Sustainable Energy - Regional Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean

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1 Sustainable Energy - Regional Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean Fernando Ferreira Executive Secretary Sustainable Energy for All: What Works and What Needs Fixing? May 15, 2014 Moscow, RUSSIA

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3 Content SE4ALL (sustainable energy for all) Universal Access to Modern Energy: Situation in the region Doubling the share of renewable energies: Status of Renewable Energy in the region Doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency Outlook: Energy Mix Simulation 2030: A Regional Feasible Scenario

4 SE4ALL UN Initiative Sources / footers

5 SE4ALL (sustainable energy for all) Sustainable Energy for all. Forecast horizon 2030 Universal Access to Modern Energy Improved health Improving agricultural productivity Empowerment of women Economic development Doubling the share of renewable energies Doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency Energy security and reduction of accounts in respect of imports Reduction of environmental impacts Fossil resources used more effectively Reduced costs for the end user Loss Reduction Source: UN Secretary General

6 SE4ALL: Universal Access to Modern Energy Situation in the region Sources / footers

7 Situation ALC - SE4ALL: Ensure Universal Access to Modern Energy Source: OLADE - SIEE - Data 2012

8 Situation ALC - SE4ALL: Ensure Universal Access to Modern Energy Average electricity coverage 90.34%(2012) Approximately 30 million people without access to electricity an additional power capacity of about 16,000 MW would be required Investment in generation costs Not to mention the cost of infrastructure transmission and distribution nor operating costs Source: OLADE SIEE

9 Situation ALC - SE4ALL: Ensure Universal Access to Modern Energy Although urbanization process has accelerated in the region, about 20% of the population lives in rural areas where the interconnection network is more complex. Source: World Bank, 2012 data

10 Situation ALC - SE4ALL: Ensure Universal Access to Modern Energy % of final biomass consumption in the residential sector Source: OLADE - SIEE - Data 2012

11 Situation ALC - SE4ALL: Ensure Universal Access to Modern Energy About 10 million people use biomass for cooking The World Health Organization estimates that pollution inside homes, dueto the inefficient use of biomass for cooking in the world could cause 1.5 million premature deaths per year until 2030; greater than that estimated for malaria, tuberculosis and HIV. Source: OLADE - SIEE, UNDP

12 Situation ALC - SE4ALL: Ensure Universal Access to Modern Energy Source: OLADE - SIEE - Data 2012

13 SE4ALL:Doubling the share of renewable energies Status of Renewable Energy in the region Sources / footers

14 Situation ALC - SE4ALL: Doubling the share of renewable energies Regional energy matrix vs. Global matrix: 2010 Source: OLADE - SIEE, IEA

15 Situation ALC - SE4ALL: Doubling the share of renewable energies Source: OLADE - SIEE, IEA

16 Situation ALC - SE4ALL: Doubling the share of renewable energies Hydro Potential and Capacity Installed Source: OLADE - SIEE - Data 2012

17 Situation ALC - SE4ALL: Doubling the share of renewable energies Potential and Installed Capacity of Wind and Geothermal Wind Potential (MW) Installed Capacity (MW) Installed % Argentina 200, % Brazil 142,000 3, % Chile 40, % Colombia 18, % Costa Rica % Cuba 14, % Ecuador % Honduras 1, % México 71,000 1, % Nicaragua N.D. 146 Perú 22, % Dominican Rep. N.D 33 Uruguay 3, % Venezuela 45, % LA&C 557,884 6, % Source: Wind: GWEC, 2011 data. Geothermal: GEA, 2011 data Geothermal Potential (MW) Installed Capacity (MW) Installed % Argentina 2, % Bolivia 2, % Brazil % Chile 3, % Colombia 2, % Costa Rica 2, % Ecuador 1, % El Salvador 2, % Grenada 1,110 0% Guatemala 3, % Honduras 990 0% Jamaica 100 0% México 40, % Nicaragua 3, % Panamá % Perú 2, % Venezuela % ALyC 70,195 1, %

18 Situation ALC - SE4ALL: Doubling the share of renewable energies Structure of Electricity Generation No predominant renewable generation Predominant renewable generation Source: OLADE - SIEE - Data 2011

19 SE4ALL: Doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency

20 SE4ALL (sustainable energy for all) Doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency Important area of opportunity in the region Slight institutions Current and reactive energy efficiency actions Implementing ISO CONTINENTE N CERTIFICACIONES EUROPA 1460 ASIA 239 CANADÁ Y USA 21 AMÉRICA LATINA 11 ÁFRICA 3 Total 1734 PAÍS N CERTIFICACIONES Argentina 2 Brasil 4 Chile 2 Costa Rica 1 México 1 Uruguay 1 Total 11 Source: ISO

21 Outlook: Energy Mix Simulation 2030: A Regional Feasible Scenario Sources / footers

22 Outlook ALC - SE4ALL: A Regional Feasible Scenario Process for simulation of a feasible regional scenario - Base Year 2011, Forecast horizon 2030: Simulation: Energy Efficiency Diversification of the matrix Other Policies Simulated energy matrix 2030 * Penetration of NG in generation * Increased generation with renewables (hydro, wind) * Replacement of residential consumption of biomass * Energy efficiency in transport and industry

23 Outlook ALC - SE4ALL: A Regional Feasible Scenario Duplication of the total energy supply: ,909 Mbep ,026 Mbep Matrix of simulated final consumption 2011 to 2030 Source: OLADE - SIEE, SAME Simulation

24 Outlook ALC - SE4ALL: A Regional Feasible Scenario Sectoral structure of final consumption 2011 and 2030 simulated Source: SAME Simulation

25 Outlook ALC - SE4ALL: A Regional Feasible Scenario Sectoral structure of final consumption 2011 and 2030 simulated Source: SAME Simulation

26 Outlook ALC - SE4ALL: A Regional Feasible Scenario Annual average emission factor of CO t CO2 /Kboe 276 t CO2/kbep Source: SAME Simulation

27 Outlook ALC - SE4ALL: A Regional Feasible Scenario Installed Electricity Generation Capacity by Technology Source: OLADE - SIEE, SAME Simulation

28 Outlook ALC - SE4ALL: A Regional Feasible Scenario Matrix of Power Generation by Source Source: OLADE - SIEE, SAME Simulation

29 Conclusions of the study Universal Access to Modern Energy: The need to increase power generation is noted by diversifying the sources, increase coverage and development of rural electrification programs There is a high biomass consumption in the residential sector, mainly for cooking, where it would be necessary the replacement with sources like LPG, natural gas and electricity Doubling the share of renewable energies: LAC has large potential of renewable energy that can be developed The Hydropower could become the best alternative to increase the rate of renewability in the region Abundant technological and financial resources are required to exploit renewable resources on a scale sufficient to meet the objectives of SE4ALL

30 Conclusions of the study Doubling the rate of energy efficiency There is a need and opportunity to implement measures mainly in the industrial and transportation sectors, which are the main consumers of the region. Other considerations: Optimize energy matrices can mean an increase in the average cost of energy production Affect social inclusion and poverty eradication initiatives Strengthening and consolidating political, legal and institutional frameworks aligned to commitment to sustainable development is required.

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