Modelling impacts of land use change on environmental functions

Transcription

1 Modelling impacts of land use change on environmental functions From research to practice Transferprojekt T6 LUCIA- Choice Uni Hohenheim Georg Cadisch Thomas Hilger Carsten Marohn LUCIA- Watershed LUCIA- Soil LUCIA- Crop Land Development Departments Thailand/Vietnam National Universities (KU, HUA, HUS)

2 Transfer Concept: Project Transfer outcomes of research to stakeholders Analysis Capacity building Modelling Validation Scenarios, Application Results of the Uplands Program: Land Use Change Impact Assessment tool (LUCIA) Data bases

3 Aims Transfer and implementiation of modelling approaches for improved land use planning in Thailand and Vietnam Landscape analysis and scenario development in cooperation with local partner institutions Model adjustment and further development based on user demand Capacity building in environmental modelling Analysis Capacity building Modelling Validation Scenarios, Application

4 Target groups Land use planning institutions on the regional scale Extension agencies at the plot and watershed scale Decision-makers at the national and regional level Universities at the national level

5 Partner institutions Land use planning agencies in Thailand and Vietnam Land Development Department, Bangkok General Department of Land Administration, Hanoi National Universities in Thailand und Vietnam Kasetsart University, Bangkok, Institute for soil sciences, Hanoi University of Agriculture (HUA), Centre for Agricultural Research and Ecological Studies Hanoi University of Science (HUS), Institute for Geography

6 Dynamic approaches for land use planning Water Nutrient Light Capture in Agroforesty Systems (WaNuLCAS) - Plot-scale research questions Forest, Agroforest, Low-value Landscape Or Wasteland? (FALLOW) - Semi-quantitative model for catchments of various area under conditions of low data availability Land Use Change Impact Assessment (LUCIA) - Land Use Change Impact Assessment: Agricultural production and environmental functions - Developed in the Uplands ProgramSFB 564 for watersheds in tropical mountains regions currently used in research and university teaching (UHOH, CMU)

7 Environmental degradation (erosion, siltation etc) as a consequence of land use change Population pressure and socio-economical changes Deforestation Income Land use intensification: annual (cash) crops Lowland rice, fish ponds Soil fertility in - upland - lowland Schmitter et al., 2008, modified

8 Combining layers of spatial information to project impacts of land use and management under different scenarios LUCIA Model outputs LUCIA outputs spatially explicit, dynamic Source: PCRaster manual Adopted from Marohn et al. (accepted)

9 Demand for land use modelling by the partner institutions Land use planning - Evaluate impacts of new land use and management approaches on environmental impacts - C-Sequestration - Environmental impact assessment, REDD+ - Effective water use (planting time, irrigation, climate change) - Soil conservation (erosion, leaching) - Food security - Productivity, soil fertility - Land use change, climate change Teaching and capacity building - Modules and courses in agricultural and environmental modelling at the landscape scale - Supervision of MSc/PhD studies in modelling - Education of future planners, researchers and managers - Improved systems undersanding and interdisciplinary cooperation

10 Contributions by the partner institutions Disseminating the model(s) (PhD students from LDD and GLDA will be multiplicators) in the institutions Maps: Geology, soils, satellite images and aerial ground data (interviews. measurements) on land use, household economy, weather (statistics) Knowledge of local conditions (help in building realistsic scenarios) Network of extensionists and contacts to farmers Tandem approach: Land planning institutions - universities

11 Success factors Successful application of the models through local stakeholders using local data and acceptance by stakeholders More effective land use planning through better systems understanding Transfer of the models to student, encourage systems thinking and applied research Validation of LUCIA, development of new modules on demand of the stakeholders Innovation Exchange between developers and users through on demand - model development Highlighting users perspective in model development Better acceptance of the model among users

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