2011 Integrated Resource Plan

Transcription

1 September 20, Integrated Resource Plan Mark Stokes

2 IRP Advisory Council Meets monthly during the preparation of the IRP For the 2011 IRP there were nine monthly meetings, two portfolio design workshops, and a day-long resource field trip The public is encouraged to attend and participate in the meetings IRP Advisory Council Representatives Include: Customer Representatives Agriculture Industry Boise State University Heinz Frozen Foods Idaho National Laboratory Micron Simplot Regulatory Commissions Idaho PUC Oregon PUC Public Interest Representatives Boise Metro Chamber of Commerce Idaho Conservation League Idaho Department of Commerce Idaho Office of Energy Resources Idaho Legislature Northwest Power and Conservation Council Snake River Alliance Oil and Gas Industry Advisor Water Issues Advisor

3 Average Monthly Energy Load Forecast (amw) Forecast growth of 29 amw/year (1.4%)

4 Peak-Hour Load Forecast (MW) Forecast growth of 69 amw/year (1.8%)

5 Carbon Regulation/Adder

6 IRP Natural Gas Price Forecast

7 Demand Response Programs Irrigation Peak Rewards FlexPeak Management AC Cool Credit

8 Demand Response Programs 2011 IRP determined an optimal amount of demand response based on need and planned resources

9 Energy Efficiency Programs

10 New Resource Costs - $/MWh

11 New Resource Costs $/MW of Peak-Hour Capacity

12 2011 IRP Preferred Portfolio

13 Current and Future Fuel Mix

14 Boardman to Hemingway Planned completion date of June 2016 Updated cost estimate - $820 million ($634 million in 2009 IRP) Increase in AFUDC (5.00% to 7.65%) More certainty on route resulting in increased distance Structure types (H-frame vs. lattice) Commodity price increases NEPA process taking longer than expected Waiting on EFSC Project Order Finalizing routes to be analyzed in draft EIS Draft EIS expected by end of 2012 Presently holding discussions with three other transmission providers for the joint development of the B2H project Parties executed a Non-Disclosure Agreement on August 4, 2011

15 Boardman to Hemingway Tipping Point Analysis

16 Gateway West Draft EIS released in August ,100 pages 17 BLM-sponsored, public, open-house meetings Continuing to evaluate the draft EIS Comments due October 31 st Cost estimate of $600 million (IPC share) Preferred portfolio has just enough ATC w/o Gateway West Concerns if ATC will still be available in 2021 if needed Continuing to participate in the project to preserve options Not asking for OPUC acknowledgement of Gateway West

17 Langley Gulch 300 MW CCCT Planned to be in service by June 2012

18 Environmental Compliance Cost Analysis/Comparison Estimated range of Idaho Power s share of the environmental compliance costs for the Jim Bridger and Valmy plants, and the corresponding impact on production costs Forecasted amounts included in this presentation were derived solely for purposes of providing an estimate of environmental compliance expenses in the context of the 2011 IRP and are subject to a number of conditions and uncertainties. Actual expenses could deviate materially from the amounts set forth herein. The figures in this worksheet should not be construed as confirming, altering, or updating any environmental compliance cost estimates set forth in any other report prepared by Idaho Power Company, including its current and future reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

19 Environmental Compliance Carbon Adder Tipping Point Analysis Forecasted amounts included in this presentation were derived solely for purposes of providing an estimate of environmental compliance expenses in the context of the 2011 IRP and are subject to a number of conditions and uncertainties. Actual expenses could deviate materially from the amounts set forth herein. The figures in this worksheet should not be construed as confirming, altering, or updating any environmental compliance cost estimates set forth in any other report prepared by Idaho Power Company, including its current and future reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

20 Environmental Compliance Carbon Adder Tipping Point Analysis Forecasted amounts included in this presentation were derived solely for purposes of providing an estimate of environmental compliance expenses in the context of the 2011 IRP and are subject to a number of conditions and uncertainties. Actual expenses could deviate materially from the amounts set forth herein. The figures in this worksheet should not be construed as confirming, altering, or updating any environmental compliance cost estimates set forth in any other report prepared by Idaho Power Company, including its current and future reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

21 New Large Loads Idaho Power s ability to serve new large loads is limited as growth in summertime peak demand continues to drive the need for additional resources Analysis performed to determine the cost of building additional natural gas-fired peaking capacity that could be used to serve new large loads Analysis assumes 80 MW of capacity from a SCCT is added to Idaho Power s resource portfolio in The analysis also assumes the additional capacity is built and no new large load materializes (worst case) NPV revenue requirement associated with the cost of adding the additional 80 MW of capacity would be $60 million Additional capacity would be added to the peak-hour load and resource balance and there would not be a specific resource built to meet this need

22 Solar Demonstration Project Project intended to comply with the Oregon solar capacity standard (ORS /Order No ) Project size of 500 kw to 1 MW depending on RFP responses and location requirements under ORS IRP Advisory Council members wanted to see research and development incorporated into the project Estimated project cost from $2 $4 million Require approximately 5 10 acres of land Issue a Request For Proposals (RFP) by end of 2011 Anticipate on-line date could be as early as the end of 2012, but most likely in early 2013

23 2011 Integrated Resource Plan Questions?