THE STRUGGLE FOR NATURAL RESOURCES

Transcription

1 THE STRUGGLE FOR NATURAL RESOURCES Sten Nilsson International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Risk Kollegium, Stockholm, March 10, 2010

2 A biosphere shaped by humanity Source: Karl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Center, 2008 (Presentation at IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria)

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5 World GDP per capita in dollars during the 20th century Source:

6 Source: Menzel, 2005

7 Source: Menzel, 2005

8 Composition of the global middle class in 2000 and 2030 (%) Population Income Population Income Poor (per capita income below average of Brazil) Middle class (per capita income between Brazil and Italy) Rich (per capita income at or above average of Italy) Source: Bussolo et al., The World Bank, 2008

9 WHAT IS THE STATUS OF OUR NATURAL RESOURCES?

10 Oceans Some 45 million ha of oceans in coastal areas are depleted from oxygen Some 70% of the world s coral reefs are dead or dying The number of fish species has declined by 50% during the last 50 years There are billion tons of methane stored at the bottom of oceans. At a global warming of 6 degrees the methane will escape At an explosion of the methane is possible with a destructive power equivalent to 1000 times of the world s current stock of nuclear weapons

11 COLLAPSE OF ATLANTIC COD STOCKS off the East Coast of Newfoundland, 1992 Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (

12 EXPLOITATION OF FISH STOCKS OR SPECIES Source: adapted from FAO, 2005a

13 EVOLUTIONARY SUSTAINABILITY Initial composition After fishing After reproduction

14 Source: Rodell et al., Nature, 2009

15 AREAS OF RAPID LAND COVER CHANGE Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005b

16 Forests During the last 200 years some 80% of the forests originally covering the Earth have been cleared, fragmented or degenerated Half of the world s original tropical forests have been cleared or degenerated Between 1990 and 2005 there was a net loss of the forest area of 3% The yearly net loss of forest area is about 7.5 million ha currently

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18 BIOFUEL PRODUCTION Source: Karl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Center, 2008 (Presentation at IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria)

19 AGRESSIVE POLICIES USA - 20 billion liters of biofuels in billion liters of biofuels in million tons wood consumption for energy in 2012 and 200 million tons in 2022 CHINA - by 2020, renewables account for 15% of all energy consumption - build biomass energy plans by 2020 (6 per month) - establish 13.3 million ha of new plantations - pellets targets from 2 million tpy to 50 million tpy by 2020 EU - by 2020, 20% of total energy consumption from renewables - a wood deficit of million m3 per year - or 17.5 million ha of agricultural land GLOBAL - deficit of productive land in 2030, some 300 million ha

20 Nitrogen Loading is already damaging the biosphere Source: Galloway et al., Science, 2008 (

21 Soils and Agriculture Some 30% of the farmland classified as seriously degraded (lost 50% of its productivity) About 30% of the world s crop lands have been abandoned during the last 40 years due to soil erosion It takes 200 to 1000 years to form 2.5 cm of new top soil Around 20% of the world s breeds of husbandry are at risk of extinction with dramatic genetic losses

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23 Urbanization Urbanization affects land changes somewhere else through transformations of urban-rural linkages Urban inhabitants in the Baltic sea watershed depend on forests, agriculture, wetlands, and marine systems that constitute an area about 1000 times larger than that of the urban area proper ( Folke et al, 1997)

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25 Population and natural resources Platon (470 BC) A suitable total for the numbers of citizens cannot be fixed without considering the land Von Carlowitz (1713) We cannot act against nature but only with it (Sylvicultura oeconomica the very first sustainability concept) Antoni van Leewenhock (1679) Earth s maximum number of people 13.4 billion Malthus ( ) billion Ravensteiner (1891) 6 billion Cohen (1995, literature revue) 1 to 1000 billion

26 Measures The biophysical carrying capacity is the maximum population that can be supported by the resources of the planet at a given level of technology The social carrying capacity is the biophysical carrying capacity within a given social organization, including patterns of consumption and trade The sustainable human population is a function of net productivity divided by per capita demand

27 Measures Ecological footprint represents the land area necessary to sustain current levels of resource consumption and waste discharge by a given population (Wackernagel, 1994 and Rees, 1996) Planetary boundaries define the safe operating space for humanity with respect to the earth system s biophysical subsystems or processes (Rockstrom et al., 2009) Net Primary Production is the rate ecosystems produce net chemical energy (respiration deducted)

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30 THE ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT Source:

31 BIOLOGICAL CAPACITY PER PERSON, 1961 AND 2006 Source:

32 ECOLOGICAL CREDITOR AND DEBTOR COUNTRIES, 1961 AND 2006 COMPARISON OF ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT OF CONSUMPTION WITH DOMESTIC BIOCAPACITY Source:

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35 NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION Source: Haberl et al., PNAS, 2008; Erb et al., Ecol. Econ., 2009 (

36 Caution on carrying capacity, ecological footprint, etc. The Earth s human carrying capacity depends upon complex interactions between a vast number of conditions and cannot be characterized by simple monotonic decline of the natural capital as the number of humans increase (Robinson 1992, Cohen 1995) The complex of socio-economic and bio-physical drivers devise the ecological footprint (Lambin et al, 2001) The current measures are too Malthusian and eco-centric oriented People, dislocations, energy, economy, housing, infrastructure, water, transportation, communication etc have to be taken into account There are also ecological limitations in the footprint water flow, freshwater use, air polutantants, non-renewable resources etc are not included Van den Bergh and Verbruggen (1999), Fiala (2008), European Commission (2008)

37 Source: Peduzzi, 2005 DEGENERATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES

38 COST OF DAMAGE TO ENVIRONMENT BY BUSINESS SECTORS

39 Source: Brian Walker, et al., Science, Sept. 14, 2009 INTERDEPENDENCIES

40 Courtesy: Carl Folke

41 Courtesy: Carl Folke

42 Population Growth Is Population the Elephant in the Room? Will we have a Demographic Winter? Is the party over?

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44 1 April 2009 Source: