrastructure Vehicle Different technologies and fuel types Vehicle Infrastructure Construction Manufacture Fuel Operation Maintenance

12 Sustainability Indicators (1/2) From literature developed indicators for sustainable transportation assessment grouped under 4 sustainability dimensions: 1. Transportation system performance 2. Environment 3. Society 4. Economy These sustainability dimensions are captured by the sustainable transportation goals described in the two fundamental definitions on sustainable transportation provided by the WCED (1987) and the (ECMT 2001)

13 Environment Technology Energy Economy Users Legal Framework Local Restrictions Objectives E 1 E i Objectives T 1 T i Objectives EN 1 EN i Objectives EC 1 EC i Objectives U 1 U i Objectives F 1 F i Objectives R 1 R i Indicators E 1 E j Indicators T 1 T j Indicators EN 1 EN j Indicators EC 1 EC j Indicators U 1 U j Indicators F 1 F j Indicators R 1 R j Environment Sustainability Index Technology Sustainability Index Energy Sustainability Index Economy Sustainability Index Users Sustainability Index Legal Framework Sustainability Index Local Restrictions Sustainability Index Overall Sustainability Index

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15 Assumptions All vehicles use the same infrastructure Indicators focus on the component vehicle, and 5 sustainability dimensions: 1. Environment 2. Technology 3. Energy 4. Economy 5. Users The remaining two dimensions (legal framework and local restrictions) are imposed by communities and they are applicable only to the deployment of specific transportation projects

16 Transportation Vehicles 1. Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle or ICEV (2010 Toyota Camry LE) 2. Hybrid Electric Vehicle or HEV (2010 Toyota Prius III) 3. Fuel Cell Vehicle or FCV (2009 Honda Clarity FCX) 4. Electric Vehicle or EV (2011 Nissan Leaf) 5. Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle or PHEV (2011 Chevrolet Volt) 6. Gasoline Pickup Truck or GPT (2010 Ford F-150 base) 7. Gasoline Sports Utility Vehicle or GSUV (2010 Ford Explorer Base) 8. Diesel Bus or DB (New Flyer 40 Restyled) 9. Bus Rapid Transit or BRT (New Flyer 60 Advanced Style BRT) 10. Car-sharing or CS program with ICEV (2010 Toyota Camry LE) 11. Car-sharing or CS program with HEV (2010 Toyota Prius III)

17 Vehicle Characteristics ICEV HEV FCV EV PHEV GPT GSUV DB BRT CS CS Camry Prius Clarity Leaf Volt F-150 Explorer New flyer New flyer Camry Prius Weight Lbs 3,307 3,042 3,582 3,500 3,781 5,319 4,509 26,000 49,000 3,307 3,042 Average occupancy passengers Average lifetime years Average annual miles miles 11,300 11,300 11,300 11,300 11,300 11,300 11,300 41,667 41,667 18,000 18,000 Lifetime miles miles 119, , , , , , , , ,000 36,000 36,000 Cost to buy (MSRP) $ US dollars $22,225 $23,050 $48,850 $32,780 $40,000 $22,060 $28,190 $319,709 $550,000 $22,225 $23,050 Fuel Price (Jan W.Coast) $ per U.S. gallon $2.85 $2.85 $4.90* $0.16** $2.85 $2.85 $2.85 $2.94 $2.94 $2.85 $2.85 Note: (*) per kg, (**) per kwh Due to the variable character of the proposed indicators, data for each vehicle is found from different sources

18 Life Cycle Models Emissions and Energy V e h i c l e Manufacturing Fueling Operation Maintenance GREET 2.7 GREET 1.7 MOBILE 6.2 GREET 1.7 EIO-LCA GREET 2.7 EIO-LCA Manufacture Feedstock Fuel Run, Start, Tire, Brake, Idle, Insurance, License, Registration, Taxes Maintain Dispose Recycle

19 Environment Environment Sustainability Dimension Goal Objective Indicator Carbon Dioxide - CO 2 Minimize global warming Methane - CH 4 N 2 O Minimize environmental impact Minimize air pollution GHG Volatile Organic Compound Carbon Monoxide - CO Nitrogen Oxides - NO x Particle Matter - PM 10 Sulphur Oxides - SO x Minimize noise Noise Minimize externalities on living humans and species Health

20 Technology Technology Sustainability Dimension Goal Objective Indicator Vehicle lifetime Maximize vehicle lifetime Upgrade potential Maximize used resources Capacity Fuel frequency Maximize technology performance to help people meet their needs Minimize time losses Minimize land consumption Maintenance frequency Vehicle storage Maximize supply Supply Maximize mode choices for all users Feasibility of use by social excluded groups Readiness Maximize vehicle performance Engine power

21 Energy Energy Sustainability Dimension Goal Objective Indicator Manufacturing energy Minimize energy consumption Minimize energy consumption Fueling energy Operation energy Maintenance energy

22 ICEV HEV FCV EV PHEV GPT GSUV DB BRT CS-Camry CS-Prius Energy (Mj/VMT) Energy Consumpion per VMT Maintenance Operation Fueling Manufacture

23 ICEV HEV FCV EV PHEV GPT GSUV DB BRT CS-Camry CS-Prius Energy (Mj/PMT) Energy Consumpion per PMT Maintenance Operation Fueling Manufacture

24 Economy Economy Sustainability Dimension Goal Objective Indicator Cost Reduce cost requirements Property damage Minimize parking requirements Parking cost Maximize and support a vibrant economy Minimize costs for the community Safety cost Minimize governmental support Subsidy Promote welfare Job opportunities

25 Users Users Sustainability Dimension Goal Objective Indicator Mobility Demand Maximize users satisfaction Maximize transportation performance Improve accessibility Maximize user comfort Global availability Reasonable availability Delay Reliability Safety Equity of access Leg room Cargo space Seated probability Fueling opportunities

26 Urban Mode Sustainability Scores Sustainability Dimensions ICEV HEV FCV EV PHEV GPT GSUV DB BRT CS CS Camry Prius Clarity Leaf Volt F-150 Explorer New flyer New flyer Camry Prius Environment Technology Energy Economy Users Overall Sustainability Index 40.1% 48.8% 50.6% 46.8% 48.5% 23.4% 41.2% 51.9% 63.0% 66.9% 69.3% Ranking

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28 Case Study Uses our experimental SusTainability RAnking TOol (STRATO) in transportation planning STRATO reveals the tradeoffs that occur from transportation policies and planning The results are aggregated to assess the transport sustainability of 3 metropolitan areas by taking into account their transportation characteristics

29 Methodology Atlanta, Chicago, and a simulated metropolitan area called OPTIMUS (Optimal Transportation Indicators for Modeling Urban Sustainability) OPTIMUS combines optimal and average characteristics from U.S. metropolitan areas The specific metropolitan areas of Atlanta and Chicago were selected due to the availability of recent trip data Data Regional household travel surveys Sustainability indicators are weighted per area passenger miles traveled (PMT) to eliminate inconsistencies due to different population sizes 29

30 Input Data 1. Vehicle fuel price 2. Vehicle parking cost 3. Vehicle ownership ratio 4. Number of passengers per metropolitan area 5. Mode split by trip 6. Avg. miles per trip per vehicle type 7. Cost to purchase vehicle 8. Public transit fare 9. Insurance cost per vehicle type 10. Number of fueling stations available 11. Vehicle occupancy per vehicle OPTIMUS Assumptions 1. Lowest fuel cost 2. Lowest electricity cost 3. Lowest insurance cost 4. Average parking cost 5. Average vehicle ownership ratio 6. Average metropolitan area size 7. Average trips per passenger 8. Average miles per trip 9. Maximum vehicle occupancy 10. Optimal fleet mix 11. Highest public transit use

31 STRATO s Sustainability Indices Index Atlanta Chicago OPTIMUS Environment Technology Energy Economy Users Overall Sustainability

32 STRATO s Sustainability Scores Environment Users Technology Chicago Atlanta Optimus Economy Energy

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36 Business as Usual Model -- Million KWh 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 Biodiesel PV Coal Wind Geothermal Hydro-electric H-Power Biomass Petroleum 6,000 5,000 4,000 Oil usage change since 2008= -4% 3,000 2,000 1,

37 Solve-the-Problem Model -- Million KWh 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 Biodiesel PV Coal Wind Geothermal Hydroelectric H-Power Biomass Petroleum 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Oil usage change since 2008 = - 41 % 1,

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39 Panos D. Prevedouros, PhD, 2011 Transit 5.6 Drive Alone 63.8 Carpool 21.2 Rail Other 9.4 Transit 7.0 HOT BRT TeleC BikeW Transit 6.6 Drive Alone 63.0 Carpool 21.1 Other 9.3 Drive Alone 57.0 Carpool 25.0 Other %

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41 Best Quadrant WIDE spread of COST NARROW Spread of COST 2 nd Best WIDE NARROW WIDE spread of BENEFIT Best Spot HOT Lanes WIDE New Freeway Truck Only Lanes NARROW spread of BENEFIT Handi-van Service Ferry Service NARROW Japan H.S. Rail Bridge 3 rd Best WIDE NARROW Worst Quadrant WIDE NARROW WIDE City Street Re-paving Contraflow, temp. lane closures WIDE Honolulu Rail (32km) California H.S. Rail NARROW Bicycle Lanes Parking meters NARROW San Juan Rail (15km) Worst Spot LOW COST HIGH

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43 Limitations The high number of data sources and assumptions impose limitations and uncertainties STRATO s inventories for vehicles are based on built-in assumptions and parameters in GREET, MOBILE and EIO-LCA. STRATO s sustainability results rely on the characteristics of the best-selling vehicle, which represents a whole class of vehicles

44 Research Outcomes (1/2) 1. Developed a comprehensive sustainability framework with a set of indicators for the life cycle sustainability assessment of transportation vehicles 2. Organized indicators into sustainability dimensions (Environment, Technology, Energy, Economy, Users, Legal Framework and Local Restrictions) that do not cross sustainability boundaries

45 Research Outcomes (2/2) 3. Assessed transportation sustainability by disaggregating transportation modes according to vehicle population and characteristics 4. Developed STRATO, which is composed by a set of sustainability indices and a visual interface, that can be used as a planning and policy tool 5. Method is expandable to other infrastructure systems

46 Future Work Include a sensitivity analysis to reveal how changes in the assumed parameters of vehicles can change the final outcome Expand this application to cover all popular urban transportation modes such as heavy and light rail, HOT Lanes, etc. Explore additional indicators per sustainability dimension Remove indicators if their effect is uniform or marginal

47 Thank You Panos D. Prevedouros, PhD Professor of Transportation Department of Civil Engineering