Energy Efficiency: Needed in 1980, Needed Now. Steven Nadel, ACEEE ACEEE Policy & Analysis Conference December 2010

Transcription

1 Energy Efficiency: Needed in 1980, Needed Now Steven Nadel, ACEEE ACEEE Policy & Analysis Conference December 2010

2 1980

3 Much Has Been Accomplished in the Past 30 Years But Much Left to Do

4 Why Efficiency? Economy Creates jobs Enables growth Improves reliability, reduces price volatility Security Reduce imports, vulnerabilities Environment Reduce emissions Less damage from energy development

5 Energy Productivity Shifts Spending To Greater Labor and GDP Impacts Energy Efficiency ^ ^ Source: 2007 IMPLAN data set for the U.S. economy (2009).

6 Manufacturers of Efficient Equipment Lennox furnaces & AC, Marshalltown, IA Rheem AC and Trane furnaces, Fort Smith, AR Whirlpool, Amana IA, Fort Smith, AR, Clyde, and Ottawa, OH; GE, Louisville, KY Baldor Motors, Fort Smith, AR Emerson Motors, St. L. and Mena, AR

7 U.S. GDP Expansion as a Function of Energy Efficiency Improvements, GDP Index (1970=1) U.S. Gross Domestic Product Productivity growth as a function of energy efficiency improvements Expansion of the economy, based growth in labor, capital, and energy Source: Preliminary calculations by Laitner adapting Ayres and Warr (2009) using BEA and EIA data.

8 Key Policies Supporting Chinese Goal to Reduce Energy Intensity 20% Source: Levine et al., LBL

9 Oil Imports by Country of Origin Source: EIA, AER 2009

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11 McKinsey Global s Analysis of Carbon Reduction Potential

12 30 Years of ACEEE Accomplishments Hosted over 60 conferences since 1980 Over 200 research reports published Lead negotiator on consensus efficiency standards adopted in 1987, 1988, 1992, 2005 and 2007 Active in state policy, working in more than 30 states E.g. contributed to legislation in CT, FL, IL, MA, MD, MI, NM, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, TX, VA, WA, WI Major contributor to other provisions in federal and state legislation and regulation

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14 Projections of U.S. Energy Use X

15 U.S. Energy Use in Relation to GDP Energy Service Demand Actual Energy Supply Energy Service Demand Adjusted for Imports Quads of Total Primary Energy Energy Demand Year

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17 Impact of U.S. Refrigerator Efficiency Standards 25% savings pending for next revision

18 Market Transformation for Refrigerators Interaction of Standards, Energy Star & Tax Incentives Standard EnergyStar minimum tax credit maximum tax credit kwh/year

19 Savings from Existing Appliance Standards Relative to U.S. Electricity Use Source: Neubauer et al., 2009, ACEEE

20 Utility EE Policies & Programs NH VT ME RI MA CT NJ MD DE DC VA Significant EE Programs 2006 and earlier Significant EE Programs 2007 and later

21 Range of Levelized Costs (cents per kwh) Levelized Utility Cost of Electricity Resources Note: The green bars represent the lower end while the blue bars reflect the upper end of costs. average = Energy Efficiency Wind Biomass Natural Gas Combined Cycle Pulverized Coal Nuclear Coal IGCC Sources: ACEEE 2009 for EE, Lazard 2008 for others

22 Source: DOE.

23 U.S. Gasoline Consumption Million Barrels per Day Standard under consideration for MY2025 (high) Standard under consideration for MY2025 (low) Adopted standards (through MY2016) At 26.4 mpg (MY2009

24 Average U.S. New Home Size

25 New Energy Uses

26 Looking To the Future Next few years Next 30+ years

27 112 th Congress Bipartisan items, such as provisions in ACELA Something on financing, perhaps part of Fannie/Freddie reform Perhaps something on revitalizing manufacturing Clean Energy Resource Standard Tax incentives

28 Efficiency Elements in ACELA Consensus appliance and equipment standards Improved building codes Residential and commercial retrofit authorizations Building labeling Industrial/building job training & TA IAC, BTAC Programs for industry Demand response (House only so far)

29 Clean Energy Resource Standard Includes renewables, efficiency, nuclear, carbon capture and storage Examples Lugar and Graham bills Issues: Numbers 20% by 2020 or higher? No cap on efficiency Carbon storage vs. sequestration ready

30 Tax Incentives Extend/modify 25C Performance-based home retrofits (like Gold Star) Improve commercial building tax deduction Some possible new items (Bingaman/Snowe) Chillers Advanced motors Homes that save 50% of all energy Expand CHP credit Perhaps accelerated depreciation for EE investments

31 Revitalizing Manufacturing Senators Brown, Stabenow and others introduced IMPACT 2-yr, $30 billion manufacturing revolving loan fund to improve manufacturing processes and to retool and expand production of clean energy products Discussions begun about a bipartisan package

32 2010 State Energy Efficiency Scorecard

33 State Policies Covered 1. Utility and public benefits programs and policies; 2. Transportation policies; 3. Building energy codes; 4. Combined heat and power; 5. State government initiatives; and 6. Appliance efficiency standards.

34 Role of Efficiency in Addressing Climate Change in the U.S. 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 30% Reduction by 2030 Existing Efficiency Opportunities New Opportunities Current Projected Emissions Up to an Additional 30% Reduction by ,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Goal: 80% Below Conservation, Renewables, Low-Carbon Energy Sources and Other Actions Note: This graph is stylized and is not exact.

35 Solid State Lighting

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38 Heat Pump & Condensing Water Heaters Rheem GE AO Smith

39 Intelligent Efficiency (IT-driven) Automation Substitution De-materialization Industrial Robots Logistics for Transportation Smart Manufacturing and Infrastructure Video Conferencing On-line Entertainment E-commerce Telecommuting On-line Banking Digital Music Digital Publishing

40 Systems Engineering Like Zero Energy Buildings Use energy efficiency to reduce energy use ~70% Often include passive solar and daylighting People and equipment a major source of heat Commonly use PV and solar hot water to supply energy Generally net zero, not off grid

41 Industrial Energy Management Standard ISO DOE launched a program to assist adoption Superior Energy Performance (SEP)

42 U.S. Transportation Petroleum Consumption EPA Oil Reduction Scenario Oil consumption "Scenario B" Million Barrels per Day Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency Heavy Duty Vehicle Efficiency Passenger and Freight Travel Efficiency Nonroad Efficiency

43 Providing Consumers with Feedback on Energy Use Small samples, need further testing 12.0% Annual Percent Savings Avg. ~2% in U.S. 3.8% Enhanced Billing Householdspecific info, advice 6.8% Estimated Feedback Web based energy audits with info on ongoing basis 8.4% Daily/ Weekly Feedback Householdspecific info, advise on daily or weekly basis 9.2% Real Time Feedback Real time premise level info Real Time Plus Feedback Real time info down to the appliance level Indirect Feedback (Provided after Consumption Occurs) Direct Feedback (Provided Real Time)

44 Supportive Policies Price on carbon Perhaps a carbon tax tied to balancing budget Efficiency and clean energy standards Continued improvements in fuel economy, appliance & building standards Support for state and local efforts Policy innovation at the state and local level

45 Energy Efficiency Has Been a Bipartisan Issue

46 Presidents Who Have Signed Major Energy Efficiency Legislation

47 Presidents Who Have Signed Major Energy Efficiency Legislation?

48 Contact Info Steven Nadel