Measurement and Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation from Transport

Transcription

1 Measurement and Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation from Transport Mark Angelo Tacderas Transport Researcher Low Emissions Urban Development Clean Air Asia A Session for the SPAD/Asia LEDS Partnership Workshop on BRT Systems Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia June 24-25,

2 Expectations DAY 1 Basics of Calculating Transport Emissions Introducing the TEEMP BRT tool Hands-on Application of TEEMP - BRT DAY 2 Introduce the TEEMP City 2

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4 Mission: to promote better air quality and livable cities by translating knowledge to policies and actions that reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from transport, energy and other sectors 4

5 Why measure GHG from transport? ü Policy-driven? ü It is only part of the puzzle. We want to better monitor activity data, fuel consumption and efficiencies, other indicators ü Support interventions towards making the transport sector more 5

6 ULTIMATELY, WE WANT TO ADDRESS THIS! 6

7 Scales of Methodologies Clean Development Mechanism Joint Crediting Mechanism IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse gas inventories Count ry Organ izatio n Projec t MRV GHG Protocol for Policy and Action GEF/ TEEMP Source : Adopted from WRI Policy or Meas ure Facilit y City International Standard for GHG Inventories and Verification ISO EU-ETS M&R Guidelines WRI/ICLEI/C40 GHG Protocol for Community Scale Emissions 7

8 UNFCCC The ultimate objective of the Convention is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations "at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human induced) interference with the climate system." It states that "such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner." ü Developed countries to lead the way ü Directs new funds to climate change activities in developing countries ü Keeps tabs on the problem and what s being done about it 8

9 Carbon Markets Regional Market: European Union Emissions Trading System (Cap and Trade) Global Market Program: Clean Development Mechanism Voluntary Markets: Carbonfund.org, etc. Multi-lateral Carbon Funds Potential Future Sources: Green Climate Fund and NAMAs Bi-Lateral Carbon Funds Germany, Japan, and UK have bi-lateral carbon funds Slide from ITDP 9

10 Key Concepts of Measuring Transport Emissions 10

11 Basic Concepts: BAU vs Mitigation Scenario Business-as usual scenario CO2 Emissions Emissions savings Can either be: 1. Without any projects or policies assumed 2. With impacts of exisjng projects and policies disjnguished from project under evaluajon Mitigation scenario EsJmated emissions with project or policy in place Base year Time horizon Target year Time 11

12 General Estimation Approaches Top Down Aggregate fuel data Bottom-up Transport activity-based 12

13 Advantages and Disadvantages Top-down approach + probability of data being available consistency in data collection Bottom-up approach + Bottom-up approach more detailed information allows better analysis of interventions Enables analysis of other co-benefits low level of detail limitations in assessing specific interventions time and costs in data collection standardized procedures for collecting specific data may not be available 13

14 Top Down (for CO2) Volume of fuel consu med Energy containe d in fuel (MJ/kg of fuel) Total Energy consume d (TJ) Carbon content per energy unit (ton Carbon/TJ) Fraction of fuel oxidized (%) Total CO2 emission s (tonsco 2) Carbon to CO2 converter (44/12) 14

15 Top Down (2) -Simplified Volu me of fuel consu med CO2 Emission Factor per amount of fuel consumed Total CO2 Emission s (kgco2) Tells you how much CO2 is emitted Doesn t tell you much about the sources Doesn t enable mitigation impacts analysis of 15

16 kgco2/ liter Gasoline : 2.4 Diesel : 2.6 If a gasoline car and a diesel car are travelling the same highway, which one will emit more CO2? 16

17 Bottom-up A Travel Activity s Structure of the transportation system I Intensity of the transportation modes F Emission Factors Transp ort Emissi ons 17

18 Putting ASIF in Context : Personal Travel Activity How many trips will I make today? How far is each trip? Structure What are the purpose of my trips? How will I make each trip? Will I use a car? bus? What is the fuel emission standard of the vehicle? Intensity How many kilometers can my car travel with one liter of fuel? How many people are in the car? Fuel Carbon Content How much carbon is in the fuel of the vehicle? 18

19 Fitting ASIF onto GHG Measurement Activity (Total Passengerkm or ton-km) Structure (% of PKM, TKM done by modes) Intensity (e.g. kilometer/liter of fuel) Volu me of fuel consu med Total CO2 Emissio s (kgco2) Factor of Emissions (e.g. kgco2/liter of gasoline) 19

20 20 Photo credit: Transit Utopia transitutopia.blogspot.com Photo credit: Transit Utopia transitutopia.blogspot.com

21 Which estimation approach do you want to take? q What is the objective of the measurement? q What data do you have? q What tools do you have to analyze the data? q What capacity do you have or want to develop in the organization with regards to CO2 estimation? 21

22 CO2 Impacts of interventions 22

23 CO2 Emissions Reduction : BAU vs Project Business-as usual scenario Emissions savings Emissions Project scenario Time 23

24 Establish baseline emissions Inform intervention selection Inform reduction goals Attract financial support Ex-ante estimation What is the potential emissions reduction impact of the intervention? Baseline study needed Start of intervention Impacts Measurement: Timing Evaluate intervention effectiveness Meet funder requirements Improve intervention design Monitoring and Expost evaluation Is the intervention delivering the emission reduction as expected? Why? Monitoring plan and actual monitoring 24

25 Ex-ante Business-as usual scenario Emissions savings Emissions Ex-ante Project scenario Time 25

26 Ex-post Business-as usual scenario Ex-post Project Emissions Ex-ante Project scenario Ex-post Project Time Monitoring plan is needed 26

27 CO2 Emissions in the No Project Scenario - CO2 Emissions in the Project Scenario = CO2 Savings 27

28 Example : MRT Project 28

29 Project Scenario : Emissions What are possible unintended effects? What are the impacts on the emissions? Do you include these in the analysis? Leakage s? 29

30 Construction and Operations (% of total CO2 footprint of projects) 30

31 No Project Scenario : Emissions What mode would they have used in the absence of the MRT? What is the average distance? 31

32 No Project Scenario : Emissions Gasoline Vehicle Kilometers VKM /day x Average Fuel Efficiency of Gasoline Cars x kgco2/liter of gasoline Diesel x Average Fuel Efficiency of Diesel Cars x kgco2/liter of diesel LPG x Average Fuel Efficiency of LPG Cars x kgco2/liter oflpg x Average Fuel Efficiency of Other types x kgco2/unit of other fuels Etc... A CO2 Emission Factor (kgco2/liter) Fuel Efficiency (km/liter) % s I CO2 Emissions in the NO PROJECT SCENARIO F 32

33 Avoid-Shift-Improve (ASI) Policy Framework s I A Avoid Compact community design Fuel taxes ICT Parking fees Shift Promotion of alternative transport modes Improving service of public transport Improve Fuel economy standards Old vehicle replacement/ scrapping program Promotion of alternative fuel vehicles 33

34 ASI and ASIF : General Relationships A A Activity How much is the reduction in travel demand? s s Structure Was there a shift towards more environmentallyfriendly modes? I I Intensity Was there an improvement in fuel efficiency? F Was there are reduction in the Factor of emission factor? (e.g. shift to emissions lower carbon intensive fuel?) 34

35 ` Upstream emissions (fuel production, transportation, construction, electricity generation for e-vehicles) Downstream emissions (tailpipe) How does the intervention impact 35

36 A s I F A company is looking at buying low rolling resistance tires for its vehicles and wants to monitor the impacts on CO2 emissions of the fleet. Which ASIF parameter will be affected? 36

37 Sample Indicators : Based on ADB Application of TEEMP DescripJon Expressway Bikeway Rural Road (capacity) Rural Road (RehabilitaJon) Metro/Monorail BRTS Railway Urban Road 2 lane to 4 lane Urban Road 4 lane to 6 lane CO2 Savings Indicator (ton per unit) unit ton/km/year ton/km/year ton/km/year ton/km/year ton/km/year ton/km/year ton/km/year ton/km/year ton/km/year 37

38 Linkages of Various Interventions to Transport Indicators 38

39 ASIF Approach Enables Co-benefits Analysis In many cases, the data needed for calculating CO2 impacts can be used in analyzing other co-benefits 39

40 Ex-post Evaluation and Monitoring Plans 40

41 Ex-post I s t h e intervention delivering the emissions reductions that i t h a s promised? Data to be monitored: -What -Why 41 -When

42 CDM : BRT Bogota Transmilenio Passengers transported by project (million) Share of passengers which would have used passenger cars (%) TransMilenio Phase II to IV Monitoring Monitoring Monitoring 2006 Monitoring 2010 Expecte Expecte Expecte d Actual Actual d Actual d Actual Expected Share of passengers which 89.1 would have used buses (%) Share of passengers which would have used taxis (%) Share of passengers which would have used NMT or not made the trip (%) Emission reducjons - 40% - 70% - 74% - 74% BRT Bogotá, Colombia: TransMilenio Phase II To IV (monitoring report 2010) 42

43 Registered CDM Projects Transport As of end of 2013 Others Why is it hard to measure the actual impacts of a transportrelated mitigation 43

44 Challenges in Transport CO2 MRV Unique nature of mobile sources of emissions in the transport sector Patchy and insufficient data Complexity and cost of data collection methods (as required by some mechanisms) Availability of suitable modeling tools Geographical boundaries setting and estimating leakages Difficulties in ensuring endurance of emissions reductions 44

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46 CDM AM0031 :BRT Data Required Data variable Number of vehicles Recording ProporKon of data to be monitored frequency Before project start and annually (in the case 100% and annually based on a survey of modal shib for passenger cars) of passengers using the new system Fuel efficiency Before project start Sample Total distance driven by all vehicles in category Before project start and parjally annually Sample Passengers transported baseline by vehicle category I Before project start 100% Average occupancy rate baseline of vehicle category I Before project start and for buses and taxis Sample minimum year 3, 6 and 10 Average trip distance baseline for vehicle category I Before project start and annually (in the case Sample and sample survey of modal shib for passenger cars) Total fuel consumpjon per vehicle category Before project start Sample Passengers transported by project Annually 100% Share of passengers that would have taken transport Annually mode I Passengers transported by project who would have Bi- monthly used transport mode i Sample survey Policies that affect baseline 100% Before project start and annually Sample survey 46

47 Sample Data Template 47

48 Other elements Source: IGES 48

49 Tool Examples 49

50 Green Trucks Toolkit This toolkit is a simple excel-based model which can be used to estimate the baseline impacts of a fleet as well as evaluate the impacts of appplying different technologies and strategies that improve Objectives vehicle efficienies and/or reduce pollution. The tool was developed with the following objectives in mind: Enable users, particularly truck fleet managers, to roughly estimate the air pollution and greenhouse gas emission impacts of their fleets Raise awareness on the strategies that managers of truck fleets can use in order to reduce the environmental impacts of their fleets and increase their fleets efficiencies 50

51 Backcasting Tool (Released May 2014) FreightShip FreightAir 10,000 FreightRail Truck 8,000 PassShip PassAir 6,000 PassRail 2W/3W 4,000 Small buses Large bus 2,000 Jeeps Pickups thousand tons CO2 Developed by ITPS, in cooperation with Clean Air Asia National level mitigation analysis of avoid-shiftimprove 12,000 Car 51

52 TEEMP Transport Emissions Evaluation Model for Projects (TEEMP, pronounced as TEMP à temporary) ü Bus rapid transit ü MRT ü Railways ü Walking infrastructure improvement ü Bikeways ü Bike sharing ü Commuter strategies ü Pricing strategies ü Eco-driving ü PAYD Insurance ü TEEMP City 52

53 Model Name Scale Sectors Level of Detail IPCC Inventory Global All Anthro & NonAnthro Inventory of all sources of GHG emission. Not a forecast model, though IPCC has scenarios. ICCT ROADMAP Global / 13 Regions Transport (Vehicles) Vehicle Fleet &Fuel-based model that can create vehicle tech mitigation scenarios. Open. Transport (Vehicles +) Based on vehicle fleets and country energy data. Can analyze scenarios for pricing and mode switching. Proprietary. IEA MOMO Global and Mobility by Country Model TRANUS / 4S + GHG Analytics Metropolita Transport n Region Ad hoc GHG analysis can be created using TRANUS or 4-step travel models for city and metropolitan regions. CDM Methodologi es Projectspecific Different types of transport related interventions Highly detailed ex-post model relies a great deal of observation-based data. TEEMP Projectspecific Transport (interventions) Ex-ante sketch planning model that includes default data, low data requirements. GREET Fleet Transport (Vehicles and fuels) Shows emissions (life cycle) for each mode- fuel combination Transport Baseline inventory and sketch impact analysis of Green Fleet 53

54 Cleanairinitiative.org 54

55 Key Elements ü Clear objectives for measuring (and reporting, verification) ü Clear scope and approach ü Use of defaults in ex-ante calculations are most often practical ü Transparency, consistency, comparability, completeness, accuracy ü Tools to aid measurement 55

56 Suggested Readings/References IPCC Guidelines on GHG inventories (1996 and 2006) National guidelines Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Methodologies Project specific Includes monitoring plan International Vehicle Emissions model (IVE) USEPA AP-42 GEF Manual for Calculating GHG Benefits of GEF Transportation Projects à TEEMP GHG Protocol (WRI) Transport Co-benefits Manual (IGES) 56

57 For more Forinformation: more information: g Clean Air Asia China Office 901A Reignwood Building, No. 8 YongAnDongLi Jianguomenwai Avenue Beijing China Clean Air Asia Center center@cleanairasia.org Clean Air Asia India Office india@cleanairasia.org Unit 3505 Robinsons 1st Floor, Building No. 4 Equitable Tower Thyagraj Nagar Market, Lodhi ADB Avenue, Pasig City Colony Metro Manila 1605 New Delhi Philippines Clean Air Asia Country India. India. Indonesia.Networks Nepal. Pakistan. Philippines. Sri Lanka. Vietnam China Clean Air Asia Center Members Shell Asia Clean Fuels Association Corning 240 Clean Air Asia Partnership Members Donors in 2012 to 2013 Asian Development Bank l Cities Development Initiative for Asia l Cities ClimateWorks Foundation l DHL/IKEA/UPS l Energy Foundation l Environment ministries and Fredskorpset Norway l Fu Tak Iam Foundation l German International Cooperation (GIZ) l Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) l government agencies Institute for Transport Policy Studies l Institute for Transportation and Development agencies and Development Policy l International Union for Conservation of Nature l foundations L'Agence Française de Développement (AFD) l MAHA l Pilipinas Shell l Non-government organizations Academic and research institutions Rockefeller Brothers Fund l Shakti Foundation l Shell Foundation l United Nations Environment Program Partnership for Clean Fuels and Vehicles Private sector companies and 57 (UNEP PCFV) l USAID CEnergy l Veolia l World Bank associations