Nuclear Economics 2 nd Part

Transcription

1 Nuclear Economics 2 nd Part Dr. E. E. Pilat MIT NSED CANES Center for Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems

2 Fuel Cost Rate vs Burnup Following slides show fuel cost mill rate and its components vs burnup Unit costs are low by today s values

3 6 Base Case Tails: 0.30, U: $15, SWU: $75, FAB: $200/kg, Carry 0.10, DOE: 1.0 mills 5 Fuel cost mills/kwh year 3.0 region Discharge burnup GWD/MTU Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.

4 6 Direct Only - No Carrying Tails: 0.30, U: $15, SWU: $75, FAB: $200/kg, Carry 0.00, DOE: 1.0 mills 5 Fuel cost mills/kwh year 3.0 region Discharge burnup GWD/MTU Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.

5 6 Direct U308 Only Tails: 0.30, U: $15, SWU: $0, FAB: $0/kg, Carry 0.00, DOE: 0.0 mills Fuel cost mills/kwh year 3.0 region Discharge burnup GWD/MTU Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.

6 6 Total Depletion (U308+Conv+SWU+INT) Tails: 0.30, U: $15, SWU: $75, FAB: $0/kg, Carry 0.10, DOE: 0.0 mills Fuel cost mills/kwh year 3.0 region Discharge burnup GWD/MTU Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.

7 6 Direct FAB Tails: 0.30, U: $0, SWU: $0, FAB: $200/kg, Carry 0.00, DOE: 0.0 mills region Fuel cost mills/kwh Discharge burnup GWD/MTU Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.

8 6 1.5 Year and 2.0 Year Tails: 0.30, U: $15, SWU: $75, FAB: $200/kg, Carry 0.10, DOE: 1.0 mills 5 Fuel cost mills/kwh year 2.0 year Discharge burnup GWD/MTU Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.

9 Disposal at $700/KGU (EUROPE) Tails: 0.30, U: $25, SWU: $100, FAB: $900/kg, Carry 0.10, DOE: 0.0 mills 1.5 year 3.0 region Fuel cost mills/kwh Discharge burnup GWD/MTU Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.

10 2006 Fuel Costs by Plant

11 Fuel Contracts Include Product purchase Terms and conditions Options

12 Terms & Conditions Duration of contract Calendar time or reactor cycles Amounts to be purchased Absolute or % of requirements Notification terms Delivery terms What, where, when, what condition it s in Warranty

13 Terms & Conditions 2 Payment terms Base price Escalation terms Payment dates Calendar or relative Who has title, insurance Possibility of suspension of work Possibility of cancellation

14 Options Change amount, delivery date, enrichment with some lead time Change fuel mechanical design Change burnable poison Have fab vendor perform core design work Failed fuel testing

15 Two Types of Pricing Base price escalated Escalation index can be anything (gnp deflator, SIC index, privately published indices for anything) Market based Some percentage more or less than published market price of this product Both kinds can include floors and ceilings

16 Payments to US HLW Fund Average ~ $280/kgU Source: NUREG 1350 Vol 22

17 HLW Payment cont d

18 There is No Single Price for U $70.00 Dollars per pound U 2 O 2 equivalent $60.00 $50.00 $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $10.00 $ Contract-specified (Fixed and base-escalated) pricing Spot-market pricing Other pricing Average price for uranium purchased by owners and operators of U.S. civilian nuclear power reactors by pricing mechanisms and delivery year, Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.

19 Utility Balance Sheet (Net Nuclear Fuel ~ $85 million/plant) Consolidated Balance Sheet U.S. Shareholder-Owned Electric Utilities ($ Millions) 12/31/ /31/2007 PP&E in service, gross Accumulated depreciation Net property in service Construction work in progress Net nuclear fuel Other property Net property & equipment Cash & cash equivalents Accounts receivable Inventories Other current assets Total current assets Total investments Other assets 927, , , , , ,233 58,946 8,802 1, ,951 19,398 44,232 26,865 59, ,995 62, ,558 47,467 7,336 2, ,502 14,151 44,091 23,497 56, ,020 69, ,180 Total Assets 1,105,175 1,028,758 Source:EEI 2008 Financial Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.

20 Capital Cost CC " 100( FCR) ( UCC) 8766L UCC = As built unit capital cost ($per KWe) FCR = Fixed charge rate L = Lifetime capacity factor

21 Capital Cost 2 Start with an overnight cost at project start As built cost includes escalation from project start to time of payment for component As built cost includes interest during construction (AFUDC) from time of payment to start of operation

22 Capital Cost 3 FCR ~ x / [1 (1 + x) n ] x ~ (1 t) b r b + (1 b)r s = cost of money t = income tax rate b = bond fraction r b = return on bonds r s = return on stock n = book life of plant

23 Capital Cost 4 Easier to use spreadsheet Today r s ~ 10.5% Today r b varies from 5 to 15%

24 How Is Nuke Integrated Into Grid? Power cost = capital + production Production = O&M + Fuel System operators dispatch plants according to cost Nukes have high capital costs so like to run at high capacity factor

25 Production Costs Fuel is small fraction of nuclear $/MWh Average Cost to Produce Electricity U.S. Electric Utility and Non-Utility Cost of fuel Non-fuel O&M Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Oil Hydro Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Oil Hydro Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Oil Hydro Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Oil Hydro Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Oil Hydro Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Oil Hydro Image by MIT OpenCourseWare. Source: EEI 2008 Financial Review

26 Load Duration Curves for New Eng. (50% of time, load > 16,000 MW) 24,000 New England Hourly Load Curves Q1 22,000 System load (MW) 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12, ,000 8,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percent of Hours Source: ISO NE 2009Q1 Market Rpt Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.

27 Price Duration Curves for New Eng. 50% of time, price> $40/MWh in 2009 $275 $250 $225 $200 New England Hourly RT System Price Duration Curves , Q1 Prices < $275 $/MW $175 $150 $125 $100 $ $50 $25 $ % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percent of Hours Image by MIT OpenCourseWare. Source: ISO-NE 2009Q1 Market Rpt

28 Local Marginal Prices in New Eng. $150 Real-Time LMPs for Hub and External Nodes September 21-27, 2009 $/MWh $100 $50 $0 21 Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep 09 Date HQ HG HQ VII NY N-AC NY Hub NB NY-CSC Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.

29 New England Grid Info New England load flows and marginal costs Daily New England loads:

30 MIT OpenCourseWare Systems Analysis of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Fall 2009 For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: