Proposal of ASPAQ (Asian Science Panel on Air Pollution)

Transcription

1 S 7 3/IGES Side Event at BAQ2012, Hong Kong, Proposal of ASPAQ (Asian Science Panel on Air Pollution) Japanese Research Team on Atmospheric Management Presented by: Hajime Akimoto Asia Center for Air Pollution Research

2 The proposal was made by: Research Team on Atmospheric Management (not by Governmental ) ERTDF S 7 Project (FY ): Scientific Analysis of Regional Air Pollution and Promotion of Air Pollution Management in East Asia Considering Co benefits (Project Leader: H. Akimoto) Theme 3: Research on Possible Regional Framework To Strengthen Atmospheric Management and the Science Policy Interface (Theme Leader: K. Suzuki)

3 Background Why Air Pollution in (East) Asia now? Emissions of air pollutants in Asia have exceeded those of Europe and North America after the year of Even emissions in East Asia (Northeast and Southeast Asia) alone is comparable to Europe and North America as of This situation prompted us to concern with the Asian air pollution locally, regionally, hemispherically and globally.

4 Recent NOx Emission Trends by Continent 2005 Akimoto, Science 2003 HTAP Report

5 High Emissions of Air Pollutants in East Asia Causes Many Aspects of Environmental Problems Air Toxicants: Different Aspects of Air Pollutants Photochemical oxidants (O 3 ), Particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) Biogeochemically Active Species: Acidic and nitrogeneous species Radiatively Active Species (Short-Lived Climate Pollutants): Black carbon, Tropospheric ozone (CH 4, NOx, VOC) We concerns: Bad air quality and health problems in megacities Transbounday air pollution by O 3 and PM 2.5 Air pollution/climate interaction and SLCP co-benefit approach

6 However, we don t have any international convention like CLRTAP, and don t have any framework of scientific discussion (in both natural and policy science) on these issues. Proposal of ASPAQ Aims To establish an epistemic community of Asian scientists; To reach a common understanding among scientists and policy makers; To develop an international initiative for an integrated approach to air pollution and climate change reflecting the views of Asian scientists.

7 Needs for Integration of Asian scientists View on hemispherical or global issues treated by TF HTAP and CCAC (Climate and Clean Air Coalition) For example in CCAC: Which should be controlled for O 3 reduction, NOx/VOC or CH 4? Situation is different between Asia and Europe/North America UNEP Report and CCAC: Solely CH 4 Control Asian policy: NOx/VOC Control should be prioritized. Because NOx/VOC control is more effective to reduce very high concentration of regional ozone in East Asia. In contrast, CH 4 control is effective for reducing global ozone.

8 Changes of Tropospheric Column of NO 2 Observed by Satellite (GOME) Europe and US has already reduced NOx but not in East Asia! A. Richter et al., Nature, 2005

9 Serious Surface Ozone Pollution in Japan as Compared to US and Europe Evaluation of Observed O 3 in terms of USEPA AQS 2008 Should not exceed 75 ppb in 8 hour average Annual 4 th value of 3 year average Ox<=25: 0, 0% 25<Ox<=50: 0, 0% 50<Ox<=75: 241, 22.4% 75<Ox<=100: 701, 65.2% 100<Ox: 133, 12.4% 25<O3<=50: 0 50<O3<=75: 241 (22 %) 75<O3<=100: 701(65 %) 100<O3: 133 (12%) More than 75% of the sites in Japan exceed USEPA AQS 2008 Northeast Asia including Japan is the highest O 3 concentration region in the world

10 Simulated Ozone Pollution in East Asia East Asia is the highest ozone pollution area in the world. Considering economic cost of premature deaths due to O 3 and PM 2.5, co benefit approach by controlling NOx and VOC together with CO 2 may have high incentive in East Asia. Nagashima et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys. (2011) 10

11 Past and Future Emission of NOx in China (1980~2020) NOx (Mt) REAS REAS_PSC Zhang et al. (2007, 2009) REAS_REF REAS_PFC Hao et al. (2002), Tian et al. (2005) Zhang GAINS et al. (2007,2009) Hao et al. (2002), Tian et al. (2005) GAINS Baseline +ACT Low carbon BASE PFC BASE+ACT REF PSC 10 LC 年 Co benefit approach may reduce the emission of O 3 precursors in Ohara,

12 Possible Contents of ASPAQ (1) While the concept of ASPAQ is still in the infant stage, the preliminary research identified several important issues to be considered/discussed: (i) Plausible major functions of ASPAQ Synthesis of newly emerging scientific findings for consensus building among scientists (and policy makers) The scope of targeted area or research? Atmospheric science Impact studies Short term/long term mitigation measures Not only the review of existing research, but also including enhanced research collaboration and joint research activity? 12

13 Possible Contents of ASPAQ (2) Geographical scope Asia as a whole East Asia any other geographical scope Creation of a new body? Reform of an existing body? Existing frameworks may include: Joint Forum on Atmospheric Environment in Asia and the Pacific, EANET, Malé Declaration, Asian Co benefits Partnership (ACP), CAI Asia, NEASPEC, LTP, Any others? Organizational structure of ASPAQ, including the secretariat Possible funding sources National contributions international funding use of existing funding mechanisms such as climate funding? 13

14 Thank you for your attention!