From Green Gas to Liquid Fuels International Methanol Conference

Transcription

1 From Green Gas to Liquid Fuels International Methanol Conference Thea Larsen, CEO Copenhagen May

2 The Climate Challenge S U S T A I N A B L E G A S T E C H N O L O G Y The climate challenge is one of the most complex challenges the world has ever faced and now on the top of the global agenda The Paris agreement is the world's first comprehensive climate agreement: a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels. b). foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production; c) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development. Commitment to reach global peaking as soon as possible Source: The Emissions GAP Report 2015 (COP21) 2

3 EU Targets for GHG Emissions The European Commission s low-carbon economy roadmap suggests that by 2050, the EU should cut GHG emissions to 80% below 1990 levels GHG emission milestones: 2030: 40% below 1990 levels 2040: 60% below 1990 levels All sectors to contribute The transition must be Feasible Affordable Source: EU climate strategies and targets 3

4 The Transport Sector is Lagging Behind in Fighting GHG Emission Emissions from transport represent ~ 25 % of EU emissions The sector has not yet seen the same gradual decline as other sectors EU priorities: Short term Fuel efficient engines and smart transport systems Mid to long term Hybrid/EVs combined with biofuels and other low emission fuel alternatives 10% biofuel in 2020 Long term Low/zero-emission vehicles 4 Source: EU climate strategies and targets

5 Passenger and Freight Traffic are Increasing Road traffic has the largest share of transport and is the biggest GHG emitter Accounts for more than 70% of EU transport emissions (2014) Air (passenger) and sea (freight) traffic is substantial and growing IATA Forecasts Global Passenger Demand to Double Over 20 Years IHS Global Insight is forecasting that the global container shipping volume will increase by 3.5 percent in 2016 Electric vehicles can potentially cover most passenger road traffic needs Other solutions must be pursued for heavy duty, aviation and maritime Source: EC, IATA, IHS 5

6 Biofuels a Growing Market Extensive use of biofuels is a prerequisite if EU is to live up to its own targets => CAGR ~ 5% projected Key considerations for biofuel products Availability of feedstock/raw material Cost and efficiency of conversion (scale) Market price for the resulting product Other factors Policies and regulatory framework Fuel specifications and approvals Engine development path Distribution infrastructure Avoid food-for-fuel technologies Global biofuel market valued at $168 in 2016 Global biofuel market to grow to $246bn by Source: Biofuels International

7 Is Bio-methanol a Winning Fuel? Methanol used as chemical feedstock or petrol blend component is produced in industrial scale, mainly synthesized from natural gas M has the advantage that it can used as a blending component, be processed to additives like DME or used directly as a fuel A wide range of biomass feedstock, waste and green gas can be applied for production of bio-methanol Controlling the feedstock and producing in scale is crucial Bio-M production cost is times higher than the cost of NG based M Increased demand for bio-methanol for transport purposes - as it is the case for other green fuels is most likely to come from A policy driven market demand R & D/innovation driving much lower production cost, in combination with increasing cost of fossil energy Competitiveness vis-à-vis other biofuels 7 Global methanol market to grow to $54bn by 2021 CAGR > 12 % Source: Biofuels International, Globe Newswire, IRENA

8 Biogas as Feedstock for Bio-methanol? Production of biogas and biomethane is being professionalized increased private and public investments in state-of-the-art sites with critical mass production as demand is increasing Tests and innovative efforts regarding new non-food feedstock for the biogas production are carried out on producing sites Purification and methanation processes are refined to optimize output and cut production costs Bio-methanol production must be competitive with other green fuels Can the fast development in the biogas sector be beneficial for achieving this goal? 8

9 Biomethane has the Lowest Fuel Cost in 2030 Biomethane is a well-know green fuel with substantial potential in the transport sector In 2016, a Danish study: evaluated if gaseous or liquid biofuels for heavy transport are the most attractive way for a Danish transport sector independent of fossil fuels concluded that biomethane outperforms liquid biofuels and has the lowest fuel price (2030) (not evaluated if biomethane is best used as gaseous fuel or processed to methanol) Fuel production costs 2030, various technologies Source: EA Energy analyses and SDU 9

10 Biomethane Flows in the (Natural) Gas Grid The gas grid content is greening and nat. gas is blended with: Upgraded/cleaned biogas from manure and other waste products Green gas from wind power and electrolysis process Synthetic methane from gasified biomass The gas grid provides low-cost distribution with storage facilities => Efficient and flexible use of gas Content in the Danish Gas Grid = 10% biomethane (end of 2017) Source: HMN Naturgas 10

11 Why Use Biomethane from the Gas Grid? Stable and flexible delivery of biomethane made from 2G green feedstock Distributed through low-cost, reliable, high-volume cross- European distribution infrastructure, already in place => Efficient and flexible use Low fuel costs acc. to recent study Other energy services can be provided to and from an integrated energy system => optimization of full production cycle Source: EBTP 11

12 The Gas Grid as Backbone for Biofuel Products Source: Energinet

13 How to Fulfil Expectations Product research and innovation Test feedstock and raw materials Improve conversion and cleaning processes Develop and test engines for new fuel mixes Carry out demos and user tests Regulatory framework Implement incentives and tax benefits Adapt common fuel specs and align approvals Actions on EU, country and global levels Need for public and private sector cooperation Short-term and long-term to-do lists 13

14 Conclusion: Successful transition requires Innovation and Investments To deliver on the Paris Agreement, we need biofuels Biogas and biomethane are available, flexible and cheap, and can be used as raw material for bio-methanol - or directly as green fuel No single fuel can solve the transport challenge Green visions =>green solutions, when new technologies are competitive and live up to user expectations on price, comfort etc. Source: Biofuelstp 14

15 is a specialized supplier of consultancy, measurements, technology assessment and other knowledge intensive services in the field of gas and energy. DGC s laboratory is accredited (EN 17025) to test gas appliances and to make gas analysis, and in our affiliated Test Centre for Green Gases we analyze biogas, hydrogen and other green gases. DGC is a public limited company, established in 1988 by the Danish gas sector to undertake advisory services and development assignments. Today, DGC holds a focus on gas utilization, production of green gases and on gas used in conjunction with other forms of energy 15

16 Thank you for your attention 16