Paris Agreement: From Low Carbon to Decarbonization

Transcription

1 Paris Agreement: From Low Carbon to Decarbonization Kentaro Tamura, PhD Leader, Climate and Energy Area Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) British Embassy Tokyo Seminar Aligning business to a low-carbon world: Leadership, strategy and change 30 June 2016

2 Long-term temperature goal (Art. 2): To achieve the temperature goal (Art.4) Paris Agreement Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels Global peaking of GHG emissions as soon as possible A balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of GHG in the second half of this century Net zero = Decarbonization = Transformation 2

3 What Does the 2/1.5 C Goal Mean?: Carbon Budget (1) Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtCO2) Temperature anomaly relative to (degrees C) Cumulative total emissions of CO2 and global temperature response are approximately linearly related. 515GtC was already emitted by GtC Source:IPCC AR5 Two key messages: The more we emit, the higher temperature is. = Net zero emission is inevitable, if we want to stabilize the global warming at any level! Carbon budget of 790GtC (2900GtCO2) is determined. The remaining carbon budget is 275GtC (1010GtCO2). Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtC) 3

4 What Does the 2/1.5 C Goal Mean?: Carbon Budget (2) The remaining 2 C budget is much smaller than the total emissions from fossil fuel reserves. Majority of fossil fuel reserves, in particular coal, should remain under ground

5 Ratchet-up mechanism to fill the GAP under the Paris Agreement Gap between Emission path consistency with the well below 2 Emission levels under the current intended nationally determined contribution (INDCs) 5

6 Key Timeline prior to the Paris Agreement Parties with 2025-timeframe INDC are to communicate new NDCs by Parties with 2030-timeframe INDC are requested to communicate or update 2030 NDCs by All Parties are requested to communicate their longterm low emission strategies by Now Facilitative Dialogue ( Mini global stocktake) IPCC 1.5 C Report 6 6

7 Linking Short-term NDCs and Long-term Strategies Origin and Recent Development U.S.-China Joint Presidential Statement on Climate Change (Sep. 25, 2015) The United States and China underscore the importance of formulating and making available mid-century strategies for the transition to low-carbon economies, mindful of the below 2 degree C global temperature goal. U.S.-Canada Joint Statement on Climate, Energy, and Arctic Leadership (10 Feb 2016) As we implement our respective INDCs, the leaders also commit to, in 2016, completing midcentury, long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies pursuant to the Paris Paris Agreement and encouraging this approach with members of the G-20. How will the US formulate its long-term low GHG emission development strategy and link the strategy with its successive NDC (2030 emissions reduction target) in a coherent manner? 7

8 Japan s GHG Emissions Trends and Short/Mid/Long-term Targets/Goal million ton-co2e 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, % reduction in 2020 (against 2005) 26% reduction in 2030 (against 2013) Global Warming Measures Plan 2020 target 2030 target 2050 aspirational goal Discussion about long-term vision for achieving 80% reduction will start under METI and MOEJ in parallel % reduction in 2050 (Base year is not specified) Basis for long-term low GHG emission development strategy Can it be used for updating of the 2030 target in 2020? 8

9 Impacts of Thermal Power Plant Plans in Japan Source: Kuriyama and Tamura 2016 [Mid-term] Full construction of the current coal- and gas-fired power plants makes it impossible to meet the INDC assumption, unless coal-fired and gas-fired plant utilization rates go down to 56% and 43%, respectively. Otherwise, power companies have to make coordination among themselves to retire some of their thermal plants under the voluntary framework. Is this really possible? 9

10 Impacts of Thermal Power Plant Plans in Japan Source: Kuriyama and Tamura 2016 [Long-term] Lock-in effects are obvious. Amounting to 60%-66% of the Japan s total emissions in case of 80% reduction in 2050! 10

11 Knowledge available from Scenario Analysis: Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) Decarbonization trajectories of world s 16 highest emitting economies are developed; A common approach is applied (known as backcasting), which uses the 2050 goal as a starting point; Common tools are used to ensure transparency of the working hypotheses, including in sectors and technologies. Case Study of Japan was implemented by: National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES); Mizuho Information & Research Institute, Inc. (MHIR); Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) 11

12 Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Japan Mixed Scenario Large-scale energy demand reduction by end users Decarbonization of power generation through a massive deployment of CCS. No-Nuclear Scenario A complete phase-out of nuclear power by 2050 (compared with a remaining 5% share in the Mixed Scenario) Additional deployment of renewable energy and natural gas equipped with CCS. Limited CCS Scenario Limitations on CCS deployment A substantial increase of renewable energy, particularly solar solar PV and wind power In all scenarios, energy-related CO2 emissions decrease more than 80% by 2050 from 2010 levels. 12

13 Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Japan Three pillars of transformation Improvement in energy efficiency and conservation = Common to other 15 countries Electrification Decarbonization of electrification Mixed Scenario No-nuclear Scenario Limited CCS Scenario 13

14 Economic impacts (Average investment and energy saving for three scenarios) Mid-term period: Long-term period: Investment rather than cost Investment > Energy saving Investment Energy saving Source: SDSN and IDDRI (2015) Pathway to deep decarbonization in Japan 14

15 Economic impacts (Average investments by sector ) Major investment for mid-term period : Major investment for long-term period: Energy transformation (e.g. renewable energies) Energy transformation and transport (EV and FCV) Source: SDSN and IDDRI (2015) Pathway to deep decarbonization in Japan 15

16 Transformation is inevitable. Transformation always creates winners and losers. Those who doe not change will be losers. Royal DSM CEO at Dialogues on De-carbonized Economy in Paris COP21 Need to develop long-term business strategy for decarbonization, and act now! Policy framework to create enabling environments is necessary. To make business to take risks posed by climate change in their operation more seriously, and to capture emerging opportunities in decarbonisation more proactively To avoid carbon lock-in Conclusion Public acceptance of decarbonization pathways needs to be promoted. Inclusive multi-stakeholder engagement process 16

17 Mixed Scenario The long-term GHG emission reduction target is achieved by large-scale energy demand reduction by end users and decarbonization of power generation through a massive deployment of CCS. Other Geothermal Biomass Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Natural gas w/ccs Natural gas Coal w CCS Coal Final elec. Solid biomass Pipeline gas Liquid fuels Coal w CCS Coal District heating Final elec. Solar thermal Pipeline gas Liquid fossil Coal Hydrogen Grid electricity Biofuel Pipeline gas Liquid fossil Source: SDSN and IDDRI (2015) Pathway to deep decarbonization in Japan 17

18 No-Nuclear Scenario A complete phase-out of nuclear power by 2050 (compared with a remaining 5% share in the Mixed Scenario). In this scenario, an 80% emission reduction in 2050 is still feasible with additional deployment of renewable energy and natural gas equipped with CCS. Other Geothermal Biomass Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Natural gas w/ccs Natural gas Coal w CCS Final elec. Solid biomass Pipeline gas Liquid fuels Coal w CCS Coal District heating Final elec. Solar thermal Pipeline gas Liquid fossil Coal Hydrogen Grid electricity Biofuel Pipeline gas Liquid fossil Coal Source: SDSN and IDDRI (2015) Pathway to deep decarbonization in Japan 18

19 Limited CCS Scenario To achieve the long-term emission-reduction target through a substantial increase of renewable energy, particularly solar PV and wind power. Other Geothermal Biomass Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Natural gas w/ccs Natural gas Coal w CCS Coal Final elec. Solid biomass District heating Pipeline gas Liquid fuels Coal w CCS Final elec. Solar thermal Pipeline gas Liquid fossil Coal Hydrogen Grid electricity Biofuel Pipeline gas Liquid fossil Source: SDSN and IDDRI (2015) Pathway to deep decarbonization in Japan 19