Development trajectory of energy consumption and carbon emissions in developing countries

Transcription

1 Ar Polluton XIV 667 Development trajectory of energy consumpton and carbon emssons n developng countres A. Dela Cruz Generosa & T. Fujta Graduate School of Economcs, Kyushu Unversty, Japan Abstract Ths paper uses a complete decomposton model to study cross-country comparson of development trajectores of energy utlzaton and carbon emssons n developng economes. Varaton n total energy consumpton and carbon emssons s domnated by economc actvty effect n 8 developng countres from 98 to. Country-specfc contrbuton and comparatve ntensty analyss reveal that mprovements n energy effcency can be accompaned by a slower swtch to cleaner or less carbon ntensve fuels. Keywords: decomposton, energy effcency, carbon ntensty, fuel-swtchng. Introducton Clmate change mtgaton requres broader and meanngful partcpaton of all countres. However, most developng countres reman reluctant to coordnate polces and commtment to global mtgaton effort. Although the Kyoto Protocol suggests common but dfferentated responsbltes [] from all countres, whether developng countres are able to engage n emssons reducton strategy s stll open to debate. In ths paper, we use a decomposton model ntroduced by Sun [] to explan the sources of varaton n energy consumpton and carbon emssons n an expanded data set of 8 developng economes. Unlke the usual end-tme perod comparson n the lterature, we compare annual values to a base year. As n Luukkanen and Kavo-oja [, 4] and Lse [5], we contnue analyss on the dynamcs of energy use and carbon emssons usng the Kyoto prescrbed 99 base year. An analyss on the devaton from the baselne perod contrbutes n desgnng and plannng clmate change strateges and polces at the natonal level, and n search for more meanngful partcpaton of developng countres at an nternatonal level. WIT Transactons on Ecology and the Envronment, Vol 86, 6 WIT Press ISSN 7454 (on-lne) do:.495/air666

2 668 Ar Polluton XIV We proceed as follows. Secton presents the decomposton model and data used n the analyss. Secton dscusses the result from the analyss conducted from 98. The fnal secton summarzes the results and concludes. Data and methodology Ths secton presents the decomposton model and descrbes the data used to provde comparson of the development of aggregate energy use and carbon emssons. Our three-factor model of energy consumpton s: E t = Qt eit s t or E t = Q t eit st where subscrpt refers to a partcular country/ ncome-group and s = Q Q s the share of country to total producton Q t = n Qt. Actvty effect(q) ndcates energy demand due to economc actvty; ntensty effect(ei) reveals technologcal change n then producton system and; structure effect(s) reflects a country s share n total producton. Through tme [,t], the change n energy consumpton E = E t E, where superscrpt refers to the 99 baseyear value and t refers to annual values, s nfluenced by the followng effects: EQ t = Q ei s + Q (ei s + s ei )+ Q s ei, t = Q Es t = Q s ei + ei (s Q + Q s )+ Q s ei, ei s + s (ei Q + Q ei )+ Q s ei, whch s an exact decomposton so that E = EQ t + t + Es t. Analogously, we wrte the decomposton model for carbon emssons as follows: CQ t = Q ci s + Q (ci s + s ci )+ Q s ci, t = Q Cs t = Q s ci + ci (s Q + Q s )+ Q s ci, ci s + s (ci Q + Q ci )+ Q s ci. Thus, the total change n carbon emssons s C = CQ t + t + Cs t. To descrbe fuel-swtchng scenaro n developng countres, analyss proceeds wth evaluaton of country-specfc contrbutons to total change n energy ntensty and carbon ntensty: ei country = s o ei + ei s + ei s, () WIT Transactons on Ecology and the Envronment, Vol 86, 6 WIT Press ISSN 7454 (on-lne)

3 Ar Polluton XIV 669 ci country = s o ci + ci s + ci s. () Eqns. () and () are expressed as percentage relatve to 99 values. Here, we defne energy (carbon) ntensty as the nverse of the rato of economc outcome Q and energy nput E (carbon emssons C).. Data descrpton Analyss on the factors explanng varaton n energy consumpton and carbon emssons covers 8 developng countres from 98. To mnmze statstcal nfluence on all other economes ncluded n the study, we sngle-out economcally and geographcally larger countres lke Argentna, Brazl, Chna, Inda, Mexco and South Afrca as key developng countres. The remanng 77 countres are then classfed accordng to three ncome categores. We base our ncome-groups from World Bank s Gross Natonal Income (GNI)per capta-based country classfcatons of low-ncome and mddle ncome economes. We nclude 6 countres n the low-ncome (LY) group, and economes n the lower-mddle ncome (LMY) and upper-mddle ncome (UMY) groups. We use gross domestc product (GDP) as proxy varable for economc output Q. GDP of each country whch are measured n foregn currency unts are converted to U.S. dollars usng year annual average foregn currency market exchange rates. Energy consumpton s n Brtsh thermal unts (Btu) per U.S. dollar exchange rates. Carbon emssons are n metrc tons carbon equvalent (mtce) per thousand U.S. dollar exchange rates. All data from the Internatonal Energy Annual (IEA) statstcs are macroeconomc and country level. Indvdual countres are treated as sectors n the equatons n Secton and the economc outcome Q s the total sum of GDPs. Interpretaton of results Decomposng energy consumpton and carbon emssons from 98 reveals that actvty effect domnantly explan varaton n energy consumpton and carbon emssons n 8 developng countres.. Income groups and key developng countres show sharp dvergence of actvty effect from ntensty and structural effects on varaton n carbon emssons. Usng a normalzed scale, we present the result of decomposng the sources of varaton n energy consumpton and carbon emssons.. Varaton n energy consumpton Fgure shows that economc growth has been exertng pressure on energy nput n the producton sectors of developng countres. Intensty effect on energy consumpton suggests declne n energy content of a dollar of GDP declnes through tme by early 99. Structural effect shows an ndetermnate effect on energy consumpton changes n the 99s. Fgure reports that Chna, Inda and Brazl con- WIT Transactons on Ecology and the Envronment, Vol 86, 6 WIT Press ISSN 7454 (on-lne)

4 67 Ar Polluton XIV EQ CQ Btu ES - - Mtce CS - - Fgure : Decomposton of energy consumpton and CO emssons. trbute more to total change n energy consumpton compared to other key developng countres whle changes n lower-ncome economes (LMY) have the greatest mpact on total energy use among ncome groups. Btu.E+8.E+8.E+8.E+.E+8 -.E+8 LY LMY UMY Btu.E+7.5E+7.E+7 5.E+6.E+ -5.E+6.E+7.5E+7 Argentna Brazl Chna Inda Mexco South Afrca Fgure : Contrbuton to total change n energy consumpton.. Varaton n carbon emssons Actvty effect also domnantlyexplans varaton n carbon emssons n the developng regon. Result on domnant actvty effect n Fgure on varaton n energy consumpton supports fndngs on ncreasng emssons from prmary energy sources (.e fossl fuels) wth GDP. Economc growth tends have postve nfluence n explanng contnuous ncrease n emssons from prmary energy consumpton for the past two decades. Heavy consumers of energy are also heavy emtters of carbon doxde. Although all the key developng countres show ncreasng contrbutons to total change n carbon emsson, Fgure shows that Chna, Inda, and WIT Transactons on Ecology and the Envronment, Vol 86, 6 WIT Press ISSN 7454 (on-lne)

5 Ar Polluton XIV 67 Mtce.6E+7.E+7 8.E+6 4.E+6.E+ -4.E+6-8.E+6 LY LMY UMY Mtce, ths 4 - Argentna Brazl Chna Inda Mexco South Afrca Fgure : Contrbuton to total change n carbon emssons. Brazl have greater contrbuton to carbon emssons dynamcs. The left panel of Fgure shows declnng contrbuton to changes n total carbon emssons from ncome groups. However, we observe rsng postve contrbutons to total changes n emssons from LMY group between 99 and.. Comparatve ntensty Ths secton focuses on fuel-swtchng n macroeconomc producton of developng economes. Fuel-swtchng refers to the dfference between relatve percentage change n energy and carbon ntenstes. Fgure 4 shows an ncreasng and then decreasng pattern n ntensty effect on aggregate energy and carbon emssons. Post-baseyear scenaro suggests mprovng technologcal status and swtchng to cleaner fuels n macroeconomc producton. CO Intensty Btu Energy Intensty - Mtce - Fgure 4: Aggregate ntensty effect. WIT Transactons on Ecology and the Envronment, Vol 86, 6 WIT Press ISSN 7454 (on-lne)

6 67 Ar Polluton XIV Relatve % Low Income Lower-Mddle Income Upper-Mddle Income Fgure 5: Comparatve ntensty effect by ncome group... Income groups Intensty effect on energy and carbon from LY group s rsng n the 98s but eventually declnes n the 99s. However, we see Fgure 5 that percentage change n carbon ntensty rses above energy ntensty suggestng no marked swtch to less carbon emttng fuel n low-ncome economes. Devaton from 99 level n carbon emssons than n energy consumpton s greater from LMY group n the 98s. Energy consumpton and carbon emssons ncreased by around % and %, respectvely. Comparatve analyss n Fgure 5 shows that energy nput and carbon doxde content of per unt of GDP n LMY group of countres stll reman hgh relatve to the two other ncome-groups. UMY group experence ncreasng trend n the technology factor between 98 and 995. Varaton n ntensty effects peak at approxmately 4% and % for energy consumpton and carbon emssons between 99 and, respectvely... Key developng economes The ndcators of energy effcency and fuel-swtchng do not dffer sgnfcantly n key developng countres. Although the ndcators tend to decrease, carbon ntensty n these economes tends to rse above energy ntensty. Results n Fgures 5 and 6 show that relatve to 99 level, most key developng countres and ncome groups experence greater percentage change n ntensty factor on carbon emssons than on energy consumpton. Developng countres have been heavy on energy demand and carbon emssons but have been traversng a lghter energy and carbon paths n the 99s to early s. Fgure 6 reveals that Argentna s ntensty effect on total energy and carbon emssons s declnng. Change n ntenstes relatve to other key countres s also declnng n Brazl. Although the country s becomng energy effcent and less-carbon ntensve n the 99s, ts ntensty effect relatve to 99 levels ndcate that relatve percentage change n ntensty effect on carbon emssons s stll greater. We fnd Chna becomng less energy and carbon ntensve. Percentage declne n ntensty effect on carbon emssons s greater suggestng swtch to WIT Transactons on Ecology and the Envronment, Vol 86, 6 WIT Press ISSN 7454 (on-lne)

7 Ar Polluton XIV 67 less carbon-emttng and effcent energy source. In Inda, favorable energy effcency performance s accompaned by postve percentage change n ntensty effect on carbon emssons. Unlke Inda, Mexco s showng favorable performance n energy utlzaton and swtch to less carbon ntensve fuels. Ths result on lghter producton structure n Mexcan economy s smlar wth observatons n Luukkannen and Kav-oja [] and Aguayo and Gallagher [6]. South Afrca also show the same downward trend n ts comparatve ntenstes. Post-baselne ntensty effect scenaro suggests South Afrca to have a much envronment-senstve energy utlzaton path. However, the country s economc recesson n the early 99 can be a contrbutng factor n declnng ntensty effects [, 7]... Fuel-swtchng Fuel-swtchng by ncome group n Fgure 7 and by key countres n Fgure 8 show that between md98s and early 99, ntensty effect on energy and emssons s declnng. However, recall n Secton. that mprovements n energy effcency can be accompaned by slower swtch to cleaner or less carbon-ntensve fuels. In Sun [8], declnng energy ntensty maybe due to restrcted utlzaton of combustble renewables and wastes n the measurement of prmary energy consumpton. Fgure 7 shows that low-ncome economes are stll copng wth decarbonzaton of ts energy consumpton. Among key developng countres, Chna heads to a clear shft to less-carbon ntensve fuel. Fgure 8 affrms that Inda and Brazl are stll more carbon ntensve compared wth other key developng countres. Despte fallng ntenstes, most key countres are stll strugglng to make ther producton sector more energy effcent and less carbon-ntensve. Argentna Brazl Chna Inda Mexco South Afrca Fgure 6: Comparatve ntensty effect n key countres (n relatve %). WIT Transactons on Ecology and the Envronment, Vol 86, 6 WIT Press ISSN 7454 (on-lne)

8 674 Ar Polluton XIV Relatve % Developng Country-Group Relatve % 5 4 LMY LY UMY - -4 Fgure 7: Fuel-swtchng n aggregate and by ncome group.. Argentna 4 Brazl.4 Chna Inda Mexco South Afrca Fgure 8: Fuel-swtchng n key developng countres (n relatve %). 4 Summary and concluson Results suggest that developng economes are stll copng wth decarbonzaton of ther energy consumpton. From 98, varaton n energy consumpton and carbon doxde emssons s domnated by actvty effect on energy utlzaton. Intensty effect on carbon emssons relatve to energy consumpton s hghest from lower-mddle ncome group. Among key developng countres, Chna s headng to a clear shft to less-carbon ntensve fuel whle Inda and Brazl are stll carbonntensve. Country-specfc contrbuton and comparatve ntensty analyss reveal that mprovements n energy effcency can be accompaned by slower swtch to cleaner or less carbon ntensve fuels. As varatons n energy consumpton are strongly affected by economc expanson, and carbon emssons by producton and technology factors, natonal energy and clmate polces on sustanable use of WIT Transactons on Ecology and the Envronment, Vol 86, 6 WIT Press ISSN 7454 (on-lne)

9 Ar Polluton XIV 675 energy, energy-effcent technologes have to smultaneously support economc development n developng countres. Interpretaton of results on the development trajectory of energy consumpton and carbon emsson s wthn the lmtatons of our decomposton methodology and data set. References [] UNFCC, The kyoto protocol to the conventon on clmate change. Unep/uc/98/, Unted Natons Framework on Clmate Change, France, 998. [] Sun, J.W., Changes n energy consumpton and energy ntensty: a complete decomposton model. Energy Economcs, (), pp. 85, 998. [] Luukkanen, J. & Kavo-oja, J., Meanngful partcpaton n global clmate polcy? comparatve analyss of energy and co effcency dynamcs of key developng countres. Global Envronmental Change,, pp. 7 6,. [4] Luukkanen, J. & Kavo-oja, J., The european unon balancng between co reducton commtments and growth polces: decomposton analyses. Energy Polcy,, pp. 5, 4. [5] Lse, W., Decomposton of co emssons over 98 n turkey. Energy Polcy, pp., 5. Artcle n Press. [6] Aguayo, F. & Gallagher, K., Economc reform, energy, and development: the case of mexcan manufacturng. Workng paper no. -5, Global Development and Envronment Insttute-Tuffs Unversty, USA,. [7] Ebohon, O.J. & Ikeme, A.J., Decomposton analyss of co emsson ntensty between ol-producng and non-ol producng sub-saharan Afrcan countres. Energy Polcy, 5. [8] Sun, J., Co emsson ntenstes n developed countres. Energy Polcy, 998. WIT Transactons on Ecology and the Envronment, Vol 86, 6 WIT Press ISSN 7454 (on-lne)