Climate Change: An Adaptation & Mitigation Agenda for Indian Cities

Transcription

1 Climate Change: An Adaptation & Mitigation Agenda for Indian Cities Aromar Revi New Delhi 17 th August 2010

2 Why Cities are central to the Climate Change Agenda

3 Ecological Footprint vs. HDI (1975) Sustainable Development The holy grail of national Sustainable Development a HDI of ~ 0.9 & Ecological Footprint of 1 global Ha/per capita

4 Future History - Sustainability Transitions: 2005 Sustainable Developmen t Can China traverse the environmental Kuznets curve; Germany & USA converge without serious Human Development decline India tunnel through ; or will there be serious international resource conflict?

5 The Sustainability transition will be fought & won in Asian cities Early 21 st century tunnelling through will be fought and won in Asian and emerging economy cities and around new metabolisms, economies and sufficiencies

6 Urban Settlements Population (in millions) Delhi (8.2) Urban Population Growth Kolkata (10.9) Population Size (millions) < > 5 Mumbai (12.3) Chennai (5.3) Source: Census of India, UN, 2007 IIHS analysis, Large Urban Settlement Growth

7 Urban Settlements Population (in millions) Delhi (12.4) Urban Population Growth Kolkata (13.1) Population Size (millions) < > 5 Mumbai (16.1) Bangalore (5.6) Hyderabad (5.4) Chennai (6.6) Source: Census of India, UN, 2007 IIHS analysis, Large Urban Settlement Growth

8 Indian settlement structure (2001): ~ 5,000 urban areas ~5,50,000 villages

9 Urban Settlements Population (in millions) Delhi (16.9) Urban Population Growth Ahmedabad (5.7) Kolkata (15.5) Population Size (millions) < > 5 Mumbai (20) Pune (5.0) Bangalore (7.2) Hyderabad (6.7) Chennai (7.5) Source: Census of India, UN, 2007 IIHS analysis, Large Urban Settlement Growth

10 Urban Settlements Population (in millions) Delhi (20.4) Urban Population Growth Ahmedabad (5.7) Surat (5.1) Kolkata (18.6) Population Size (millions) < > 5 Mumbai (23.9) Pune (6.1) Bangalore (8.8) Hyderabad (8.2) Chennai (9.1) Source: Census of India, UN, 2007 IIHS analysis, Large Urban Settlement Growth

11 Urban Settlements Population (in millions) Delhi (24.4) Kanpur (5.1) Urban Population Growth Ahmedabad (8.5) Surat (6.3) Kolkata (22.3) Population Size (millions) < > 5 Mumbai (28.6) Pune (7.4) Bangalore (10.6) Hyderabad (9.9) Chennai (11.1) Source: Census of India, UN, 2007 IIHS analysis, Large Urban Settlement Growth

12 Framing Climate Variability & Change

13 Hazard Risk: a Spatio-Temporal & Exposure Typology

14 Likelihood & Severity of Global Economic Losses (2007) Source: WEF, 2007, Global Risks Report Multiple $500 billion+ economic shocks are increasingly (> 10%) probable

15 There is Only One Earth and its in a small corner of the known Universe (Gagarin, Armstrong et. al. 1960s)

16 This earth-system is largely closed (Daly et. al., 1972)

17 Ecological Footprint (billion 2003 gha) The Challenge: Overshoot of Global Ecological Footprint over Biocapacity ( ) (billion global Ha.) Growing Ecological Deficit Nuclear Global Biocapacity CO 2 from fossil fuels 8 'Industrial & knowledge metabolism' 'Biomass metabolism' Settlements Fishing Forests Grazing Cropland Time (years) Cropland Grazing Forests Fishing Settlements CO2 from fossil fuels Nuclear Source: Revi analysis, 2007; WWF, 2006 The industrial and the knowledge economies are key drivers of global ecological deficit

18 Atmospheric CO2 Concentration (PPM) Global Climate Change: An Inconvenient Overshoot IFs Scenario Changes in Global CO2 Concentration (PPM) India, China & Japan had the largest urban populations in the world till the early 19 th century Years Base Markets First Policy First Security First Sustainability Climate change emerges as a serious threat as all Global scenarios overshoot targets

19 The Challenge of the 21 st century Sustainability Transition Present consumption requires ~2.0 worlds 21 st century Population growth needs 1.5+ worlds Ending poverty at present throughput ~2.0 worlds Available only One World The Sustainability traverse challenge will be substantially played out in Asia s cities

20 Resources A Narrowing Global Window of Opportunity Window of Opportunity 1970 Years A narrowing window of opportunity beyond which irreversible changes will take place

21 Reality is more complex: punctuated by multiple Shocks El Nino Flood Drought Desertification Design for Resilience Currency crisis Pandemic Asian growth Oil peak We need to design our economic and urban systems for both performance & resilience

22 A time of Crisis.. 危機危機...a turning point for structural change?

23 Indian urbanisation: an outlier?

24 Percentage Decadal Growth Rate India: Steady but Decelerating Urban growth since the 1980s 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% BUT period of urban growth deceleration 5% 0% Time % Urbanisation Urban CAGR Source: Census of India, 2001 India has bucked a global trend, with decelerating urban growth since the 1980s

25 Proportion of GDP (at current prices) India s changing economic structure ( ) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Expansion of the services sector share in output with dual expansion of services exports and the urban informal sector Slow expansion of secondary sector output share, no growth in formal employment Sharp Primary sector decline in output share, but little decline in employment share 0% Intercensus period Primary Secondary Tertiary The structure of the Indian economy has changed slowly away from agriculture towards services but the livelihood structure has been very slow to change

26 % share of annual Growth India: Long-range Sectoral Contributions to Growth Sectoral share of GDP growth (at constant prices) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Largely Urban: Secondary & Tertiary sectors 30% 20% 10% 0% Largely Rural: Primary sectors Source: TARU analysis, 2006 based on Sivasubramonian, 2000, 2004, NAS, Primary sectors Secondary & Tertiary sectors Residential Buildings Over the 1990s, the Primary (largely rural) sectors contributed <20% to aggregate GDP growth. Urban-based economic activity made up much of the rest

27 % share of Annual Growth India: Factor Contribution to Economic Growth Share of annual growth ( ) at prices % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 'Capital' Other Factors 'Technology & Institutions' 40% 30% 20% 10% 'Land' 'Labour' 0% Source: TARU analysis, 2006 based on Sivasubramonian, 2000, 2004, NAS, 2006 Land Labour Capital Technology & Institutions Others Savings & Investment and Technology & Institutions are the primary growth drivers of the Indian economy

28 Urban Rural per capita Output Differential Grows NDP per capita ( ) (at constant prices) Per capita NDP (Rs.) 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 1: 3 ratio 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Rural Urban Urban per capita NDP was about thrice the rural per capita NDP in Yet nearly 70% of the population continues to live in rural India

29 Sectoral Drivers of India s Urban Economy Trade, Hotels & Restaurant Other Services 87, ,803 Moderate employment growth Banking & Insurance 87,714 Public Administration & Defence Registered Manufacturing 85,725 77,111 Stagnant or declining employment growth Real Estate 74,747 Transport,Storage & Communication Construction 74,817 58,023 Moderate employment growth Unregistered Manufacturing 42,389 Agriculture 24,387 Mining & Quarrying Elect. Gas & Water Supply Fishing Low employment growth Forestry & Logging Urban Rural - 100, , , ,000 NDP 2000 (Rs. crore) Source: TARU analysis, 2006, NAS, 2006 Trade & part of Other Services (e.g. IT/ITES) are key growth drivers that also create steady jobs. Core urban economic sectors (manufacturing, finance, Govt.) have stagnant or declining employment growth

30 Why India may be better prepared to address Climate variability than other State parties?

31 Most Climate Variability & Change Risks are extensions of historical risks Most Climate Variability & Change Risks in South Asia are an extension of historical risks Drought Flooding Cyclonic storms & surge Heat waves Health risks. Except for Glacial melt & SLR The fundamental future shift will be in Frequency & Intensity But both Community responses Public interventions Have been in place for over a century Challenge is to strengthen existing coping and response mechanisms to protect the most vulnerable first

32 Vulnerability is the key Risk Driver in India Vulnerability is the key Risk Driver in India not Hazard Risk Poverty: consumption and asset Lack of access to basic services Low levels and increasing differentials in Human Development Asymmetric access to entitlements Increasing Inequality driven by growth Irrational and inequitable spatial and regional distribution This is true for Climate variability & Change Hence raising the floor is the first and non-negotiable priority Earlier and stronger emphasis on adaptation (that we will have to undertake)

33 India s settlement structure better suited to adaptation & mitigation ~ 5,00 urban areas and ~ 0.5 million rural settlements in 2001 the opportunity for decentralised production and consumption systems and economic structure

34 India will be a consumption driven economy for a long while India will be a consumption driven economy for a long while Private State Corporate The primary site of this consumption is cities This will only increase with urbanisation and growth Modifying urban metabolism is therefore a critical priority via Appropriate investments and modes of production (technology) Incentives towards Systems Efficiency Spatial consolidation Leveraging decentralised Economies of Scope Promoting Sufficiency

35 Where will the fulcrum of sufficiency change lie?

36 Addressing Climate Variability & Change

37 Core Strategy Joining up four Agendas: Urban, economic & infrastructure development Poverty and Livelihood development Disaster Risk Reduction Climate Adaptation & Mitigation Limited incremental resource requirement Many programmes in place e.g. JNNURM, NCRMP Convergence and redirection easier said than done

38 Focus: the most Vulnerable Slum, squatter and migrant populations in informal settlements Industrial and informal service sector workers in risky occupations Traditional and informal housing Industrial units Lifeline infrastructure and services Ecosystems and the natural environment

39 Policy Instruments to address Urban Climate Variability Multi-hazard, multi-actor and multi-level framework National City Working across public, private & community Strengthening Community & Household Resilience Building Institutional capacity and training at scale Strengthening regional & rural-urban linkages Quick-wins around co-benefit focussed interventions New construction and development to Climate risk-resistant and mitigation standards Retrofitting and strengthening buildings Lifeline infrastructure development and strengthening Hazard modification when all other measures fail Relocation and rehabilitation as a last fallback option

40 Bringing the Adaptation & Mitigation Agendas together

41 Four Transformative Challenges Transformation of exploitative and an increasingly unsustainable agrarian and Biomass-based economy to become more equitable, productive, eco-efficient and resilient (Mollison 1990) Transformation of industrial ecologies from linear source to sink processes to resource-conserving cyclic processes with dramatically lower environmental impacts (Hawken et. al. 1999). Reversal of the livelihood shift from industrial employment back to sustainable ecological services (e.g. sustainable agriculture, ecosystem services management and recycling) (Revi. et. al. 2006) Within the Knowledge Economy spreading the access to and benefits further along with a greater emphasis on dematerialization, lifestyle choices and embracing more community-oriented initiatives (Revi et. al. 2006)

42 Ten Drivers of Urban Metabolic Transformation - I 1. The Solid-Liquid-Gas Energy (decarbonisation) Transition Biomass Coal Oil Methane Renewables? 2. The ECE-ICE-Hydrogen Fuel Cell + PV Exergy (efficiency) Transition 3. New Organic Agriculture: biomass for food, fuels, electric power, chemicals and pharmaceuticals 4. The ICT Revolution: moving information (rather than people, energy and materials) and creating network synergies 5. The coming BT/NT (dematerialisation) Revolution

43 Ten Drivers of Urban Metabolic Transformation - I 6. Distributed Infrastructure: new intelligent distributed energy, water and mobility infrastructure that transforms rural-urban linkages and enables distributed RUrban development 7. Network institutions: in the for profit and non-profit sectors that compete on economies of scope and disintermediation spreading overheads over a multitude of activities or end-uses 8. Decentralised Governance: placing power and responsibility closer to citizens, prosumers and enabling improved public service delivery, transparency and accountability 9. Education: for self-organising workplaces and societies 10.Redefinition of Wellness, Lifestyles & Human & Social Security

44 Conclusion India s tunnelling through will be driven by urban innovation Vulnerability contributes most to overall risk in India s cities. A focus on vulnerability implies a policy shift from mitigation towards adaptation Needs to be grounded in India s institutional, sociocultural and political realities & enabled through a mix of policy, regulatory, fiscal and financial, institutional and mobilization instruments. Best implemented by mainstreaming climate change adaptation and mitigation into ongoing national urban renewal and hazard mitigation programmes Needs a multi-level climate adaptation framework at national, state, city and neighbourhood levels that brings together the state, private and civil society sectors. Robust pilot adaptation programmes in a few cities