Cross-border effects of climate change mitigation in a multi-regional input-output framework

Transcription

1 Industrial Ecology Programme Norwegian University of Science and Technology Cross-border effects of climate change mitigation in a multi-regional input-output framework Kirsten Svenja Wiebe kirsten.s.wiebe@ntnu.no UNFCCC In-forum training workshop: Use of economic modelling tools related to economic diversification and just transition of workforce and creation of decent work and quality jobs April 30 May , Bonn

2 Green Jobs Assessment Institutions Network (GAIN) Founded on a shared 4 step methodology: 1. Climate policy to analyse? 2. Develop national statistics! Global MRIO database 3. Job outcomes at industry level with Input Output! 4. Social impacts with Social Accounting Matrix! 2

3 Outline 1. Introduction Global multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis 2. Methodology «What-if» type scenarios in MRIOs 3. Results Cross-border effects of climate change mitigation 4. Discussion Lessons to learn 3

4 Global multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis extensions Linking consumers, final and intermediate goods production through global value chains (GVCs) National supply-and-use/input-output tables combined into a global system using bilateral trade data Environmental and socio-economic extensions to the system show impacts of production by industry Main result Environmental or socio-economic impact in region x caused by demand in region y environmental or socioeconomic impact in region a region b region c caused by demand in region a region b region c 4

5 Global multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis Territorial Production-Based Accounts (PBA) - Residential adjustment = Residential PBA in accordance with SNA/SEEA* PBA production-based accounts CBA consumption-based accounts Residential PBA + Imports - Exports = Consumption-Based Accounts * SNA = System of National Accounts, SEEA = System of Environmental-Economic Accounting 5

6 Global multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis Database name Countries Type Detail (ixp)* Time Extensions Approach GTAP-MRIO World (140) MR IOT 57x , 1992, 1995, 1997, 2001, 2004, 2007, GHG + GWP Land use (18 AEZ) Energy volumes Migration Harmonize trade; use IOTs to link trade sets; IOT balanced with trade and macroeconomic data OECD ICIO World (70) MR IOT 34x34 ISIC CO2 Labour Energy Harmonize & balance national SUTs with SNA; balance bilateral trade with SNA, trade link to MRSUT, conversion to symmetric MRIO. WIOD World (40+RoW) MR SUT 35x ISIC 3 56x56 ISIC Labour Energy use CO2 emissions Air emissions Harmonize SUTs; create bilateral trade database for goods and services; adopt import shares to split use into domestic and imported use; trade information for RoW is used to reconcile bilateral trade shares; add extensions Eora World (~ 190) MR SUT/ MR IOT Variable (20-500) Various Gather all data in original formats; populate an initial estimate of all data points in the GMR SUT/IOT, formulate constraints; let routine calculate global MR SUT/IOT EXIOBASE World (44 + 5RoW) MR SUT/ MR IOT 163x200 ISIC emissions 69 IEA energy carriers Water, Land > 40 resources Labour, Labour quality Create SUTs; split use into domestic and imported use; detail and harmonize SUTs; use trade shares to estimate implicit exports; confront with exports in SUT; RAS out differences; add extensions 6

7 «What-if» type scenarios in MRIOs IEA Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) as exogenous information 6-degree, 4-degree and 2-degree Same underlying economic projections Differences in energy use Primary and Final energy demand by Industry, Transport, Buildings, agriculture, fishing, non-specified other (PJ) Electricity generation (TWh) incl fuel inputs (PJ) Gross electricity capacity (GW) Direct CO2 emissions (Mt CO2) CO2 captured (Mt CO2) 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Real GDP growth projection Source: Table A.1 Real GDP growth projections in ETP 2016 (assumed identical across scenarios) World OECD Non-OECD ASEAN Brazil China European Union India Mexico Russia 7

8 «What-if» type scenarios in MRIOs Machinery & Equipment Electricity production IOT change 4 e CO2int IOT change 2 A Input coefficients M&E Elec VA value added y Final demand HOUS GOVE GFCF IOT change 3 IOT change 5 *Based on Wiebe, K. S. Global renewable energy diffusion in an input-output framework in Environmental and Economic Impacts of Decarbonization: Input-output studies on the consequences of the 2015 Paris agreements (eds. Dejuán, Ó., Lenzen, M. & Ángeles Cadarso, M.) (Routledge, 2018) Changes required in an MRIO system for the example of a diffusion of low carbon technologies* IOT change 1: GFCF of technology production Investment in electricity generation capacity IOT change 1 IOT change 2: input coefficients of technology production in A Production of Solar Panels, Wind Turbines, etc. IOT change 3: input coefficients of technology use in A Electricity production by renewables IOT change 4: emission intensity of technology use in e Emissions per unit of monetary output produced IOT change 5: value added (explicit and implicit) in VA Employment and capital costs per unit of monetary output produced Assumption: Constant structures otherwise, e.g. constant import shares at product level 8

9 55% low carbon 35% low carbon «What-if» type scenarios in MRIOs Gross electricity generation (TWh) IEA ETP % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % 6 degree - EU % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % 6 degree - World % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % 2 degree - World Other Ocean Solar CSP Solar PV Wind offshore Wind onshore Geothermal. Hydro (excl. pumped storage) Biomass with CCS Biomass and waste Nuclear Natural gas with CCS Natural gas Coal with CCS Coal Oil 6-degree scenario: proxy for EU climate mitigation action 2-degree scenario: proxy for additional significant climate mitigation efforts outside EU Similar picture for Final energy demand 9

10 Cross-border effects of climate change mitigation Unilateral EU action IEA ETP 6-degree in 2030 relative to historical data in 2014 Consumption-Based Accounting Rest of World - Africa - Americas - Asia Pacific - Europe - Middle East 10

11 Cross-border effects of climate change mitigation Global action IEA ETP 2-degree relative to 6-degree in

12 Lessons to learn Cross-border effects of EU action 6-degree scenario comparison 2030 to 2014 as proxy for climate mitigation response measure Cross-border effects of global action Comparison of 2-degree to 6-degree scenario in 2030 as proxy for climate mitigation response measure Discussion: Which flanking measures can we derive? Examples Import basket of EU from South America (biomass) and Russia (gas) Economic diversification in fossil fuel extracting and exporting countries 12

13 Lessons to learn What-if type scenarios in a global MRIO Response measures are implemented as exogenous drivers Interpretation of «what-if» scenarios for response measures relative to each other, not in absolute terms It shows what happens without flanking measures Helps in defining flanking measures Only short- to medium-term analysis 13

14 Thank you! For more information Follow us @TheIIOA travel stipends to annual International Input-Output Conference available for young researchers from non-high income countries 14