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1 Click to edit Master title style The Future of Coal February 16 th, 2010 Megan Parsons Energy Development Burns & McDonnell Engineering 1

2 Click Planning to edit for Master Baseload title Generation style Design, Construction, and Permitting Schedules require several years...we need to think ahead! Drivers 10 15% Demand Growth by 2020 Many old coal units being retired Difficulties Environmental Policy? Fuel Costs? 2

3 Click Current to Baseload edit Master Generation title style Resources EIA 2009 National Electric Utility Nuclear 18% Other 0% Hydroelectric 10% Coal 70 % Baseload Generation Coal 56% Renewable 1% Natural Gas 14% Oil 1% Renewable generation represents wind, solar, biomass, MSW, and geothermal. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Net Generation by Energy Source: Electric Utilities

4 Click What to Options edit Master are There? title style Typical Baseload options considered today: Advanced Coal 600 MW Nuclear 1100 MW Natural Gas Combined Cycle 600 MW Woody Biomass 50 MW Wind w/ Natural Gas Backup 100 MW 2.5 MW Wind Turbines w/ Reciprocating Engines 4

5 Click Generation to edit Planning Master title Considerations style Electric Demand Load growth, energy efficiency Fuel Supply/Demand, forecasts, transportation, markets Capital and Operating Costs Inflation, technology development Emissions Costs Power Market Regulatory Impact Etc 5

6 Click Baseload to edit Generation Master title Costs style 30 year Levelized Busbar Cost (2017$) $/MWh $240 $220 $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 Fuel O&M Capital $0 Supercritical PC (600 MW) IGCC (620 MW) Nuclear (1,100 MW) Biomass (50 MW) Simple Cycle (600 MW) Combined Cycle (600 MW) Wind w/ Recip Engine Backup (100 MW each) Delivered fuel costs based on coal at $2.31 /MMBtu, biomass at $5.80/MMBtu and gas at $7.32 /MMBtu (2017). Costs based on Burns & McDonnell s experience as an EPC contractor and publicly available information. 6

7 Click The Carbon to edit Impact Master title style $150 $140 $ year Levelized Busbar Cost vs Carbon Tax Supercritical PC (600 MW) Combined Cycle (600 MW) Nuclear (1,100 MW) $/MWh $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 CO 2 Tax ($/ton) CO 2 tax applied to 90% of uncontrolled carbon emissions. 7

8 Click What to are edit our Master COAL Options? title style Pulverized Coal (PC) Low capital & operations PC Proven, reliable Advanced steam conditions CFB Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) Fuel flexibility, 100% pet coke and biomass blends Units ~400 MW and smaller Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) Flexibility Coal to Gas or Power Low emissions & least anticipated cost for CO2 Capture IGCC 8

9 Click Coal Generation to edit Master Costs title style 30 year Levelized Busbar Cost (2017$) $160 $140 $120 $/MWh $100 $80 $60 Fuel O&M Capital $40 $20 $0 Supercritical PC (600 MW) CFB (600 MW) IGCC (620 MW) Supercritical PC w/ CO2 Capture (450 MW) CFB w/ CO2 Capture (450 MW) IGCC w/ CO2 Capture (510 MW) Coal costs based on coal price of $2.31 / MMBtu (2017). CO 2 capture equipment assumes 90% capture capability. Costs based on Burns & McDonnell s experience as an EPC contractor and publicly available information. 9

10 Click Advancing to edit Coal Master title style Historical Today and Tomorrow Subcritical 2500 psig 900 F 1000 F Supercritical 3700 psig F Ultra Supercritical 4250 psig F 9,900 Btu/kWh 8,800 Btu/kWh 8,700 Btu/kWh SNCR, ESP Steam Drum Carbon Steel Tubes SCR, WFGD, Baghouse, Acid Gas Sorbent SS Alloy Tubes SCR, WFGD, Baghouse, Acid Gas Sorbent SS Alloy Tubes 10

11 Click Pulverized to edit Coal Master Technology title style PC Steam Cycle Performance Comparison % Improvement in Heat Rate Base operation / / / / / / / Operational Conditions 11

12 Click PC Coal to edit Costs Master are Sensitive! title style PC Steam Conditions Sensitivity Analysis $20 $0 ($20) Base $/MWh ($40) ($60) ($80) Fuel +50% $15/ton CO2 ($100) ($120) Fuel +100% ($140) ($160) $30/ton CO2 Subcritical Supercritical Ultra Supercritical Steam Conditions 12

13 Click Summary to edit Master title style Coal is a major part of our generation mix Pulverized Coal is low cost, proven, stable technology Coal technology continues to advance in efficiency Coal development is stalled by undecided environmental policy 13

14 Click Contact to edit Information Master title style Megan Parsons, PE Development Engineer, Energy Division Burns & McDonnell Direct: Main: Fax: Website: 14