HEU MINIMISATION CHALLENGES. THE SUPPLY OF THE MEDICAL ISOTOPE 99-MOLYBDENUM/99m- TECHNETIUM

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1 HEU MINIMISATION CHALLENGES THE SUPPLY OF THE MEDICAL ISOTOPE 99-MOLYBDENUM/99m- TECHNETIUM Chad Westmacott Nuclear Development Division OECD Nuclear Energy Agency

2 99m Tc is the decay product of 99 Mo Used in 80% of all nuclear medicine procedures Key tool for nuclear diagnostic imaging Powerful and non-invasive Identification of common diseases at early stages Cardiac ailments, cancers Track disease progression and provide predictive information about success of therapy options Used by about 30 million patients a year globally However, supply is no longer reliable Shortages over the past few years Current infrastructure not sufficient However most (but not all) of the world s 99 Mo comes from the irradiation of highly enriched uranium targets chad.westmacott@oecd.org 2 nd International Symposium on HEU Minimisation 24 January

3 Target irradiation 99 Mo extraction 99 Mo purification Generator manufacturers NRU AECL MDS Nordion MARIA Covidien US Lantheus Medical Imaging North America HFR Covidien Covidien EU GE Healthcare BR-2 IBA Europe OSIRIS IRE Fuji NMP Asia LVR-15 NTP SAFARI-1 NTP AEC Amersham ANSTO Health Rest of world OPAL ANSTO Health 2 nd International Symposium on HEU Minimisation 24 January Others Target irradiation in research reactors: Green LEU fuel; Orange HEU fuel 99 Mo extraction and purification: Green LEU targets; Orange HEU targets

4 LEU Conversion agreed to by all major 99 Mo producing nations For important non-proliferation reasons No direct market justification externality Will have impact on producers and users of 99 Mo/ 99m Tc less 235 U Affect the available capacity to produce: global markets Increase costs of developing product: cost/price impacts Coming during period of significant transition to provide reliable supply Ageing fleet faces unexpected and prolonged shutdowns; permanent shutdowns Regional limitations on processing capacity can limit full use of reactors in outage situations OECD issued policy approach to encourage reliable supply 6 principles mainly directed to economic sustainability, calling for full-cost recovery and paying for outage reserve capacity Also calls for conversion to LEU targets security of supply chad.westmacott@oecd.org 2 nd International Symposium on HEU Minimisation 24 January

5 Annual six-day curies EOP Annual six-day curies EOP / Current Supply vs. Demand Conservative Potential Supply vs. Demand Demand at 5% annual growth 2021 Demand at 5% annual growth Demand from NEA study Maximum possible supply capacity from current reactor fleet Maximum reactor production with processing limits Normal supply from current reactor fleet Normal reactor production with processing limits Demand from NEA study Potential supply from current and new entrants - conservative scenario 1 Potential supply from current and new entrants - conservative scenario 2 Potential supply from current and new entrants - conservative scenario 3 Potential supply from current and new entrants - conservative 2 and no commercial projects chad.westmacott@oecd.org 2 nd International Symposium on HEU Minimisation 24 January

6 Past and on-going work to study the technical side of conversion (IAEA): challenges and opportunities Very few publicly-available studies on the market impact NEA studying the affect on supply security Would enough 99 Mo/ 99m Tc be available and at what cost? Develop policy options and recommendations to encourage smoothest market transition to LEU possible From preliminary findings Expect to find that costs will be important but not prohibitive Government support will be necessary, as noted in policy Capacity impacts will occur from less 99 Mo produced, but no conversion related shutdowns expected 2 nd International Symposium on HEU Minimisation 24 January

7 Need to recognise difficult Many actions needed by many stakeholders: governments, reactor operators, processors, generator manufacturers, regulatory bodies (nuclear and health) Time is needed to allow transition while ensuring security of supply: infrastructure changes, regulatory approvals Market forces: LEU-based 99 Mo will likely be more expensive and cheaper is better for end-user ( 99m Tc is the same) P.4: Governments should support conversion to use LEU targets R&D Examine options for market justification to using LEU targets Meantime, consider financial support of price differential Encourage development of alternatives NEA continuing to study issue, leading to recommended options to encourage conversion smoothly Committed actions/timelines to conversion by most producers chad.westmacott@oecd.org 2 nd International Symposium on HEU Minimisation 24 January

8 Prices for 99 Mo Government $/ for capital costs Government $/ for operations Government awareness Other reactors Government monitoring and safety Market functioning with subsidies Reactor shutdowns: shortages and enduser prices Sustainable economics: upstream prices Supply chain paying unsustainable prices Time Demand Side Management Supply chain concern Supply chain funding Transition to full-cost recovery /ORC 2 nd International Symposium on HEU Minimisation 24 January

9 Prices for 99 Mo Government monitoring and safety Government support for conversion Sustainable economics: upstream prices LEU-based 99 Mo HEU-based 99 Mo Economically sustainable LEU-based 99 Mo with full-cost recovery and ORC Supply chain funding Transition to full-cost recovery /ORC Supply chain funding Transition to LEU med-radio Time 2 nd International Symposium on HEU Minimisation 24 January