Dynamic Coupling Development of Regional Socio-economy-Energy-Environment in China

Transcription

1 Dynamic Coupling Development of Regional Socio-economy-Energy-Environment in China HONG FANG School of Economics and Management Beihang University June 21, 2017

2 Research Questions In the 21st century,the global is facing many ecological problems, such as ecological environment deterioration, scarcity of resources, and energy crisis. China faces a dilemma to reconcile its economy, energy system and environmental security. Energy Environ ment Economy Hot issues in China

3 Billion dollars Research Questions China s current national policies promote high levels of economic growth, transforming China into a world factory, but at a high cost in terms of energy and the environment. Source: World Bank GDP GDP in China

4 Research Questions Total primary energy consumption in China

5 % Research Questions Energy consumption structure in China Coal dominates current energy consumption in China Coal Petroleum Natrual Gas Others Energy Composition in China Source: China Statistical Yearbook, 2016

6 Research Questions Source: U.S. energy Information Administration

7 Coal reserves(bt) Petroleum reserves(bt) Research Questions Coal and petroleum reserves in China Coal Petroleum Source:

8 Environmental pollutions in China Energy in China is still largely fossilfuel based, there are many key environmental impacts attributable to energy production and consumption, including anthropogenic climate change, particulate emissions and water pollution. Energy production and consumption have become one of the main reasons for environmental deterioration in China. In recent years, serious haze has become the dominant environmental issue for not only the government, but also the Chinese public. Most air pollution in China results from coal combustion. Industrial sewage in north China in April 2017 Air pollutions in Qianan, Hebei Province, China

9 sustainable development It has been a key problem coordinating the relationship between economy, energy and environment to ensure the sustainable development of human society in the world. China s growth challenges are discussed as an example of challenges more broadly faced in the developing world. China s success or failure in achieving a sustainable developmental pattern will inevitably have a significant influence on the global environment. sustainable development has been put forward for more than 20 years in China, While the improvement of environment and energy is no follow up to the development of the economy and society.

10 Theory and model of coupled coordination Coupling represents the concept of physics in the beginning, that is, the process of energy and information transferring conducted by circuit components through interaction, mutual influence, division of labor, which has been widely used in other areas later. Coupling describes the phenomenon that the system or factors that affect each other, which represents an interdependent dynamic-relationship between the various elements within the system. Therefore, the coupling is also the overall evolution process from simple to complex, from disorder to order, from lowlevel coordination to advanced coordination and symbiosis on the basis of coordination, harmony and consistency of the systems.

11 Theory and model of coupled coordination According to the theory of system coupling and coordinated development, the development of the same area in different periods can be identified from the development state of different regions at the same time in a large enough space. Assuming that the time is long enough and the space is large enough, the combination of social economy, energy, and environment interactions will change dynamically and temporally. According to this, the deduction of relationship between the regional socio-economy, energy and ecological environment can be applied to analyze the interaction laws between these three factors. Therefore, the Chinese regional Socio-economy Energy Environment (SEE) system can be built based on this theory, which promotes the economic sustainable development of Chinese regional economy. The SEE system is a complex system composed of socio-economy, energy and environment subsystems with network, dynamic, diversity, complexity, nonlinearity, high degree of uncertainty and so on. It is the basis of sustainable development strategy. The energy system is the link between the socio-economy system and environment system. The energy comes from the environment, and is applied in the socio-economic system.

12 Theory and model of coupled coordination The exchange and implementation process of materials and information between systems

13 Regional SEE evaluation index system

14 Weight determination

15 Coupled coordination model Coupled and coordinated development is a virtuous cycle to achieve the system s overall evolution of goals, as well as the mutual cooperation, mutual cooperation, mutual promotion among different subsystems or sub-elements. The cycling condition is often measured by coupling coordination degree. On the basis of the above, the maximum and minimum values are used to standardize the original data, and then multiplied by the weight value w j to obtain the socioeconomy comprehensive evaluation index (SE), energy comprehensive evaluation index(ey) and environment comprehensive evaluation index (ET) of different provinces during The coupling coordination degree between the three factors is calculated as follows:

16 Coupled coordination model

17 Classification criterion of coupling Table 2. the system coupling coordination situation is classified into three levels. First Level Degree of Coupling Second Level Third Level(Basic Types) Coordinated development Transition Recession High quality coordination coupling High level coordination coupling Intermediate coordination coupling Primary coordination coupling Barely coordination coupling Nearly dissonance coupling Mild dissonance coupling Moderate dissonance coupling Severe dissonance coupling Extreme dissonance coupling 1If m=min(se,ey,et), SEE coupling is m lagged 2If SE=EY=ET, SEE coupling is synchronization type

18 Results :Comprehensive evaluation index values The socio-economy comprehensive evaluation index The environment comprehensive evaluation index The energy comprehensive evaluation index Eastern China Central China Western China

19 Comprehensive values of SEE in each province in China Scio-economy Degree of deviation: Eastern China>Western China> Central China

20 Comprehensive values of SEE in each province in China Energy Degree of deviation: Eastern China>Western China> Central China

21 Comprehensive values of SEE in each province in China Environment Degree of deviation: Eastern China>Western China> Central China

22 SEE coupling degree in the three regions in China Eastern China Central China Western China

23 SEE coupling degree in each province in China Regions Average Eastern China Central China Western China Beijing Tianjin Hebei Liaoning Shanghai Jiangsu Zhejiang Fujian Shandong Guangdong Hainan Shanxi Jilin Heilongjiang Anhui Jiangxi Henan Hubei Hunan Neimenggu Guangxi Chongqing Sichuan Guizhou Yunnan Shannxi Gansu Qinghai Ningxia Xinjiang

24 Basic type in every province Furthermore, comparing the average comprehensive index values between SEE of each province, we find that: in the east, the coupling relationship belongs to environment lagged in Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai; and there are some others whose coupling relationship pertains to socio-economy lagged, including Hebei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong and Hainan; while, the couplings in Liaoning, Jiangsu and Guangdong belong to socio-economy and environment lagged simultaneously. in the central and western provinces, all are socio-economy lagged.

25 Conclusions The comprehensive index values changes of socio-economy and environment present a stable situation; the values of energy fluctuate, but, they also maintain a relatively stability. Although the changes of the three kinds of index have a positive or negative correlation, their common guidance to improving their level of development is the same, which will help them keep coordinating. There are significant differences between regions and regions inside regardless of the three types of composite index or coupling degree. It reveals that the regional development gap in China is still evident in recent years.

26 Policy Implications Formulating policies combining with the local conditions and comparative advantage, when exploring the coupling development path.

27 Policy Implications In eastern China guide the population flow through industrial transfer and talent attraction policies; eliminate the small and medium enterprises that are energy-intensive or highly polluting and have excess production capacity; develop the knowledge-intensive industries; promote energy conservation and emissions reduction technologies.

28 Policy Implications In central and western China further promote the implementation of the strategies of the Mid-China Rising and Western Development; improve the investment environment and give more favorable investment policies to small and mediumsized enterprises; promote the application of energy conservation and emissions reduction technology ; develop clean energy.

29 Thank You!