BP Energy Outlook 2018 edition

Transcription

1 BP Energy Outlook 218 edition Spencer Dale Group chief economist

2 Alternative scenarios Primary energy consumption by fuel Carbon emissions Billion toe Billion tonnes CO Renewables ET ICE ban Less RE gas push switch FT EFT Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Evolving transition (ET) Internal combustion engine ban (ICE ban) 1 Less gas switching Renewables push (RE push) Faster transition (FT) Even faster transition (EFT)

3 Alternative scenarios Primary energy consumption by fuel Carbon emissions Billion toe Billion tonnes CO Renewables ET ICE ban Less RE gas push switch FT EFT Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Evolving transition (ET) Internal combustion engine ban (ICE ban) 1 Less gas switching Renewables push (RE push) Faster transition (FT) Even faster transition (EFT)

4 Billion toe 2 Transport 1 1 Three windows on the energy transition Industry Non-combusted Buildings Primary energy demand End-use sector Region Fuel Other Africa Other Asia India China OECD Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 4

5 Economic backdrop % per annum GDP growth by region and factor 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% % 4% 3% 2% 1% % LNG Russian pipeline Conventional Productivity Population World China India Africa OECD Other

6 Billion toe 2 Transport 1 1 Three windows on the energy transition Industry Non-combusted Buildings Primary energy demand End-use sector Region Fuel Other Africa Other Asia India China OECD Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 6

7 Energy demand by sector Billion toe 2 Primary energy consumption by end use sector % per annum % Final energy consumption growth: non-combusted versus industry 1 Transport Industry Non-combusted Buildings 4% 3% Non-combusted Industry 1 2% 1% %

8 Energy demand in buildings Final energy consumption in buildings by fuel type Billion toe Oil Gas Coal Electricity

9 Energy demand in buildings and transport sector Final energy consumption in buildings by fuel type Billion toe Oil Gas Coal Electricity Contributions to transport energy consumption growth Billion toe Income per head Population growth Efficiency gains

10 Regional energy demand Primary energy consumption by region Billion toe Other Africa Other Asia India China OECD Primary energy growth and regional contributions % per annum 3.% 2.% 2.% 1.% 1.%.%.% %

11 Differences in the fuel mix across regions Billion toe Primary energy demand by fuel and region Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Renewables US EU China India Middle East 11

12 Billion toe 2 Transport 1 1 Three windows on the energy transition Industry Non-combusted Buildings Primary energy demand End-use sector Region Fuel Other Africa Other Asia India China OECD Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 12

13 Global energy by fuel Primary energy consumption by fuel Shares of primary energy Billion toe Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil % 4% 3% Oil Coal Hydro Gas Nuclear Renewables 2% 1% %

14 Diversified fuel mix Shares of primary energy 1% 8% 6% Oil Gas Coal Non-fossil 4% 2% %

15 Billion toe 2 Transport 1 1 Three windows on the energy transition Industry Non-combusted Buildings Primary energy demand End-use sector Region Fuel Other Africa Other Asia India China OECD Renewables Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil 1

16 Five key questions What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution? When is global oil demand likely to stop growing? Just how fast will renewable energy grow? How resilient is the outlook for natural gas? Is the transition to a lower carbon energy system happening fast enough? 16

17 Five key questions What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution? When is global oil demand likely to stop growing? Just how fast will renewable energy grow? How resilient is the outlook for natural gas? Is the transition to a lower carbon energy system happening fast enough? 17

18 Penetration of electric cars in 24

19 Penetration of electric cars in 24 Share of global car parc ~1% Share of Vkm ~3%

20 Electric cars, shared mobility and autonomy Trillion km Car kilometres by fuel type New mobility share of Vkm 4 Electricity 4% Private - autonomous 3 3 Gas Liquids 3% Shared - autonomous Shared - human driver 2 2 2% 1 1 1% %

21 Liquid fuel demand from passenger cars Mb/d Changes in liquids demand from cars: Growth in demand for travel Tightening in vehicle efficiency standards 2. Shared mobility EVs Switch to EVs Other gains in fuel efficiency

22 Global ban on internal-combustion engine (ICE) cars Share Electric car sales as a share of total car sales Share Share of total passenger Vkm powered by electricity 1% 1% Evolving transition Evolving transition 8% ICE ban 8% ICE ban 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% % %

23 Impact of ICE ban Mb/d Passenger cars liquids demand Evolving transition ICE ban Carbon emissions from energy Billion tonnes CO Evolving transition Even faster transition 216 Evolving transition ICE ban

24 Impact of ICE ban Passenger cars liquids demand Carbon emissions from energy Mb/d Billion tonnes CO Evolving transition ICE ban Evolving transition ICE ban Even faster transition 216 Evolving transition ICE ban

25 Five key questions What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution? When is global oil demand likely to stop growing? Just how fast will renewable energy grow? How resilient is the outlook for natural gas? Is the transition to a lower carbon energy system happening fast enough? 2

26 Demand for oil and other liquid fuels Mb/d Liquids demand Mb/d, average annual growth Liquids demand growth Cars Non-road Industry Power Trucks Non-combusted Buildings Power Industry Transport Buildings Non-combusted Total

27 Demand for oil and other liquid fuels Liquids demand Mb/d Evolving transition ICE ban Faster transition Even faster transition

28 Demand for oil and other liquid fuels Liquids demand Mb/d Evolving transition 4 ICE ban Faster transition 2 Even faster transition Supply with no investment (3% decline rate)

29 US tight oil: alternative scenarios Mb/d US tight oil production Number of US oil rigs (in the four main producing regions*) Evolving transition Evolving transition *Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara

30 US tight oil: alternative scenarios Mb/d US tight oil production Number of US oil rigs (in the four main producing regions*) Evolving transition Early peak Evolving transition Early peak *Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara

31 US tight oil: alternative scenarios Mb/d US tight oil production Number of US oil rigs (in the four main producing regions*) Greater resource Evolving transition Early peak Greater resource Evolving transition Early peak *Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara

32 Five key questions What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution? When is global oil demand likely to stop growing? Just how fast will renewable energy grow? How resilient is the outlook for natural gas? Is the transition to a lower carbon energy system happening fast enough? 32

33 Rapid growth in renewable energy Growth of renewable power TWh, average annual growth Pace of power market penetration Largest gains in market share over 2 years, %pts OECD China Other 2% 1% % Nuclear ( ) Renewables (21-24) 4 % Gas (198-21) % 33

34 Renewables push scenario 1% Renewables share of power growth % 6% 4% 2% % Evolving transition Renewables push 34

35 Renewables push scenario Renewables share of power growth Change in carbon intensity of power % % 8% -2% 6% -4% 4% -6% 2% -8% % Evolving transition Renewables push -1% Evolving transition Renewables push Even faster transition 3

36 Five key questions What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution? When is global oil demand likely to stop growing? Just how fast will renewable energy grow? How resilient is the outlook for natural gas? Is the transition to a lower carbon energy system happening fast enough? 36

37 Growth in natural gas demand Gas consumption by region Gas consumption by sector Bcf/d Bcf/d 7 6 N America China Middle East Africa Europe India & Other Asia CIS Other 7 6 Transport Power Industry Buildings Non-combusted

38 Possible risks to the outlook for natural gas Billion toe Gas demand increase Industry Transport Power Buildings Non-combusted 1. Switching. Other effects. Evolving transition Less gas switch 38

39 Possible risks to the outlook for natural gas Billion toe Gas demand increase Industry Transport Power Buildings Non-combusted Switching % per annum -1% % 1% 2% Evolving transition Less gas switch Renewables push Gas demand growth Evolving transition Less gas switch Other effects 39 Faster transition Even faster transition

40 Five key questions What have we learnt about electric cars and the mobility revolution? When is global oil demand likely to stop growing? Just how fast will renewable energy grow? How resilient is the outlook for natural gas? Is the transition to a lower carbon energy system happening fast enough? 4

41 Carbon emissions continue to rise in the ET scenario Carbon emissions Carbon emissions in 24: EFT versus ET scenario Billion tonnes CO 2 4 Billion tonnes CO 2 4 Energy intensity Fuel switching Evolving transition Faster transition 2 1 Power Other sectors CCUS Even faster transition Evolving transition Even faster transition 41

42 Impact of faster transition on global energy system Reductions in carbon emissions: EFT versus ET scenario Billion tonnes CO 2 in Billion toe 2 Primary energy consumption under different scenarios 24 Power CCUS Industry & Buildings 1 1 Renew. Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Transport 216 ET FT EFT 42

43 Conclusion Some aspects of energy transition seem relatively likely: global energy demand continues to grow driven by increasing prosperity slower growth as we learn to do more with less increasing abundance and diversification of energy supplies renewable energy growing in importance oil and gas continue to play a central role in the global energy system Other aspects remain far more uncertain: impact of EVs and autonomy in reshaping transport sector role of natural gas and renewables in lower carbon transition how will we achieve a more decisive break from past to achieve sharp fall in carbon emissions? 43

44 BP Energy Outlook 218 edition