Air Quality, Ecosystem, and Health Impacts of Power Plant Carbon Standards

Transcription

1 Air Quality, Ecosystem, and Health Impacts of Power Plant Carbon Standards Science Briefing House Sustainable Energy & Environment Coalition February 6, 2018

2 Today s Speakers Kathy Fallon Lambert Harvard University Charles Driscoll Syracuse University Jonathan Buonocore Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health Dallas Burtraw Resource For the Future

3 Context The Clean Power Plan (CPP) is the current rule. CPP uses a Beyond the Fence Line approach. EPA has proposed to repeal the CPP. EPA has released an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to solicit input on potential replacement options. Some expect that the replacement plan will take an Inside the Fence Line approach.

4 Power Plant Carbon Standards Co-Benefits Study Scenario 1: Inside the Fence Line considered to be a potential replacement approach Scenario 2: Beyond the Fence Line resembles Clean Power Plan Scenario 3: Carbon Tax at $43/ton (not included today) Driscoll et al. 2015, Buonocore et al. 2016, Capps et al. 2016

5 Inside the Fence Line Approach

6 Beyond the Fence Line Approach

7 WHAT ARE CO-BENEFITS? GLOBAL CLIMATE Target pollutant: Carbon dioxide Co-pollutants: Sulfur dioxide Nitrogen oxides Particulate matter POWER PLANT EMISSIONS HEALTH EFFECT Premature deaths, heart attacks, hospitalizations US AIR QUALITY Ground-level ozone, PM2.5, acid deposition ECOSYTEM EFFECT Tree & crop productivity, streams, visibility

8 Study Take-Aways Beyond the Fence Line standards can produce widespread air quality, ecosystem, and health benefits. The value of a subset of health benefits exceed estimated costs for our Beyond the Fence Line scenario. Inside the Fence Line standards can generate disbenefits in the form of increased air pollution and premature deaths in some areas because of emissions rebound.

9 Study Take-Aways, cont. The design of power plant carbon standards determines the magnitude and distribution of associated benefits or disbenefits. Our results underscore the importance of: Using multi-pollutant approach to reveal potential unintended consequences. Mapping full benefits and disbenefits to reveal potential winners/losers. Considering the costs and benefits of a replacement plan when contemplating a repeal of the existing Clean Power Plan.

10 The Co-benefits of Carbon Standards Study Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 IPM Power Sector Analysis & Emissions Estimates CMAQ Air Quality Projections & Deposition Estimates BenMap Human Health Benefits PnET-BGC Acidification Benefits Ozone benefits for timber & crops Visibility Improvements Assumptions: Reference Case Scenario 1: Beyond Fence Line Scenario 2: Inside Fence Line Scenario 3: Carbon Tax

11 EIA 2013 energy demand Reference Case All then-existing standards implemented Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) implemented Clean Air Interstate Rule implemented, including Phase II in 2015 Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) model rule for emissions trading included (w/out NJ) CA Assembly Bill 32 (AB32) included Regional haze rule included Wind power production tax credit (PTC) expires Onshore wind costs: DOE/LBL 2012 Wind Technologies Report Nuclear units re-licensed, 20-year extension Existing state-level requirements for power sector emissions reductions and renewable energy portfolio standards are implemented 2020 model year and baseline emissions

12 Our Beyond the Fence Line Scenario Scenario 2 similar to the Clean Power Plan State-specific rate-based performance standard Establishes benchmark emissions rate for each state Allows wide-range of options for compliance (fuelswitching, energy efficiency, averaging and trading) Allows states to develop alternative plans provided they achieve equivalent emission reductions

13 Our Inside the Fence Line Scenario Scenario 1 possible replacement approach Uses best-in-class heat rates for different coal plant categories Requires emission rate equivalent to closing gap to best in class by 25-40% Compliance options limited to Inside the Fence Line measures: Unit Retrofits Co-fire or convert unit to natural gas or biomass Combine plant efficiency retrofit and co-firing Improves fleet-wide average heat rate 4%

14 Charles Driscoll Distinguished and University Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering Syracuse University Emissions, Air Quality, Ecosystem Effects

15 2,500 Annual Power Sector Emissions in ,250 2,199 2,000 1,719 1,742 1,792 Reference case MMST (CO2) and TST (SO2 and NOx) 1,500 1,000 1,268 1,332 1,293 1,033 Scenario Inside Fence 1 line Scenario Beyond Fence 2 line MMST = million short tons TST = thousand short tons CARBON DIOXIDE SULFUR DIOXIDE NITROGEN OXIDES CO2 SO2 NOx Driscoll et al. 2015

16 Change in U.S. Emissions from Reference Case Beyond the Fence Line Scenario CO 2 = -24% (-35% from 2005 by 2020) SO 2 = -27% NO x = -22% Inside the Fence Line Scenario CO 2 = -2% (-17% from 2005 by 2020) SO 2 = +3% NO x = -3% Clean Power Plan Mass-based Illustrative Case CO 2 = -32% from 2005 by 2030 SO 2 = -21% (2015 RIA) or -31% (2017 RIA) NO x = -21% (2015 RIA) or -23% (2017 RIA) Note: actual emissions reductions depend on State Implementation Plans

17 Emissions Rebound Change in 2020 Coal Generation between Inside Fence Line and Reference 17

18 BEYOND THE FENCE LINE Darker brown = larger reductions Driscoll et al. 2015

19 INSIDE THE FENCE LINE Darkest blue = increase in pollution Driscoll et al. 2015

20 BEYOND THE FENCE LINE

21 INSIDE THE FENCE LINE Darkest blue = increase in pollution Driscoll et al. 2015

22 Ecosystem Benefits

23 Tree & Crop Results The reduction in biomass, or productivity losses from exposure of 4 crops and 11 tree species to ozone are as large as 1.9% and 32%, respectively, in the reference scenario. The Inside the Fence Line scenario reduces these losses by less than 3% for any species. The Beyond the Fence Line scenario decreases productivity losses by as much as 16% and 13% for individual crops or tree species, respectively compared to the reference scenario.

24 Visibility Results Our Beyond the Fence Line Scenario Change in Deciviews on 20% Haziest Days Years of Progress Toward Regional Haze Rule Goal

25 Air Quality Take-Aways For the Beyond the Fence Line scenario, large decreases in estimated SO 2 and NO x emissions lead to decreases in PM 2.5 and summer ozone compared to reference case. Many states are projected to experience substantial improvement in air quality under this scenario: OH, PA, MD, WV, IL, KY, MO, IN, AR, CO, AL, WV.

26 Air Quality Take-Aways, cont. Air quality improvements improve tree & crop growth, visibility, and decrease acid rain. The Inside the Fence Line scenario results in a projected deterioration of air quality in some areas compared to reference case, due to increases in coal generation and emissions rebound.

27 Jonathan Buonocore Program Leader Climate, Energy and Health Center for Health and the Global Environment Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health Health Effects

28 Health Effects of Air Pollution

29 Study Approach - BenMap BenMAP Community Edition v1.08 Model year CMAQ model year Default 2020 population estimates, baseline disease incidence, valuation, pooling

30 Total U.S. Health Outcomes Health Endpoint Premature deaths avoided, All Cause Hospital admissions avoided (all respiratory and cardiovascular) Pollutant Concentration Response Function Ozone and PM 2.5 Ozone and PM 2.5 Beyond Fence Line (central estimate) Roman et al., Jerrett et al. 3,500 Ji et al., Levy et al. and Zanobetti et al. pooled Inside Fence Line (central estimate) -11 ( ) Acute myocardial infarction, nonfatal avoided PM 2.5 Mustafic et al Driscoll et al. 2015

31 BEYOND THE FENCE LINE Driscoll et al. 201

32 INSIDE THE FENCE LINE Driscoll et al. 201

33 Driscoll et al. 201 BEYOND THE FENCE LINE Cases map #2

34 Driscoll et al. 201 INSIDE THE FENCE LINE Scenario 1 lives

35 Advances in PM 2.5 Research Medicare beneficiaries m people across the U.S., with 460 million person-years of follow-up Relationship between PM 2.5 and allcause mortality down to 5 μg/m 3 Relationship between ozone and allcause mortality down to 30 ppb Relationship between PM 2.5 exposure and mortality was steeper at concentrations below 12 μg/m 3 Indicates that health benefit per-unit decrease in the concentration of PM 2.5 is larger below the current annual NAAQS than above. Di et al. 2017

36 Advances in PM 2.5 Research These results are close to the results from many recent studies. Di et al. 2017

37 Monetized Value of Benefits Beyond the Fence Line Scenario Monetized subset of health benefits using BenMap output and default values Did not include: Avoided asthma Stroke Autism Alzheimer s and Dementia Air toxics - mercury, cadmium, carbon monoxide, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons Assumed that all particle types had the same toxicity Did not monetize ecosystem benefits Did not apply a discount rate to value of a life

38 Monetized Value of Benefits Beyond the Fence Line Scenario Health Endpoint Mortality, All Cause Hospital Admission, All Respiratory Pollutant Concentration Response Function Ozone and PM 2.5 Ozone and PM 2.5 Roman et al. Ji et al., Levy et al. and Zanobetti et al. pooled Health Co- Benefits (central estimate) Health Co-Benefits million 2010 USD (central estimate) 3,500 $28, $35.0 Acute Myocardial Infarction, Nonfatal PM 2.5 Mustafic et al. 220 $20.0 Total ~$29,000 Driscoll et al. 2015, Buonocore et al. 2016

39 Monetized Value of Health Co-benefits Beyond the Fence Line (per capita) Buonocore et al. 2016

40 Health Effects Take-Aways The estimated benefits of Beyond the Fence Line scenario are large and widespread. The monetized value of these health co-benefits are approximately $29 B/year. The projected air quality effects of emissions rebound of our Inside the Fence Line scenario generate an increase in premature deaths from the status quo. Recent PM 2.5 and ozone research reduces uncertainty in the health impacts of exposure and provides further evidence for health benefits of reductions at all levels.

41 Dallas Burtraw Darius Gaskins Senior Fellow Resources For the Future Cost-Benefit Analysis

42 Overview of Cost-Benefit Approach Beyond the Fence Line Scenario Benefits Did not monetize ecosystem benefits Monetized subset of health benefits from BenMap Output Did not apply a discount rate to value of a life Costs Estimated cost for O&M, EE from IPM output Our measure of costs includes capital, operations and maintenance for generation and investments in energy efficiency. Assumes a default real interest rate of 4.77% for all expenditures

43 Cost Results Beyond the Fence Line Scenario (2010 USD) National cost = $17 billion Wide range of costs across regions Highest: $3.6 billion in MISO and SERCG (IN, MI, IL, WI, IA, MN, SD, ND) Lowest: -$26 million in SERCC (NC, SC, GA, AL) Buoncore et al. 2017

44 Energy Efficiency Accounting Central cost = $17 billion Also estimate lower and upper cost cases with different accounting of energy efficiency expenditures Yield range of -$450 million to $39 billion Low cost estimate: all energy efficiency expenditures spread over time and yield immediate savings High cost estimate: energy efficiency expenditures take place overnight Central cost estimate: energy efficiency program costs spread over time; overnight consumer costs

45 Costs-Benefit Summary Beyond the Fence Line Scenario (2010 billion USD) Estimated health co-benefits = $29 per year Carbon benefits = $21 per year Estimated cost in 2020 = $17 per year Net benefits = $33 per year 2015 Clean Power Plan RIA benefits = $25 to $ CPP Repeal RIA benefits = $15 to $38 or $-12.7 to $2.1 under different assumptions Buonocore et al. 2016; EPA RIA 2015, 2017

46 Looking Forward The Endangerment Finding implies that repeal of the CPP should anticipate its replacement. That candidate is Inside the Fence Line. Anticipate two types of rebound effects: Greater utilization Extend facility life times A rebound would erode the regulatory purpose, and could worsen other environmental outcomes. Proper analysis should address repeal and replace in a unified and consistent framework.

47 Study Take-Aways Beyond the Fence Line standards can produce widespread air quality, ecosystem, and health benefits. The value of a subset of health benefits exceed estimated costs for our Beyond the Fence Line scenario. Inside the Fence Line standards can generate disbenefits in the form of increased air pollution and premature deaths in some areas because of emissions rebound.

48 Study Take-Aways, cont. The design of power plant carbon standards determines the magnitude and distribution of associated benefits or disbenefits. Our results underscore the importance of: Using multi-pollutant approach to reveal potential unintended consequences. Mapping full benefits and disbenefits to reveal potential winners/losers. Considering the costs and benefits of a replacement plan when contemplating a repeal of the existing Clean Power Plan.

49 Back Pocket Slides

50 State-Level Outcomes

51 Change in CO2 Emission in 2020 (Inside Fence Line Scenario - Reference Case) We project two regions and many individual plants realize an increase in CO2 under a prescriptive inside the fence line regulation. 51