GLOBAL AND REGIONAL COAL DEMAND PERSPECTIVES TO 2030 AND BEYOND

Transcription

1 GLOBAL AND REGIONAL COAL DEMAND PERSPECTIVES TO 2030 AND BEYOND a WEC study for the 19 th WEC World Energy Congress, Sydney, 5 9 September 2004

2 The questions addressed: Within the global general energy context: 1. To what extent is coal needed up to 2030 and beyond? 2. To what extent is that coal sustainable, = meets demand and of environmental and developmental concerns? 3. What lessons could be drawn for the coal and associated industries and for governments at the global level?

3 The benchmarks: Sustainability of coal s contribution is gauged against three benchmarks: 1. Availability to meet demand 2. Accessibility and affordability for customers 3. Acceptability and compatibility with societal concerns

4 1. Availability: World coal demand will rise: + 53 % (IEA), +100 % (EU) till 2030 World coal demand projections bill. tce WEC/IIASA B WEC/IIASA C2 EU-WETO reference EU-WETO carbon case The main driver is electricity generation: in 2030, coal covers 45 % of world power needs Coal globalizes: rising share of internationally traded coal: 1970: 7.5 %, 2000: 16 % Coal reserves remain huge; depletion by 2030: coal 25 %, oil 84 %, gas 64 %

5 Coal s share in world energy supplies: %, % Projected world market share of coal for 2020 by IEA and WEC/IIASA as published in %

6 New regional supply pattern Regional breakdown of world coal demand, developing 63 industrialized Regional breakdown of world coal demand, developing 68 industrialized Regional coal demand WEC/IIASA market-based scenario B, of mill. tce OECD Dev. C. North Am. Latin Am. Sub-Sah. Africa Western Eu. CEE CIS Centrally planned Asia South Asia Other Pacific Pacific OECD World

7 2. Accessibility and affordability: coal s price competitiveness is growing: Graph 7: Actual and projected international fuel prices, US$/tce crude oil natural gas coal coal s main competitor till 2030: natural gas, thereafter perhaps new nuclear

8 due to productivity growth in mining: 5 to 10 %/year during the to 15 %/year, during the 1990s growth to continue due to rising labor productivity, restructuring, liberalization, technology transfer, growth of opencast versus underground mining Graph 2: Development of Productivity in the Hard Coal Mining Industry from 1985 to 2000 or 2001* Annual tonnes/ staff USA Canada Australia South-Africa Columbia ** * 2000 * 1985 figures not available ** incl. lignite Source: Association of German Coal I t due to higher efficiencies in power plants present world average: 32 % state of the art 42 to 25 % perspective: 50 to 53 %

9 3. Acceptability Coal utilization accommodates societal concerns: Fuels economic development Abates local/regional pollution Mitigates climate change raises combustion efficiency timeframe: now sequesters carbon: R D & D underway, timeframe: 2020 Eradicates energy poverty Broadens product range in developing countries, coal in 2030 covers 33 % of primary energy demand and 53 % of electricity generation; creates jobs, develops skills 2030: 72 % of world coal-based electricity generation expected to be with clean coal technologies (EU) 2040: 100 % deployment would avoid 7.5 % of world CO 2 emissions alternatives to cleaner fossil fuels require price increases equivalent to at least two oil shocks every ten years (WEC Drivers Study) IEA: by 2030, number of people with no or unreliable access to energy cut by half

10 Lessons: for governments Close illegal, dangerous mines Create attractive conditions for private sector investments Adopt and implement ILO Convention on Safety and Health in Mines (missing: Australia, Brazil, Colombia, China, India, Russia, Ukraine) Place emissions from coal in a more balanced perspective Acknowledge the contribution of coal to energy security Encourage efficient and clean use of coal (JI, CDM) Support R & D on carbon sequestration Assist developing countries in acquiring modern coal technology on preferential terms

11 for the coal and associated industries: Replicate good health and safety standards Facilitate local capacity building and technology transfer Promote local, coal-related projects Apply clean coal technologies proactively Undertake quality and environmental certification of facilities (ISO) Assist community development Launch local, national awareness campaigns Launch a voluntary global alliance to promote Sustainable development from coal

12 the message: Coal is not part of the problems of sustainable development. Coal is part of the solution.