Installed Capacity, System Prices, and Revenue for Distributed and Non-Distributed Solar PV

Transcription

1 RESEARCH REPORT Executive Summary: Solar PV Market Forecasts Installed Capacity, System Prices, and Revenue for Distributed and Non-Distributed Solar PV NOTE: This document is a free excerpt of a larger report. If you are interested in purchasing the full report, please contact Navigant Research at research-sales@navigant.com. Published 3Q 2013 Dexter Gauntlett Research Analyst Mackinnon Lawrence Principal Research Analyst

2 Section 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1 Solar PV Market Overview There is no one single solar photovoltaic (PV) market. Local market conditions, retail electric rates, incentives, and type of system can dramatically affect the cost of a system and its applicability to a region. Solar PV, like most energy sources, is deeply intertwined with political ambitions and traditional international relations matters of security, independence, and economics. The market forecasts in this report are therefore based on Navigant Research s assessment of each country s proven commitment to stated policies and goals. Solar PV has a long enough history of deployment globally that it is possible to adequately evaluate the probability of states and countries achieving targets. In most cases, targets will be met or exceeded. Moreover, since technology costs have steadily declined and pathways to further cost reductions are successfully being pursued, solar PV modules continue on their path to commoditization. By the end of 2020, solar PV is expected to be cost-competitive with retail electricity prices without subsidies in a significant portion of the world. 1.2 Market Forecasts This report considers the most likely scenarios of solar PV deployments worldwide. The following is a list of emerging trends that will shape the trajectory of the global solar PV market:» Price drops: Module costs dropped from roughly $4 per watt in 2006 to, in some cases, below $1 per watt in Lower prices are opening up new markets for distributed PV while also helping the technology reach grid parity more quickly in high-cost retail electricity markets.» Leasing programs: In distributed solar PV markets, innovative financing options are emerging that will make the technology available to more homeowners. Solar leasing companies such as SolarCity and SunRun are offering homeowners the option to have solar PV installed on their rooftops with little to no upfront investment.» Governments set ambitious targets, rein in financial incentives: Like most energy technologies, solar PV is reliant on incentives from the government in some part of the value chain. As solar PV technologies have become more cost-effective, and amid a backdrop of government budget cuts, many governments are reining in popular feed-in tariffs (FITs) in leading markets. Germany, Italy, and China have all retooled their FITs, often placing greater emphasis on onsite generation, to prevent an overheated market. The industry is fully aware that lucrative financial incentives will not be around forever. As a result, many companies see 2017 (the year after solar PV investment tax credits expire in the United States) as the year that solar PV will be able to stand on its own without subsidies in most major markets. 1

3 1.2.1 Solar PV Systems Forecast Following years of solar PV module oversupply and unsustainable, often artificially low pricing, 2013 is expected to be the year that the global solar PV market begins to stabilize. Navigant Research s forecast is based on the assumption that PV module prices and installation costs will continue to decline at a much more conservative range of 3% to 8% per year from 2013 to 2020, compared to the drastic price declines in previous years. By 2020, solar PV systems will be installed in the range of $1.50 per watt to $2.19 per watt throughout the world. If this price range is realized, solar PV will largely be at grid parity, without subsidies, in all but the least expensive retail electricity markets. Chart 1.1 Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, World Markets: (GW) North America Europe Asia Pacific Latin America Middle East Africa Total Revenue $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 ($ Billions) 30 $60 20 $40 10 $ $- (Source: Navigant Research) 2

4 Section 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Executive Summary Solar PV Market Overview Market Forecasts Solar PV Systems Forecast... 2 Section Data Assumptions Background Solar PV Segmentation Methodology Policy Assumptions United States Europe Asia Pacific Key Inflection Points Continued Price Declines Inverter and Balance of System Price Declines Electricity from Solar PV Reaching Grid Parity Financial Incentives, Public Policies, and Trade Wars... 8 Section Market Forecasts Forecast Assumptions and Overview Solar PV Forecast by Region

5 3.2.1 North America Europe Asia Pacific Rest of World Solar PV Forecast by Segment Distributed Solar PV Systems Non-Distributed Solar PV Systems Conclusions and Recommendations Section Acronym and Abbreviation List Section Table of Contents Section Table of Charts and Figures Section Scope of Study Sources and Methodology Notes

6 Section 6 TABLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES Chart 1.1 Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, World Markets: Chart 3.1 Average Solar PV System Prices (Non-Weighted) by Region, World Markets: Chart 3.2 Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, World Markets: Chart 3.3 Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, North America: Chart 3.4 Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Europe: Chart 3.5 Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Asia Pacific: Chart 3.6 Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, Rest of World: Chart 3.7 Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity, Leading ROW Countries: Chart 3.8 Percentage of Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by Segment, World Markets: Chart 3.9 Percentage of Distributed Solar PV Annual Installations by Region, World Markets: Chart 3.10 Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: Chart 3.11 Annual Non-Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: Figure 2.1 Solar PV Cheaper than Grid Electricity in Southern Germany*

7 Section 7 SCOPE OF STUDY Navigant Research has prepared this report to present participants at all levels of the renewable energy industry, including equipment and hardware vendors, software companies, installation and service providers, and other balance of system component manufacturers, with a study of the market for solar PV technologies. Its major objective is to determine the state of the industry and likely future growth of solar PV systems. Also provided is a review of the major demand drivers, as well as pricing estimates, that underlie the assumptions behind Navigant Research s forecasts in this report. The purpose of this report is not to provide an exhaustive technical assessment of the technologies and industries covered; rather, it aims to offer a strategic examination from an overall tactical business perspective. Navigant Research strives to identify and examine new market segments to aid readers in the development of their business models. All major global regions are included and the forecast period extends through SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY Navigant Research s industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in preparing Research Reports. The key component of Navigant Research s analysis is primary research gained from phone and in-person interviews with industry leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals. Analysts are diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from every part of the value chain, including but not limited to technology companies, utilities and other service providers, industry associations, government agencies, and the investment community. Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Navigant Research s analysts and its staff of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited within this report. These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analyst s industry expertise, are synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Navigant Research s reports. Great care is taken in making sure that all analysis is well-supported by facts, but where the facts are unknown and assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and are prepared to explain their methodology, both within the body of a report and in direct conversations with clients. Navigant Research is a market research group whose goal is to present an objective, unbiased view of market opportunities within its coverage areas. Navigant Research is not beholden to any special interests and is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to help clients succeed in the industry, unfettered by technology hype, political agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech markets. 26

8 NOTES CAGR refers to compound average annual growth rate, using the formula: CAGR = (End Year Value Start Year Value) (1/steps) 1. CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire timeframe in the title. Where data for fewer years are given, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter timeframes may be given as well. Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues, shipments, and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are expressed in year 2013 U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. 27

9 Published 3Q Navigant Consulting, Inc Pearl Street, Suite 300 Boulder, CO USA Tel: This publication is provided by Navigant Research, a part of Navigant Consulting, Inc. ( Navigant ), and has been provided for informational purposes only. This publication is intended for the sole and exclusive use of the original purchaser under terms and conditions agreed to by the parties. This publication may not otherwise be reproduced, recorded, photocopied, distributed, displayed, modified, extracted, accessed, or used without the express written permission of Navigant. Navigant makes no claim to any government data and other data obtained from public sources found in this publication (whether or not the owners of such data are noted in this publication), and makes no express or implied warranty, guaranty, or representation concerning the information contained in this publication, its merchantability, or its fitness for a particular purpose or function. Any reference to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply an endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by Navigant. Navigant does not assume, and hereby disclaims, any liability that may result from any reliance on or use of any information contained in this publication, or for any loss or damage caused by errors or omissions in this publication. If you do not have permission from Navigant covering this publication, please refrain from accessing or using this publication. Please contact Navigant at research-info@navigant.com to obtain permission to use this publication Navigant Consulting, Inc. Notice: No material in this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means, in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Navigant Consulting, Inc. 28