Regional IEP Meeting 2nd round. Fall 2005

Transcription

1 Regional IEP Meeting 2nd round Fall 2005

2 Introduction and Agenda Why are we doing an Integrated Electricity Plan (IEP)? 15 min What has BC Hydro heard in the process? 30 min Five key questions for long-term electricity planning in BC 45 min Four broad directions for BC s energy future 45 min Your comments and inputs 30 min Map out next steps for the IEP 30 min Page 2

3 What is an Integrated Electricity Plan? A long-term plan that describes how BC Hydro will meet its customers needs for electricity Plan covers 20 years, but is updated every 2 years Ensures we meet customer electricity needs while factoring in financial, social and environmental considerations Page 3

4 Demand - Supply Balance Page 4

5 IEP Process Page 5

6 First Nations and Stakeholder Input to the 2005 IEP Dec 04 - Apr 05 First Nations Input as requested Provincial Selected Committee undertook facilitated decision analysis process Regional Information and facilitated sessions Technical Resource Options Open sessions to provide broad review of inputs to IEP process Public Website / Polling Resource Options Report Sep 05 - Nov 05 First Nations Provincial Regional Public 2005 IEP: 20-year study, 10-year Action Plan Filed with BC Utilities Commission - Public Hearing Process Page 6

7 Input - First Nations Small hydro, biomass and Power Smart most desirable Placed high value on environment - land and flooded land, and GHG emissions Cost - least important attribute Employment & economic development opportunities are important to First Nations Page 7

8 Input - Regional Kootenay/Columbia Resource Options Favoured Power Smart, small hydro, and wind Some support for Site C Support for biomass as a potential solution to fire risk and pine beetle problem (Cranbrook) Least favoured (Cranbrook)- coal, geothermal, natural gas Attributes Regional diversity (Cranbrook) Cost (Castlegar) GHG and local air emissions Land impacts Page 8

9 Input - Regional Normalized Swing Weights for Attributes: Median by Region All Regions Abbotsford Campbell River 0.3 Castlegar Cranbrook FN Abbotsford FN Kamloops FN Nanaimo Value FSJ 1 FSJ 2 Kamloops Kitimat Nanaimo Revelstoke Adjusted UEC GHG Impacted Land - Footprint Inundated Land (Water) Local Emissions (Nox) Permanent Jobs Temporary Jobs Squamish Vancouver Vernon Attributes Victoria Page 9

10 Input - Technical Demand Side Management: key questions addressed regarding calculation of costs, evaluation of savings, and new technologies. Suggestions made for rate design and energy efficiency technologies, programs and tools. Environmental attributes: Discussion about the difficulties and challenges of representing planning level information on environmental impacts. Discussion about the treatment of upstream impacts. Reliability & planning criteria: Improved understanding of planning criteria. Page 10

11 Input - Public Wind turbines - High support expressed Power Smart - High support expressed Small hydro - High support expressed New large hydro - Medium support expressed Gas plants - Medium support expressed Coal plants - Low support expressed Site C dam - Medium support expressed Page 11

12 How was the input used? How much to build: What degree of energy Self Sufficiency is appropriate for BC Hydro to pursue? What to build: What overall Resource Mix should be pursued? How much Demand Side Management to pursue? Future role of Site C? Future role of Burrard Generating Station? Over twenty portfolios modeled Tracked impacts across: seven financial attributes forty attributes around social, environmental impacts Page 12

13 Key Questions Page 13

14 Key Questions - Self Sufficiency Page 14

15 Self Sufficiency - Options Currently, BC Hydro plans to have sufficient domestic resources (capacity and energy) to meet domestic requirements even in very low water years. even in very cold weather conditions On an average year, BC Hydro will have a surplus amount of electricity BC Hydro looked for input around three broad directions: relaxing the self-sufficiency criteria and buying more from the market if we are short on energy maintaining the current self-sufficiency criteria increasing the self-sufficiency criteria and selling more into the market if we have excess energy Page 15

16 Self Sufficiency - Tradeoffs Page 16

17 Self Sufficiency - Tradeoffs Page 17

18 Self Sufficiency - Outcomes Provincial Committee recommendations: strongly opposed to relaxing self-sufficiency (and buying from the market to meet shortfalls) all accepted general direction of self-sufficiency all accepted the general direction for increased selfsufficiency as insurance interests here were to guard against unforeseen shortfalls of energy examples might be unexpected increases in demand, attrition of expected projects, DSM not delivering promised energy savings support would be far from unanimous if increased production was mainly for export market members concerns were environmental and social impacts as well as cost risk Input from Regional Workshops, First Nations, and the general public Page 18

19 Key Questions - Overall Resource Mix Page 19

20 Overall Resource Mix - Options Low Air Impacts portfolio used only non-thermal resources Low Land Impacts portfolio used resources close to Lower Mainland to avoid a) transmission lines, b) inundation of reservoirs almost all natural gas projects, but some wind and small hydro 100% Green portfolio only resources considered green under federal government s Eco-Logo program Diverse Resources used resources from all categories (except large hydro) Low Cost strictly the lowest cost resources varied depending on one s view of future GHG offset costs Page 20

21 Overall Resource Mix - Tradeoffs Page 21

22 Overall Resource Mix - Outcomes Provincial Committee s recommendations: no single option chosen strong desire to avoid land, water and air impacts => Green portfolio accepted by most Committee members those that didn t cited costs as their interest strong desire of many to keep costs low lower cost portfolios not acceptable to some due to environmental impacts Varied beliefs around future prices in electricity markets of GHG offset costs a cluster of beliefs that future electricity prices (driven by gas prices) would be very high, and GHG offset costs would be very low led some to see coal cost effective, low risk option Page 22

23 Overall Resource Mix - Outcomes Other themes from the diverse group of Committee members regional equity and citing resources close to load growth (Lower Mainland) public ownership as a positive attribute diversity of resources (to guard against future uncertainty in fuel availability (hydro)) Input from Regional Workshops, First Nations, and the general public Page 23

24 Key Questions - Demand Side Management Page 24

25 Demand Side Management - Options and Tradeoffs Three Demand Side Management programs examined: Power Smart 3, Power Smart 4, and Power Smart 5 No significant trade-offs programs are competitive with other resource options in terms of cost avoids environmental and social footprint of other energy sources Concerns: some questioned whether Hydro could deliver the energy savings it estimated (a supply risk) some questioned whether elements were just a subsidy to industry Page 25

26 Demand Side Management - Outcomes Provincial Committee s recommendations: consensus that BC Hydro should substantially increase DSM programs (up to and including Power Smart 5) some felt that even more needs to be done to promote energy conservation some felt that the cost effectiveness of the programs needs to be watched Input from Regional Workshops, First Nations, and the general public Page 26

27 Key Questions - Site C Page 27

28 Site C - Options Two options for Site C were looked at: include Site C in portfolio of resources; or exclude Site C from portfolio of resources. Page 28

29 Site C - Tradeoffs Page 29

30 Site C - Outcomes Provincial Committee s recommendations: no consensus on this topic, but very few people accepted it or rejected it without some qualifications. General Themes: Site C is a large source of energy that looks to be available at low cost, with low air emissions; Many committee members would accept Site C if local residents and First Nations accepted it; land, aquatic, and social impacts past grievances More detailed cost estimates desired before further decisions can be made. Input from Regional Workshops, First Nations, and the general public Page 30

31 Key Questions - Burrard Generating Station Page 31

32 Burrard Generating Station - Options Four broad options were considered: retire Burrard in 2014 maintain Burrard for capacity maintain Burrard for energy and capacity repower Burrard Page 32

33 Burrard Generating Station - Tradeoffs Page 33

34 Burrard Generating Station - Outcomes Provincial Committee s recommendations: Do not rely on Burrard for energy generation Do not repower Burrard for both of these points, the Committee expressed a fear of high costs and high cost risk and a concern around environmental consequences. Do not retire Burrard completely no measured benefits over other options would lose flexibility around future options for the plant (if gas prices decrease, if there is a transmission failure, etc) Maintain Burrard for capacity only accepted by most (but not all) Committee members Input from Regional Workshops, First Nations, and the general public Page 34

35 Overall Outcomes There is not one approach which will address or meet the diversity of values expressed through the process Values fall into several themes or clusters These themes are reflected by four strategies represent four different directions forward for BC Hydro Page 35

36 Proposed Strategies - Options and Tradeoffs Page 36

37 Proposed Strategies - Common Elements Page 37

38 Proposed Strategies - Common Elements - cont d Cost Risk Site C and past grievances Capacity Projects Transmission Projects Page 38

39 Proposed Strategies - Outcomes Page 39

40 Your Input on Strategies Step 1 - Rank these strategies from your first choice (#1) to your last (#4) Give 100 points to your first choice Give lower ranked options fewer points to show strength of your support Page 40

41 Next Steps November 2005 March 2006 Late 2006/2007 File IEP (with the Action Plan as the last chapter) Revenue Requirement Application Inititate 2007 IEP Continuation of Programs like Power Smart Continutation of Competitve Acquisition Process Continuation of Individual Project Development Feedback will inform future IEP Engagement, competitive acquisition processes, and individual project development Page 41

42 Page 43