Snohomish County PUD Electric Load Growth: Challenges and Opportunities

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1 Snohomish County PUD Electric Load Growth: Challenges and Opportunities ACEEE Fourth National Conference Energy Efficiency as a Resource Berkeley, CA October 2, 2007

2 Largest PUD in Washington State

3 Power Retail Resource Mix

4 Comparison of Residential Rates

5 Emissions CO2/MWH

6 Customer Categories By Megawatt-hours Sold By Customer Type

7 Population Increase and Aerospace Employment are Driving Growth Population will increase by more than 150,000 people over next ten years. Partly driven by high regional economic expansion. Aerospace employment will increase by 37%. Rising share of growth taking place in north part of county. 450, , , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Total Retail Customers

8 Next Ten Years Load Forecast Summary 85,000 new customer connections 18 average MW growth per year 10 average MW per year of the total is residential growth 8 average MW per year from new residential customers. 2 average MW per year from existing residential customers. Annual Average MW Growth Residential - New, 8 Commercial & Industrial, 8 Residential - Existing, 2 6 average MW of conservation planned Net 12 average MW growth per year requiring new power sources

9 Loads by Housing Type 2006 Average MW Single Family Elec Heat Single Family Non-Elec Heat Multi Family Elec Heat Multi Family Non-Elec Heat Mobile Home Elec Heat Mobile Home Non-Elec Heat

10 Household Characteristics Multi-family homes as a percent of total homes will rise slightly 90% percent of new single-family homes will be built with non-electric heat sources New home electronic devices will increase kwh / household by 5% over next ten years (11% over next twenty years) Share of household income spent on electricity will fall from a little over 1% to below 1% Share of New Single Family Homes with Electric Heat Share of a Residential Customer's Income Spent on Electricity 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% % 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%

11 Heating Fuel Cost Comparison

12 Commercial and Industrial Load Types 2006 Average MW Goods Producing Services Natural Resources and Mining Construction Wood Products Nonmetallic Mineral Products Fabricated Metal Products Computer and Electronic Products Aerospace Products Other Durable Goods Food Products Paper Products Printing Other Nondurable Goods Wholesale & Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Information Financ e Activities Professional & Business Services Educational & Health Services Other Service s State, Local, Federal Government Military

13 Key Customers Boeing -- Builder of Dreamliner 787 US Navy-- Kimberly Clark-- --Home of Abraham Lincoln Aircraft Carrier --Global Leader in Health/Hygiene Products Goodrich--Supplier to Aerospace & Defense Industries Intermec-- Fluke-- Philips Medical-- Immunex-- --Leader in Automated Information & Data Tracking --Manufacturer of Electronic Test & Measuring Tools --Imaging & Patient Monitoring --Biopharmaceutical Protecting Human Health

14 Employment Growth Goods producing employment will grow by 18,000 jobs over next 10 years; service jobs will grow by 49,000 Largest goods producing job gains in construction and aerospace Largest service job gains in wholesale and retail trade, financial services, professional & business services, and education & health services Snohomish County Employment 350 Annual Average Employmebnt (000) Total Services Goods

15 Risk Factors U.S. and/or Puget Sound recession: Net 22% of income earned by Snohomish County residents is earned outside the county, primarily in King County (greater Seattle area) Significant appreciation of US dollar. Washington State and Puget Sound area depend heavily on exports. Portable plug-in heaters in non-electric heat homes can suddenly raise winter loads Air conditioning, portable as well as built-in in units, can suddenly raise summer loads.

16 I-937 & SB-6001 Considerations I-937 requires utilities to implement all cost-effective conservation measures. I-937 requires utilities to use renewable resources to serve a percentage of load: 3% in % in % in 2020 Not all types of renewable resources qualify under I-937 I SB-6001 limits fossil resource options

17 Sno-PUD s Conservation Efforts Long history of program operation 3% Revenues for Public Purpose Currently assessing service area potential and evaluating programs Expect to meet at least 6 amw a year of load growth using conservation Accelerate retrofit; increase penetration in new construction

18 Residential Conservation Portfolio Energy Star appliance, lighting rebates Refrigerator recycling Low income programs Weatherization, heat pump loans and incentives Commercial & Industrial Incentives for retrofit and new construction Sustainable Schools project PowerTrend online billing information tool Planned for 2008 Multifamily new construction & retrofit incentives Expand New Construction incentives Small Business prescriptive initiative

19 IRP Planning for DSM Two-phase effort - Phase I: Potential Assessment Assessment of technical and economic potential Plan for PhaseP II Complete the commercial market assessment Phase II: Update the results for the commercial sector Estimate achievable potential Resource interactions with DR Policy and planning implications

20 Arriving at Achievable Potential Customer count Sector sales Simulation models Secondary sources Measure characteristics Measure interactions Stacking effects Avoided costs Cost effectiveness criteria Avoided costs scenarios Market penetration rates System / Service Area Load Forecast Sector Loads Baseline End-Use Consumption (EUC) Technical Potential by Measure/End-Use Economic Potential by Measure/End-Use Economic Potential Scenarios Low, Base-Case, High Achievable Potential Expected, High Fuel shares Measure applicability Current saturations Measure shares Integrated Resource Plan

21 Baseline Long-term Load Forecast By Sector amw 1,200 1,100 48% growth over planning horizon 1, Year Residential Commercial Industrial

22 Demand-Side Contribution amw 1,200 1,100 1, Economic Potential Technical Potential 2027 Economic Potential represents 46% of load growth Year Forecast Scenario Baseline Forecast Technical Potential Economic Potential

23 Cumulative 20-year Demand-Side Resource Potential amw MW Energy Efficiency Dispersed Generation Emerging Technology Economic potential for DS resources represent: Cumulative savings of 183 amw - and 297 MW in system peak hour 16% of sales and 16% of system peak demand 58% of load growth from

24 Energy Efficiency Resource Potential: Summary Of Results Sector Baseline Sales Technical Potential Economic Potential EP % of Baseline Sales Residential % Commercial % Industrial % Total 1, %

25 Economic Potential - Supply Curve amw Up to $0.01 Up to $0.02 Up to $0.03 Up to $0.04 Up to $0.05 Up to $0.06 Up to $0.07 Up to $0.08 Up to $0.09 All Economic Cost Group Up to $0.01 $0.01 to $0.02 $0.02 to $0.03 $0.03 to $0.04 $0.04 to $0.05 $0.05 to $0.06 $0.06 to $0.07 $0.07 to $0.08 $0.08 to $0.09 Above $0.09

26 Next Steps Phase II Estimate achievable potentials Alternative futures Resource acquisition schedule and ramping Analysis of programmatic gaps

27 DSM Resource Potential: Implications 2027 Total Economic Potential: 183 amw (16% of 2027 sales; 58% of load growth) Average annual potential amw 2020 Achievable* Potential: 141 amw (13% of 2020 sales; 66% of load growth) Average annual potential - nearly 12 amw * assumes acquiring 85% of all discretionary and lost opportunity resources

28 Procurement Activities Underway Conservation is #1 Resource Hampton Biomass Project 7 MW, Online January 2007 Right of first refusal for green tags White Creek Wind Project 20 MW, Final contract Summer 2007 Contract includes green tags Renewables - Request for Proposals RFP issued Summer 2007, Responses due this fall Seeking projects up to 100MW I-937 eligible renewables