DENVER OZONE MODELING FOR NAAQS ATTAINMENT. Ralph Morris Ramboll Environ

Transcription

1 DENVER OZONE MODELING FOR NAAQS ATTAINMENT Ralph Morris Ramboll Environ Acknowledgements: Amanda Brimmer, Ken Lloyd & Jerry Dilley, Denver RAQC Dennis McNally & Cyndi Loomis, Alpine Geophysics Kevin Briggs, Curtis Taipale, Gordon Pierce & Dale Wells, CDPHE Ramboll Environ Staff

2 OZONE NAAQS AND DENVER NONATTAINMENT AREA 1-Hour Ozone Standard (0.125 ppm) 1982 Ozone Attainment State Implementation Plan (SIP) 1987 Region Attains Standard 2001 Region Designated Attainment/Maintenance Area Hour Ozone Standard (0.08 ppm) 2004 Early Action Compact (EAC) Ozone Action Plan SIP 2006 Revision to EAC Ozone Action Plan SIP Hour Ozone Attainment Plan SIP 2009 Region Attains Standard /2020 Ozone Sensitivity Modeling Mar Hour Ozone Standard (0.075 ppm) 2012 Ozone Nonattainment Area Designations Oct Hour Ozone Standard ( ppm?)

3 DENVER REGIONAL AIR QUALITY COUNCIL (RAQC) MODELING STUDIES Study Episode Met PGM Grids (km) Future Year 2004 EAC SIP Jun Jul 2002 MM5 CAMx 36/12/ O3 SIP Jun Jul 2006 MM5 CAMx 36/12/4/(1.33) May Aug 2008 WRF CAMx 36/12/4 2020* 2016 O3 SIP May Sep 2011 WRF CAMx 36/12/ episode modeling introduced link based mobile source emissions modeling (CONCEPT) that greatly improved ozone model performance in Denver Better characterization of distribution of Heavy Duty Truck emissions 2008 episode modeling started using WRF & CAMx w/ improved vertical velocity treatment Improved meteorological representation results in improved ozone performance Less transport of ozone from aloft on days without stratospheric intrusion

4 8-HOUR OZONE TRENDS AND COMPARISONS TO NAAQS Hour Ozone (ppb) Hour Ozone Standard <85 ppb Hour Ozone Standard 75 ppb Range Proposed by EPA for 2015 Standard Annual 4th Highest Daily Maximu m 8 Hour Ozone (ppb) 3 Year Average 4th Max (Regional Design Value) Year

5 2002 DENVER OZONE SOURCE APPORTIONMENT MODELING FROM MAY 31, 2004 REPORT Rocky Flat North (RFNO) monitor to northwest of Denver Metropolitan Area (DMA) highest ozone Design Value (DV) O3 DV = 87 ppb Boundary Conditions (45 ppb) around CONUS domain largest contributor (60%) International/Stratospheric Transport DMA (20 ppb) next largest contributor (27%) On road (13%), non road (7%), Point (5%)

6 JUNE-JULY 2006 DENVER OZONE SENSITIVITY TEST MODELING Biogenic (GloBEIS vs. MEGAN) MM5 LSM/PBL (P-X/ACM vs. NOAH/MRF-ETA) Vertical Mixing (OB70 w/ Kv100) BCs (GEOS-Chem vs. MOZART) Mobile Sources (SMOKE-MOBILE6 vs. CONCEPT-MOBILE6 [link-based]) Model Performance Evaluation (O3, NO2, CO, VOC) Run Grids Emissions MM5 Met Kv Profiles Boundary Identifier (km) Biogenic MVVOC LSM PBL Kv Kv_min Conditions Run GloBEIS 1x P-X ACM OB70 Kv100 GEOS-CHEM Run MEGAN 1x P-X ACM OB70 Kv100 GEOS-CHEM Run /4 GloBEIS 1x P-X ACM OB70 Kv100 Run1.36 Run3 4 MEGAN 1x P-X ACM OB70 Kv100 Run Run4 4 GloBEIS 1x P-X ACM OB m 2 /s Run Run5 4 GloBEIS 1x P-X ACM CMAQ 1.0 m 2 /s Run Run6 4 GloBEIS 1x P-X ACM CMAQ Kv100 Run Run7 4 GloBEIS 2x P-X ACM OB70 Kv100 Run Run8 4 GloBEIS 1x NOAH ETA OB70 Kv100 Run Run9 4 GloBEIS 1x NOAH MRF OB70 Kv100 Run Run10 4 GloBEIS 3x P-X ACM OB70 KV100 Run Run11 36 GloBEIS 1x P-X ACM OB70 KV100 MOZART Run GloBEIS 1x P-X ACM OB70 KV100 Run11.36

7 CAMX 2006 OZONE MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION Able to eliminate ozone hole in Denver

8 2006 VOC MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION Good VOC performance in downtown Denver (CAMP) VOC underestimation in Weld County Predicted vs. Observed VOC at CAMP Predicted Observed VOC [ppbc] Date Predicted vs. Observed VOC at Ft Lupton Predicted Observed 0.00 Predicted vs. Observed NOx at CAMP Predicted Observed NOx [ppb] Date Predicted vs. Observed VOC/NOx Ratio at CAMP Predicted Observed VOC/NOx [ppbc/ppb] VOC [ppbc] Date Date Predicted vs. Observed VOC at Platteville Predicted Observed VOC [ppbc] Date

9 INVESTIGATE CAMX 2006 VOC UNDERESTIMATION IN WELD COUNTY Ethane Measurements: Ethane also underestimated Back Trajectories: On days with high VOC underestimation pass over O&G fields CAMx O&G VOC Sensitivity Test: 5 x O&G VOC improves VOC performance in Weld County without degrading performance in Denver Predicted vs. Observed VOC at Ft Lupton Run23 = 5 x O&G VOC Receptor Modeling: Use CMB and PMF w/ VOC observations CAMx VOC Source Apportionment: Emissions based Emissions based source apportionment underestimates O&G VOC contributions compared to measurement based VOC [ppbc] /16 6/19 6/22 6/25 6/28 Observed Run 22 Run 23 7/1/ 7/4/ 7/7/ Date 7/10 7/13 7/16 7/19 7/22 7/25 7/28

10 RESULTS FROM 2006 EPISODE MODEL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS In 2011 Denver RAQC buys Optical Gas Imaging (OGI) Camera Found that not all vented gas from Condensate Tanks make it to the flare where VOC is controlled at 98% CDPHE adopts the concept of Capture Efficiency (CE) CE = 0.75 Only75% of the Condensate Tank Flash VOC emissions are controlled For controlled condensate tanks > 10x increase in VOC emissions Results in improved CAMx VOC model performance Perform numerous MM5 (~15) and WRF (~20) meteorological sensitivity tests to determine best performance configuration for simulating ozone with CAMx WRF produces better meteorological performance and, when used with CAMx, better ozone model performance than when MM5 meteorological inputs where used

11 SENSITIVITY MODELING USING THE MAY-AUG 2008 MODELING EPISODE Much improved ozone performance with WRF, link-based mobile source emissions and O&G capture efficiency July 10, 2008 highest ozone day

12 CURRENT DENVER OZONE MODELING ACTIVITIES TO ADDRESS THE 2008 OZONE NAAQS (75 PPB) March 2008 new ozone NAAQS of ppm (75 ppb) Fourth highest daily maximum 8 hour ozone averaged over 3 years July 20, 2012 Denver/North Front Range designated a Marginal ozone Nonattainment Area (NAAs) June 2013 EPA issues a proposed ozone SIP Requirements Rule in June 2013 Future attainment years: 2015 for Marginal NAAs (based on observations) 2018 for Moderate NAAs (based on observations) Marginal NAAs not required to perform ozone modeling for their SIP

13 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS FOR 2008 OZONE NAAQS December 23, 2014 Based on challenge by environmental groups, DC Circuit Court revokes parts of 2012 Implementation Rule February 13, 2015 EPA updates June 2013 SIP Requirements Rule: Marginal NAA attainment deadline of July 20, 2015: Means a Marginal NAA must attain ozone NAAQS based on observations (vs ) Attainment deadline of July 20, 2018 for Moderate NAAs Means Moderate NAA must attain based on observation (vs ) and model attainment year 2017 (vs. 2018)

14 TH HIGHEST DAILY MAXIMUM 8-HOUR OZONE (PPB)

15 HOUR OZONE DEIGN VALUES (PPB)

16 NEW REQUIREMENTS FOR DENVER/NFR NAA TO ADDRESS MARCH 2008 OZONE NAAQS Based on observations, Denver/NFR NAA does not attain the ozone NAAQS by June 20, 2015 Marginal attainment date as required Denver/NFR NAA will Bump Up to Moderate NAA by January 2016 New attainment date of June 20, 2018 Need to attain based on observation data Moderate NAA SIP due months after EPA determination SIP and implementation deadlines will be established in EPA rule Moderate Area SIP Requirements Modeled attainment demonstration by % Reasonable Further Progress (RFP) (15% VOC reduction ) RACT SIP, RACM, I/M, NSR, Contingency Measures

17 DENVER OZONE SIP MODELING CURRENT STATUS Using WSAQS/3SAQS 2011 modeling platform SMOKE modeling of CDPHE 2011 emissions On road mobile sources: EPA requires MOVES2014 be used. Use local specific (Colorado) fleet distributions and latest CB6 chemistry EPA will not release MOVES2014/CB6 until summer 2011 CAMx base case modeling in summer preliminary base case modeling by fall 2015 Preliminary 2017 ozone Design Value projections Decide next steps

18 QUESTIONS