BIEE Gas Seminar: Global Shifts in Gas Demand

Transcription

1 October 213 BIEE Gas Seminar: Global Shifts in Gas Demand Kai Dunker, Lead Economist Global Gas Markets

2 Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global economic growth, population growth, energy consumption, policy support for renewable energies and sources of energy supply. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or may occur in the future. Actual outcomes may differ depending on a variety of factors, including product supply, demand and pricing; political stability; general economic conditions; legal and regulatory developments; availability of new technologies; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this presentation. Energy Outlook 23 2 BP 213

3 Introduction Outlook 23: Natural Gas Outlook 23: Natural Gas - Europe Conclusion Appendix BP 213

4 Introduction Outlook 23: Natural Gas Outlook 23: Natural Gas - Europe Conclusion Appendix BP 213

5 Shale gas and global supply growth Gas production by type and region Bcf/d Bcf/d Shale gas production Non-OECD other Non-OECD shale OECD shale OECD other RoW China Europe & Eurasia Canada & Mexico US % of total (RHS) 18% 12% 6% Energy Outlook 23 % BP 213

6 Shale gas: regional growth Sources of gas supply, by region Bcf/d N. America Bcf/d EU Bcf/d China Net pipeline imports Net LNG imports Shale gas production Other domestic production Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

7 Gas trade and market integration LNG exports LNG diversification Bcf/d 8 2% 1 Suppliers per importer 6 4 % of total consumption (RHS) 15% 1% Customers per exporter 2 5% LNG % Energy Outlook BP 213

8 Global gas demand outlook Demand by region Demand by sector Bcf/d Bcf/d China 4 3 Other non- OECD 3 Power 2 Middle East 1 Other OECD N. America Other 1 Industry Transport Energy Outlook 23 8 BP 213

9 Gas demand relative to other fuels Transport demand by fuel Billion toe 3 Electricity 2 Gas Coal Biofuels 1 Oil - road World power generation Thousand TWh 4 Renewables 3 Hydro Nuclear 2 Coal 1 Gas Oil - non-road Oil Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

10 Introduction Outlook 23: Natural Gas Outlook 23: Natural Gas - Europe Conclusion Appendix Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

11 European demand outlook Bcf/d EU natural gas consumption Transport Power Industry Other Non-OECD OECD OECD EU power generation input mix Mtoe 9 Renew. Hydro 6 Nuclear 3 Coal Gas Coal Gas Oil Oil Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

12 European gas-coal competition EU power generation cost /MWh Gas Coal 2 Jul-1 Mar-11 Nov-11 Jul-12 Mar-13 Source: includes data from Platts, IHS McCloskey and IntercontinentalExchange BP Statistical Review of World Energy 213 EU natural gas power gen. decline 212 change, Mtoe Total Efficiency gains Coal switching Hydro & Nuclear Renewables Lower Power demand BP 213

13 Introduction Outlook 23: Natural Gas Outlook 23: Natural Gas - Europe Conclusion Appendix Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

14 Global gas balance Demand Supply Bcf/d Other non-oecd China 23 level OECD 35 3 Other OECD N. America Middle East Non-OECD OECD Non-OECD 211 Non-shale Shale Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

15 The End Thank you BP 213

16 Introduction Global energy trends Outlook 23: Natural Gas Appendix Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

17 Population, income and energy growth Billion 8 6 Population OECD Non-OECD 1 75 GDP Trillion $211 PPP OECD Non-OECD Billion toe 12 9 Primary energy OECD non-oecd Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

18 Industrialisation drives energy growth Billion toe By region Non- Non-OECD OECD OECD Energy Outlook 23 OECD Billion toe By primary use Power generation Industry 3 Other Transport Billion toe By fuel Coal Coal Gas Gas 3 Oil Oil *Includes biofuels Renew.* Hydro Nuclear BP 213

19 Emerging economies dominate energy production Billion toe Non-OECD 6 Non-OECD 3 OECD OECD Energy Outlook 23 Billion toe FSU S&C America N. America Middle East Europe Asia Pacific Africa BP 213

20 Transport Industry Other Power Transport Industry Other Power The power sector leads primary energy growth Billion toe Growth by sector and region, RoW Middle East China & India OECD Billion toe Growth by sector and fuel, Hydro Nuclear Renew. Electricity Gas Biofuels Oil Coal Final energy use Inputs to power Final energy use Inputs to power Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

21 Fuel shares and energy prices Shares of world primary energy $211/boe Energy prices 5% Oil 4% Coal 3% 2% Gas 1% Hydro % Nuclear Renewables* *Includes biofuels Energy Outlook Oil - Brent Gas - basket Coal - basket BP 213

22 Energy efficiency improvements Energy intensity by region Energy and GDP Toe per thousand $211 GDP (PPP) Billion toe Trillion $211 (PPP).5 US China GDP (RHS).1 World 5 1 EU* Energy *Euro4 (France, Italy, Germany, UK) pre-197 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

23 Energy supply growth Demand Supply Billion toe level Renew.* Hydro Nuclear 14 Other *Includes biofuels Tight Other Shale 211 Oil Natural gas Coal 211 OECD Non- OECD Nonfossil Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

24 US tight oil and shale gas: infrastructure requirements Thousands Onshore oil & gas rigs 211 Thousands Oil wells drilled and output 212* Output (RHS) Mb/d Energy Outlook 23 Bakken Canada Colombia *Annualised from 1Q-3Q data BP 213

25 Asia Pacific N. America S. & C. America Africa Europe & Eurasia Middle East Asia Pacific N. America S. & C. America Africa Europe & Eurasia Middle East Shale gas and tight oil: resources and production Billion toe Current resources Production in 23 Gas Oil Billion toe Resources data OECD/IEA 212 Energy Outlook 23 BP 213

26 Shale gas uncertainties Share of global supply growth Range of shale gas forecasts % Bcf/d 75% Shale gas 12 1 Range BP 5% % 4 2 % Energy Outlook 23 BP 213