Impacts of Climate Change in the Tropics. Mike Jones Botany Department School of Natural Sciences

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1 Impacts of Climate Change in the Tropics Mike Jones Botany Department School of Natural Sciences

2 The greenhouse effect

3 Climate Change 2007 The IPCC 4 th Assessment Report 2,500+ scientific reviewers 800+ contributing authors 450+ lead authors from 130+ countries 6 years work 4 volumes 1 Report

4 Atmospheric concentrations of important long-lived greenhouse gases. Source: IPCC, 2007

5 Changes in Mt. Kilimanjaro ice cap and snow cover over time Source: IPCC, 2007

6 Record of recent warming. Source: IPCC, 2007

7 Examples of regional impacts as warming occurs Source: IPCC, 2007

8 Relative vulnerability of coastal deltas Source: IPCC, 2007

9 IPCC conclusions Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and climate variability, a situation aggravated by the interaction of multiple stresses, occurring at various levels, and low adaptive capacity (high confidence). African farmers have developed several adaptation options to cope with current climate variability, but such adaptations may not be sufficient for future changes of climate (high confidence).

10 IPCC conclusions Agricultural production and food security (including access to food) in many African countries and regions are likely to be severely compromised by climate change and climate variability (high confidence). Climate change will aggravate the water stress currently faced by some countries, while some countries that currently do not experience water stress will become at risk of water stress (very high confidence).

11 IPCC conclusions Changes in a variety of ecosystems are already being detected, particularly in southern African ecosystems, at a faster rate than anticipated (very high confidence). Climate variability and change could result in low-lying lands being inundated, with resultant impacts on coastal settlements (high confidence). Human health, already compromised by a range of factors, could be further negatively impacted by climate change and climate variability, e.g., malaria in southern Africa and the East African highlands (high confidence).

12 Mitigation So far most discussion on tackling climate change has focussed on mitigation. Mitigation involves limiting emissions in order the lessen the severity of climate change. Even if we reduce GHG emissions now, some degree of climate change is inevitable and unstoppable. Carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for around a century.

13 Carbon sinks in the African jungle. Between 1968 and 2007 African forests stored 0.63 t C ha -1 yr -1 Global tropical average is 0.49 t C ha -1 yr -1 Two explanations: Forests recovering from disturbance Or Direct effects of rising CO 2

14 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degredation (REDD) Forest removal accounts for 20% of C emissions. Tropical forests account for 50% of landbased sinks. REDD is a UN financial programme to reduce emissions in developing countries.

15 Wetland Sinks -Papyrus swamp vegetation

16 Eddy Covariance Equipment. Sonic Anemometer Open Pathway Infra Red Gas Analyser Net Radiometer Quantum Sensor Wind Speed and Direction Temperature and Relative Humidity

17 EC Data - Diurnal CO 2 Flux in Papyrus CO2 Flux umol m -2 s C Release Respiration C Uptake Photosynthesis C Release Respiration Hour of Day

18 Adaptation Adaptation means reducing vulnerability to changes in the climate. It is the adjustment of a system to moderate the impacts of climate change, to take advantage of new opportunities or to cope with the consequences. Poverty has an impact on adaptive capacity. It means fewer resources to make adaptations. Compare the ability of the Netherlands and Bangladesh to adapt to sea level rise. Tackling poverty is essential if people are to have the capacity to adapt to climate change.