MONITORING, TARGETING AND REPORTING (MT&R) FUNDAMENTALS AND APPLICATIONS IN THE COP PROGRAM. Robert Greenwald, P.Eng., MBA Prism Engineering g Ltd.

Transcription

1 MONITORING, TARGETING AND REPORTING (MT&R) FUNDAMENTALS AND APPLICATIONS IN THE COP PROGRAM Robert Greenwald, P.Eng., MBA Prism Engineering g Ltd.

2 WHAT DOES MT&R MEAN? MONITORING The regular collection of energy & driver data Analysis of data The investigation of deviations from expected performance using some performance model TARGETING The identification of the level of energy consumption which is desirable REPORTING Putting information in a form that drives action to control energy use and achieve targets 2

3 MT&R IS A method to detect abnormal changes in energy performance To trigger corrective action Necessary conditions Consumption is related to measurable driving factors or influences Abnormal use is signaled by a deviation of actual from expected consumption o I want a means of knowing when energy use has really increased and is not open to debate or being rationalized away by anecdotal analysis 3

4 MT&R: PART OF YOUR TOOLKIT! Improvement Teams Communication & Awareness New Technology Projects Energy Audits MT&R Energy Balances 4 Management Systems

5 MT&R: ESSENTIAL PROCESS Result Measure Take Action Information Analyse Data Photos: ETSU GPCS321 5

6 WHERE CAN WE DO MT&R? Simply an area of energy use A good starting point! Building Level Equipment Level Department e t Cost centre Energy account centre 6

7 GETTING STARTED IN MT&R 1. Ensure commitment and resources 2. Select energy use area Collect energy & driver data 3. Investigative analysis Learn what drives energy Develop performance models Develop targets 4. Develop reporting 5. Monitor against targets, report and drive action 6. Review results, refine, expand to other areas 7

8 CENTRAL TO MT&R IS AN ENERGY PERFORMANCE MODEL Historical consumption Static, not dynamic with drivers Key Performance Indicator (KPI) Be careful! Statistical model E = F (drivers) simple linear regression multivariate non-linear regression Simulation models may already exist for process complex 8

9 ANALYSIS TOOL KIT Basic Excel works well! Visualization Time series Scatter plots Variability Regression CUSUM Control charts Advanced Data mining i & neural nets EMIS (COp) tools that help to identify, understand, quantify and display the relationship between energy and what drives it 9

10 LET S DO SOME ANALYSIS AND ANSWER SOME QUESTIONS! How many energy saving measures have been introduced? When did each take effect? How much energy has each measure saved? Are all the energy saving measures still working? Have any breakdowns been restored? What further savings can be achieved? 10

11 WEATHER CAN BE USED TO PREDICT GAS USE For months before savings actions, Gas = 905 x HDD m Natura al Gas (m³) Four months after savings actions Gas = 580 HDD m Heating Degree Days (HDD18)

12 COMPARE ONGOING: ACTUAL VS. PREDICTED GAS USE Actual Use Predicted Use for No Action Nat tural Gas (m³ ³) Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Month 12

13 CUSUM SHOWS SUCCESS (A CUMULATIVE SUM OF ACTUAL PREDICTED) Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul (m³) Na atural Gas Slope of the CUSUM indicates the rate of savings! Total Savings!

14 TARGET (BEST HISTORICAL) Assemble historical data Visualize data (scatter plot) Develop overall relationship Plot changes in performance end to end CUSUM Determine best performance/practice Develop target relationship Estimate historical opportunity CUSUM versus best performance Develop control report 14

15 MT&R A CONTROL LOOP Summary Information Exception Reports & Budget Management Data Collection & Analysis Measure Control Information Operators & Maintenance Action Supervisors People in the (feedback) loop Energy Consuming System 15

16 REPORTING FOR ACTION Match report to action Design report around actions Procedures to guide/ensure action Ensure people understand Often requires es training Minimal extra information Frequency of feedback tune the control loop for stability 16

17 EXCEPTION REPORTING 17

18 MONTHLY REPORTING VIEW Performance Correlated to Actions! Electricity (kwh) for FDS Plant Area kwh/t Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD Actual Budget Predicted ,000,000 6,000,000 5,000, ,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, ,000,000-2,000,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Actual Budget 2-Variable CUSUM vs Modelled Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Comments/Activity 1. Oct-2004 FDS recovery system down - negatively affected fuel consumption in FDS area. 2. Line starts adjusted slightly 3. Progress being made on water use with help of CI 4. CI leads in FG Plant to identify focussed improvement opps for New Chief finding a number of operational opps for immediate and 6. LBE's very aggressive for last two months Capital Project Status: Scoping Submit Approval Install 1. Light Bat lighthing control installed in test area of plant 2. Wastewater/Biogas system initiated. New AB process approved. Existing meter identified (not in currently in EMS) that can give us CIP usage 1. DI water being commissioned 2. Shop HVAC energy recovery being installed. 18

19 WHAT S THE POTENTIAL? Depends on the situation Complexity of system Level of variability Extent of waste Ability to control Use investigative analysis As presented today Practice suggests 6% of usage in new MT&R Use MT&R to Ensure Persistence of Energy Savings 19

20 SOURCE OF SAVINGS IN MT&R Reduce Variability ion Consumpt Energy C Increase Efficiency Reduce Non-Productive Energy (waste) Factor(s) of Influence 20

21 DO WE NEED MORE METERS AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE? Typically NO, not to begin with Best to start with existing data sources and systems Expand system based on success, effectiveness and need Little victories! 21

22 WHO WHAT CREATES SAVINGS? People & Technology 23% People Only 16% Technology 3% Technology -4% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Actual Savings Source: Good Practice Guide 84 Managing and Motivating Staff to Save Energy 22

23 NRCan FACT SHEET 23

24 CASE 1 DETECTING SMALL CHANGES 24

25 HISTORICAL DATA - BOILER Steam Bunker "C" 800,000 90, ,000 80, ,000 70, , , ,000 60,000 50, ,000 30, ,000 20, ,000 Steam Bunker "C" 10, Day 25

26 VISUALIZE DATA (SCATTER PLOT) Bunker "C" 90,000 80, ,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, , , , ,000 Steam 26

27 DEVELOP RELATIONSHIP Bunker "C" 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 y = x R 2 = ,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, , , , ,000 Steam 27

28 CUSUM REVEALS PERIODS OF BEST PERFORMANCE 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.1% 01% -0.2% Need to identify best -0.2% practice leading to best performance -0.3% for periods 67-97! -0.3%

29 ESTABLISH S TARGET: BEST PERFORMANCE MODEL Bunker "C" 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 y = 0.108x R 2 = ,000 40,000 30,000 Steam Bunker "C" 20,000 10, , , , , ,000 Steam 400, ,000 Period ,000 90, , , , ,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40, ,000 20,000 Steam Bunker "C" 10, Day 0 29

30 CUSUM OF DEVIATION FROM BEST PERFORMANCE 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Best Performance Past savings opportunity for achieving best performance

31 CASE 2 IDENTIFY IMPACT OF O&M 31

32 GAS VS. HDD RELATIONSHIP: YEAR Gas (G GJ/day) GJ = 6.59 HDD R 2 = Heat DD (15C HDD/day) 32

33 GAS CUSUM: 36 MONTHS CUSUM Gas (GJ) 5, ,000-10,000 Heat recovery coil removed for maintenance -15,000-20,000 Month 33

34 TARGET CONSUMPTION BASED ON IMPROVED PERFORMANCE Gas (GJ J/day) GJ = 6.82 HDD R 2 = Heat DD (15C HDD/day) 34

35 RESULTS JUMP OUT 2,500 2,000 M Gas (GJ) CUSU 1,500 1, Impact >2000 GJ Month 35

36 CASE 3 TRACKING ENERGY SAVINGS 36

37 COMMERCIAL OFFICE BUILDING Large multi-story t office complex 3 major electrical energy saving upgrades undertaken Early 2003 Chilled water system upgrade Late 2003 Lighting retrofit April 2004 Upgrades to lighting control and HVAC controls How did we determine savings of each upgrade? 37

38 COMMERCIAL OFFICE BUILDING Electrical vs. CDD Relationship ,000 40,000 Elect (kwh h/day) 30,000 20,000 kwh/day = x CDD/day kwh/day R 2 = , Cool DD (6C CDD/day) 38

39 COMMERCIAL OFFICE BUILDING 1,000,000 Electrical CUSUM 2002, 03, 04, 05 CUSU UM Elect (kwh h) - -1,000,000-2,000,000-3,000,000-4,000, ,000,000-6,000,000 Month 39

40 COMMERCIAL OFFICE BUILDING Evidence of success Combined elec savings 5,000,000 kwh Last 12 month period (all retrofits implemented) 2,500,000 kwh or 20% of baseline consumption Evidence of Success of Distinct Projects Savings from each project isolated from total savings 40

41 CASE 4 FEEDING BACK RESULTS TO OPERATIONS STAFF 41

42 SMALL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL Night setback implemented Evidence of Seasonal Savings Gas CUSUM: Savings in Winter 03/ 04 & 04/ rence in GJ Diffe Jul-0 02 Nov-0 02 Mar-0 03 Jul-0 03 Nov-0 03 Mar-0 04 Jul-0 04 Nov-0 04 Mar Read Date 42

43 SECONDARY SCHOOL #1 Boiler replacement, building automation Evidence of Savings from Multiple Actions Gas CUSUM: Total Savings of almost 3000 GJ Diff ference in GJ Jul-02 Nov-02 Mar-03 Jul-03 Nov-03 Mar-04 Jul-04 Nov-04 Mar Read Date 43

44 SECONDARY SCHOOL #2 Lighting Retrofit Evidence of Consistent Saving Electrical CUSUM with Consistent Savings Rate Aug-01 Dec-01 Apr-02 Aug-02 Dec-02 Apr-03 Aug-03 Dec-03 Apr-04 Aug-04 Dec-04 Apr-05 Aug Difference in ekwh Read Date 44

45 STAFF RESPONSE TO MTR The graphs made it easy to determine what projects worked well and which h ones did not The guys were able to look at the graphs and discuss the reasons for good and bad trends Previously we had little idea how much we saved...now we can identify that Some guys resisted night set back and programming g changes and wanted to see the benefits in black and white. Now they can see it... and can't argue it 45

46 APPLICATIONS OF MTR IN THE COP PROGRAM 46

47 COp HOW IT WORKS helps qualified commercial buildings improve their operational efficiency assists building owners in retro-commissioning their buildings helps maintain and continually improve level of efficiency in building operations

48 COp - BENEFITS Improve understanding of building energy use Take advantage of low-cost operational measures with short paybacks Quantify electrical energy savings associated with retro- commissioning efforts Ensure the persistence of the energy savings Set and track progress towards performance targets Improve internal energy reporting Offers incentives, tools and support to help get buildings in good working Built-in in feedback to give you the information to determine whether your energy use is on target

49 COp - ELIGIBILITY commercial buildings greater than 50,000 square feet Building Energy Management system can provide documentation including mechanical and electrical schematics; control drawings; testing, adjusting and balancing reports; and operation and maintenance reports well-maintained equipment and systems no major retrofits or tenant improvements planned for the next one to two years

50 COp INVESTIGATION AND IMPLEMENTATION BC Hydro will fund the cost to conduct an audit to determine the most cost-effective ti measures audit will include the list of recommended energy efficiency measures, the implementation costs, the resulting energy e savings and the paybacks You carry out all of the recommended measures that have a simple payback of two years or less, in order to maintain your eligibility and retain the Investigation incentive Because the recommended measures are typically y low-cost or no-cost and have such short paybacks, no incentives are provided for implementation.

51 COp TRAINING AND COACHING BC Hydro will fund in-house training i for your building operations personnel in the use of the reports and the steps for continuous optimization BC Hydro will fund the cost of having the service provider visit your building every e three months for the first year

52 POST RE-COMMISSIONING: ONGOING ACTIVITIES Staying involved Encouraging continuous customer engagement resulting in persistence of savings Exception reporting as indicator of engagement (action items are followed up) Benefits of continued engagement Access to software for analysis & reporting Is my energy consumption on target? How much energy am I saving? Benchmarking / load profiles Coaching Recognition 52

53 EMIS BENEFITS IN COp PROGRAM Real Time Hourly or daily not monthly Automatic (no data entry) Demand profiling abilities Exception reporting 53

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57 WORKSHOP SUMMARY 57

58 MT&R: ESSENTIAL ELEMENTS data collection, analysis & reporting systems commitment & support $ knowledge, training and procedures 58

59 MT&R: CRITICAL ELEMENT OF A MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Organizational "Building A Management System" Technical "Taking Energy Action" Executive Buy-In Energy Champion Energy Team Commit Stakeholder Needs Management System Integration Culture Best Practices Goals & Objectives Roles & Responsibilities Resources Timelines Communication & Training Understand Plan Collect & Organize Energy Data Analyze Current Energy Use Survey Technical Situation Best Practices Detailed Energy Audit ID Technical Actions Financial Analysis Set Savings Targets Monitoring Raise Awareness Build Capacity Do It! New O&M Practices Energy Projects Review Management System Review Evaluate Monitor vs. Targets Revise Celebrate and Recognize Achievements! 59

60 WHAT MT&R ACHIEVES MT&R provides feedback on operating practices results of energy management projects, and guidance on the level of energy use that is expected These techniques can help to identify energy e savings opportunities t 60

61 BENEFITS OF CUSUM Time series graphs and regression often do not reveal the periods of best performance The CUSUM combines the regression with a time series to show the actual vs. predicted energy use over time CUSUM demonstrates the periods of changing performance in one informative view as well as the periods of best performance The performance model is not restricted to regression techniques 61

62 TO APPLY MT&R SUCCESSFULLY Too much metering can be detrimental less data may be better if it is the right data One should establish what data needs must be collected first There is a need to balance between een metering every er possible point and just have one summary meter that does not drive energy There is no one size fits all report 62

63 To establish savings need to know what the baseline is maybe there is a REASON for the higher use in some periods Data often exists in disparate systems and/or in different time intervals: Production data and energy data need to be combined Get support from the top to build MT&R into the culture of continuous improvement Frequency of feedback for control system depends on the storage mechanisms Ensure that IT programmers have a strong sense of energy relationships and requirements 63

64 SUMMARY MT&R helps manage energy use Detect changes and problems in operations Calculate l savings from projects and improved operational techniques Get people into energy information feedback loop WE CAN ONLY MANAGE WHAT WE MEASURE & WE CAN MANAGE WELL WITH MT&R!! 64

65 Thank You! Robert Greenwald, P.Eng.,MBA Prism Engineering Ltd. Burnaby, BC